FedUpUSA

Archive for December, 2009

Here is a comparison of real house prices and the unemployment rate using the LoanPerformance national house price data (starts in 1976) and Case-Shiller Composite 10 index (starts in 1987). Both indexes are adjusted by CPI less shelter. This is an update to a post earlier this year.

Click on image for larger graph in new window.

The two previous national declines in real house prices are evident on the graph (early ’80s and early ’90s). The dashed green lines are drawn at the peak of the unemployment rate following the peak in house prices.

In the early ’80s, real house prices declined until the unemployment rate peaked, and then increased sluggishly for a few years. Following the late 1980s housing bubble, real house prices declined for several years after the unemployment rate peaked.

Although there are periods when there is no relationship between the unemployment rate and house prices, this graph suggests that house prices will not bottom (in real terms) until the unemployment rate peaks (or later, especially since the current bubble dwarfs those previous housing bubbles). This also suggests that real house prices are probably 10% or more too high on a national basis.

Many Americans are not buying the recent stock market rally.  This is being reflected in multiple polls showing negative attitudes towards the economy and Wall Street.  Wall Street is so disconnected from the average American that they fail to see the 27 million unemployed and underemployed Americans that now have a harder time believing the gospel of financial engineering prosperity.  Americans have a reason to be dubious regarding the recovery because jobs are the main push for most Americans.  A recent study shows that over 70 percent of Americans derive their monthly income from an actual W-2 job.  In other words, working is the prime mover and source of their income.  Yet the financial elite have very little understanding of this concept.  Why?  42 percent of financial wealth is controlled by the top 1 percent.  We would need to go back to the Great Depression to see such lopsided data.

Many Americans are still struggling at the depths of this recession.  We have 37 million Americans on food stamps and many wait until midnight of the last day of the month so checks can clear to buy food at Wal-Mart.  Do you think these people are starring at the stock market?  The overall data is much worse:

Source:  William Domhoff

If we break the data down further we will find that 93 percent of all financial wealth is controlled by the top 10 percent of the country.  That is why these people are cheering their one cent share increase while layoffs keep on improving the bottom line.  But what bottom line are we talking about here?  The Wall Street crowd would like you to believe that all is now good that the stock market has rallied 60+ percent.  Of course they are happy because they control most of this wealth.  Yet the typical American still has negative views on the economy because they actually have to work to earn a living:

The above daily poll asks Americans about their view on the health of the economy.  Only 13 percent believe the economy is good or excellent.  Funny how that correlates with the top 10 percent who control 93 percent of wealth.  Many Americans were sold the illusion of the bubble.  They were sold on the idea that their homes were worth so much more than they really were.  And many used this phony wealth effect to go out and spend beyond their means.  They started spending as if they were part of this elite 10 percent crowd.  But once the tide rolled out, it was clear they were not.  And the horribly built bailouts demonstrate who is controlling our political system.  This was not the rule of a capitalist system but a corporate run government.

Just think about the bailouts and which companies were saved.  We ended up bailing out the worst performing and troubled companies thus keeping alive companies that should have completely failed.  Did we bail out Google?  Proctor and Gamble?  Of course not.  These companies actually produce something that people want.  Banks and especially the Wall Street kind merely keep that 42 percent happy by making sure their stock values stay high so they can keep on making money while the average Americans is sold up the river.

Yet many were brought into the easy money fold by going into massive amounts of debt.  And who has most of the debt?  That is right, the average American:

The bottom 90 percent have been saddled with 73 percent of all debt.  In other words much of their so-called wealth is connected to debt.  Debt is slavery for many especially with egregious credit card companies taking people out with absurd credit card tricks and scams.  Yet the corporate propaganda machine is strong and mighty.  Have you ever received an inheritance?  A large one?  Probably not because only 1.6% of all Americans receive an inheritance larger than $100,000.  If this is the case, why in the world do politicians worry so much about the tax impacts of this?  Because they want to keep the corporatocracy alive and well so their spawn can get a piece of their pie.  They give the illusion to average Americans that if you only work hard enough you too can join this elusive club of cronies.  The data shows otherwise.

But if we start looking at investment assets, the true wealth in the country, we start realizing why Wall Street is all giddy about the recent stock market government induced rally:

Of investment assets 90 percent of Americans own 12.2 percent.  The rest goes to the top 10 percent.  Welcome to the new serfdom.  The bailouts that went out to the filthy rich were more about protecting their tiny corner of the world than actually making the economy better.  That is why it is interesting to see companies fire people and Wall Street cheer for the increase in earnings per share.  Good for the few at the expense of the many.  Yet the propaganda out of Wall Street and our government is what is good for Wall Street is good for you.  Just like that 1.6% inheritance issue, the vast majority of Americans won’t deal with that and their primary concern is simply a job.  A job that has provided stagnant wages for a decade while the ultra wealth get richer and richer in a phony form of corporate socialism.

If you break down the data you realize that most Americans don’t have time to speculate in stock markets:

Only 34% of U.S. households make more than $65,000 per year.  What is that after taxes?  Let us use a state like California for example:

Now if we breakdown this data further you will realize that most of the money is consumed by cost of living necessities, not Wall Street speculation.  Just to show this example let us look at a family budget for someone in California making $100,000:

Notice after running the budget we are in the hole for $1,000?  That is because of many costs that typical families have.  We can debate the merits of where they are spending money but the point is this; are these people really making beaucoup money from the stock market?  They are putting away $12,000 a year into their 401k.  As we have now found out, 8 percent a year is never guaranteed in the stock market although the corporate powers would like you to believe that so they can have other suckers to unload stocks onto.

“Yet the median household income in the U.S. is $50,000 and not $100,000.  They have even less to invest.”

They are more concerned on working to have a paycheck to pay for necessities.  They are more concerned about paying their house off by the time they retire and hopefully, have a little bit of retirement funds coming in.  The sad fact is most Americans rely on Social Security when they retire.  All those ads of unlimited golf and daily trips to Tahiti are propaganda of how Wall Street lives and they want to sell you the sizