FedUpUSA

Archive for December 16th, 2009

Courtesy of David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff

It’s that time of the year when ‘sell-side’ research departments publish their Year-Ahead Reports (as I once did in the not-too-distant past); as do all the financial magazines.

I realized after countless emails and phone conversations (in that order) that there is a very high expectation that I publish one too. I honestly have no intention of publishing a specific set of forecasts in my current role as the Chief Economist and Strategist for Gluskin Sheff for public consumption — the granularity of my recommendations is reserved for our Investment team and our client base. Be that as it may, I am more than happy to comment on what I see as an emerging consensus and my general view on the direction of the economy and the markets in the coming year without getting into too much detail or numerical forecasts, which are the domain of the ‘sell-side’ macro teams globally.

At the outset, let it be known that when I read everyone else’s year-ahead prognostications, all I can think of is, “where do I store this stuff for a year so I can look back and say ‘That was so wrong!’.” It’s not that the reports are always bullish every year; it is that they seem so contrived. And, as I mentioned in the December 10th edition of Breakfast with Dave, this year, probably like most years, there seems to be a remarkable level of agreement. Based on my reading, here is what I conclude the consensus views are as we head into 2010:

• Muted recovery, but positive growth, for sure! No risk of a ‘double dip’.
• Equity markets up!
• A barbell strategy of domestic multinational blue chips and emerging market equities.
  The U.S. dollar is…neutral, but we did locate more bulls than bears (so much for the ‘carry trade’ thesis).
• Positive on commodities for the most part.
• Concerned about government balance sheets, and therefore…
• …Bearish on long term government bonds because they are the ‘competition’ and, after all, who would tie their money up for 10 years at 3.5% when you can lose 22% in stocks? And, therefore…
• …Bullish on spread product (as long as it’s not long-term). And, therefore…
• …Really comfortable with high yield (just for the coupon and the view that default rates will come down).
• Certain that volatility will not be an impediment.
• The Fed will begin to raise rates in the second half of the year, but that this will have no impact since they will still be low.

So here we are with a glorious opportunity to reintroduce Bob Farrell’s Rule 8: “When all forecasts and experts agree, something else is going to happen.”

That being said, these economists and strategists, many of whom I know, are smart guys (and gals) and they are human. To ‘talk your book’ is human; to have the courage to ‘buck the consensus’ is divine. I too am human; I also like to feel that I have courage of my convictions; and I too have a “book” (of sorts — it’s called reputation). But I have decided to take the opportunity of the “Year-Ahead Moment” to transition from sell-side to buy-side and more importantly, to reflect on the past year and really try to prognosticate from the gut. You would be surprised how a blend of intuition and experience can make a difference in a cycle like the one we are in that has absolutely nothing in common with the other recessions of the post-WWII era.

Forecasting is a humbling profession even in the best of times and I have learned a lot in the past year, especially from my partners here at Gluskin Sheff who realizes all too well that:

1. It is what is embedded in asset prices benchmarked against the forecast that is of utmost importance for investors;
2. The focus of any forecast must take into account the reality that minimizing portfolio risks is at least as critical as maximizing the returns, and;
3. Every forecast has an error term and the range around any projection in a post-bubble credit collapse can be extremely wide.

I do not view the economic events of the last two years as a classic recession/recovery phase. They only exist in the context of a secular credit expansions and contractions. We are in a post-credit bubble credit collapse that is ongoing, à la Bob Farrell’s Rule 4: “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.”

Mainstream economists called this downturn “The Great Recession”. This is truly a gentle way of saying “Depression”. When we can have the courage to come to grips with the fact that we did in fact experience a depression of sorts, which is by definition a credit event, then and only then can we draw a conclusion that a sustainable recovery will not get underway until the ratio of household credit to personal disposable income reverts to the mean (and goes to an excess in the opposite direction). I know it sounds harsh, but we shall endure — believe it. Transition is rarely without pain.

The ratio of household debt to disposable income is up from a 30% ratio back in the 1950s to 125% today (though down from 139% at the peak in 2007). Mean reverting to a ratio closer to 60% means that the deleveraging process will be a multi-year event and by the time it is over, more than $7 trillion in additional household credit will have to be extinguished. For more on this see the unbelievably grotesque article on the front page of last Thursday’s (December 10) Wall Street Journal — The New American Dream.

Perhaps inflation is a consensus forecast but deflation is the present day reality and often lingers for years following a busted asset and credit bubble of the magnitude we have endured over the past two years. The fact that China’s voracious appetite for basic materials will continue to exert upward pressure on commodity prices does not detract from this view, especially given the widespread excess capacity in the manufacturing sector and the new frugality that has gripped, and in many cases, been embraced by the retail sector. Higher raw material prices, owing to developments in Asia as opposed to demand pressures here at home, will prove to be a sustained source of profit margin compression for many sectors and companies linked to finished consumer goods and services.

So, much of what I have read in various Year-Ahead Reports predict corporate earnings, GDP growth here and abroad, interest rates and relative values of currencies. As I mentioned earlier, the error term is bound to be very wide in this new paradigm (since WWII) of a secular credit collapse. GDP growth in 1934 was 10%, but the Depression wasn’t over until 1940.

Since 1989, the Japanese stock market has had no fewer than four 50%-plus rallies and there still has been no period of growth that can be called a sustained expansion. Today, we have our own special set of conditions and it is bound to be tricky as is typical during a post-bubble credit collapse, no matter how intense the government reaction. Prematurely committing to the ‘risk’ trade is probably going to be the most lamentable action over the next few years.

Suffice it to say, we believe that the dominant focus will be on capital preservation and income orientation, whether that be in bonds, hybrids, hedge fund strategies, and a consistent focus on reliable dividend growth and dividend yield would seem to be in order. To reiterate, I see the range of outcomes in the financial markets and the economy to be extremely wide at the current time. But one conclusion I think we can agree on is the need to maintain defensive strategies and minimize volatility and downside risks as well as to focus on where the secular fundamentals are positive such, as in fixed-income and in equity sectors that lever off the commodity sector.

This, in turn, underscores my primary focus of favouring Canadian dollar based investments over the U.S. because at no time in my professional life have the downside risks — economic, fiscal, financial and political — been so low on a relative basis and the upside potential so high as is the case today. The near-2,000 basis point gap this year between the TSX and the S&P 500 — the former leading — should be taken in the context of being just past the halfway point of a secular (ie, 16-18 year) period of outperformance. Northern exposure never felt this hot.

From Dow Jones:

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday approved a short-term $290 billion extension in the nation’s debt ceiling, delaying a decision until February about a larger increase in the borrowing cap.

The vote comes less than a week after House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) said he intended to seek a $1.8 trillion increase in the ceiling to support federal government borrowing through 2010.

A decision was made to seek the more modest increase after it became clear the larger increase may have failed to win support in the Senate.

The Senate must still take up the two month increase, which it is expected to do next week.

House lawmakers voted by a razor thing margin of 218-214 to pass the borrowing increase. On most major pieces of legislation, 218 votes are required for approval in the House.

Not a single Republican lawmaker voted to support the hike. They argued that increasing the debt ceiling was giving the Democratic majority and the Obama administration a license to spend more money.

The increase in the debt limit raises the total debt the federal government can hold to $12.394 billion from $12.104 billion.

Treasury officials have warned the current cap will shortly be hit, requiring the ceiling to be increased.

Increasing the debt ceiling is largely symbolic as the public debt is the accumulation of past deficits, or money already spent.

But were the U.S. to breach its debt limit, it would default on its obligations, potentially lose its prized top-shelf credit rating and have to pay significantly higher interest to its creditors

Such a scenario, albeit an extremely unlikely one, would have tremendous ramifications for the wider financial markets.

The federal budget deficit reached historic levels of $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009. Through the first two months of fiscal 2010, the government is on pace to surpass that level.

Release Date: December 16, 2009

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating.

Those of you without jobs are now rolling off the unemployment rolls, so you don’t count any more.  We in Washington DC and on Wall Street have our huge bonuses back, and thus the labor market – what we see of it anyway, is doing better.

The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.

Credit continues to contract as shown by our most-recent Z.1 (below), but we’re not going to tell you that:

This, of course, means that people are spending a higher percentage of their incomes.  That in turn means that the squeeze – especially on the middle class - is getting acute.

Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

Walmart and others are laying off seasonal help ahead of Christmas because, surprise-surprise, sales suck!

Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth.

We continue to pump the markets with every opportunity but unfortunately the effects are failing.  We are thus forced to lie lest you discern that the curtains are on fire and bolt for the door.

Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

Our stated purpose was to restart private credit expansion.  We failed.  See the above chart.  We are thus forced to lie (didn’t you read it the first time?)

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

Gasoline is up 38% y/o/y, but this doesn’t count as “inflation.”  In point of fact, we do have deflation – and lots of it – since credit is the monetary base.  Oops.  (There’s that damn chart up above again!)

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

I hear there is exceptionally strong support at zero.  For everything.

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt.

We will keep illegally buying Fannie and Freddie paper.  We will also keep calling them “agencies” even though they are clearly not, as defined by The United States government itself.  Remember, we lie.

In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

We’re preparing to do this:

(That, by the way, is why there’s an ammunition shortage!)

In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets, the Committee and the Board of Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve’s special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s announcement of June 25, 2009. These facilities include the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility. The Federal Reserve will also be working with its central bank counterparties to close its temporary liquidity swap arrangements by February 1. The Federal Reserve expects that amounts provided under the Term Auction Facility will continue to be scaled back in early 2010. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30, 2010, for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31, 2010, for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

All this crap failed to work – again, as I said before, the goal was to restart private credit expansion.  It didn’t – it’s still contracting.  Indeed, the really bad news is that even with all the government games total credit outstanding is contracting EVEN WITH government “borrow and spend” – an unprecedented problem.

At some point you have to give up.  That point is now.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Go long gasoline and matches for this feature presentation in The New Year:

No sooner did Jeff Merkley announce his opposition to Bernanke ahead of tomorrow’s reconfirmation farce/hearing, than key Republican Senator John McCain said that he was leaning against voting for the the Chairman. McCain said he would favor either former Fed Chief (and apparently only sane economist in the Administration) Paul Volcker, or ex-Treasury official, and creator of negative implied interest rates, John Taylor.

Some more from Dow Jones:

McCain joins at least two other Republicans who plan to oppose Bernanke’s renomination. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) has also said he opposes Bernanke’s renomination.Despite this, Bernanke is widely expected to be approved by the Senate for a second term. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to hold a confirmation vote on Bernanke Thursday morning.A spokeswoman for the panel said there is no way for a member to delay Thursday’s vote. Other Senate committees, like the Judiciary Committee, allow members to delay a vote by a week.

The logical political implications of this move are material: should Democrats be unable to maintain their majority hold after the upcoming mid-term elections, the populist tide against the Fed will be a substantial pent up force in 2011. How that would shape the org chart of the Fed subsequently is still unknown but it likely would not be in favor of the Man of the Year.

Unemployment causing major life changes, mental health issues for millions
More than half of the nation’s unemployed workers have borrowed money from friends or relatives since losing their jobs. An equal number have cut back on doctor visits or medical treatments because they are out of work.

Almost half have suffered from depression or anxiety . About 4 in 10 parents have noticed behavioral changes in their children that they attribute to their difficulties in finding work.

Joblessness has wreaked financial and emotional havoc on the lives of many of those out of work, according to a New York Times/CBS News poll of unemployed adults, causing major life changes, mental health issues and trouble maintaining even basic necessities.
The results of the poll, which surveyed 708 unemployed adults from Dec. 5 to Dec. 10 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, help to lay bare the depth of the trauma experienced by millions across the country who are out of work as the jobless rate hovers at 10 percent and, in particular, as the ranks of the long-term unemployed soar.

Roughly half of the respondents described the recession as a hardship that had caused fundamental changes in their lives. Generally, those who have been out of work longer reported experiencing more acute financial and emotional effects.

“I lost my job in March, and from there on, everything went downhill,” said Vicky Newton, 38, of Mount Pleasant, Mich., a single mother who had been a customer-service representative in an insurance agency.
LINK HERE

Real estate analysts predict continued gloom for Las Vegas
LINK HERE

Basel is of course “not accountable” to anyone, as it deliberates in secret.  But if you’re wondering where the rally came from in the Nikkei and Europe today, this is why….

The transition period for tighter capital requirements will probably start in 2012 or 2013, according to officials who declined to be identified because the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s deliberations are private. Bank stocks in Asia and Europe rallied.

By delaying the introduction of stricter standards, regulators give banks longer to repair balance sheets weakened by $1.71 trillion of losses and writedowns during the credit crisis. The Group of 20 Nations agreed in April that banks should hold more and better quality capital to reduce risks to the financial system.

Let me fix that second paragraph:

By delaying the introduction of stricter standards, regulators give banks longer to repair balance sheets allow banks to lie about their losses of weakened by $1.71 trillion of losses and writedowns during the credit crisis. The Group of 20 Nations agreed in April that banks should hold more and better quality capital to reduce risks to the financial system should lie more frequently and flagrantly about their asset quality so as to bonus out money they don’t really have, even though doing so will virtually guarantee that cash flow will become insufficient in the coming years and lead to a global financial meltdown worse than the fall of 2008.

You heard it here first folks.  $1 trillion in HELOCs on balance sheets here in the US, many of them worth exactly nothing, all carried at or near PAR (100 cents on the dollar), and all a “great game” until they either mature or the underlying first mortgage forecloses – at which point the detonation that has been hidden is uncovered, revealing only a smoking hole where an asset was claimed to be.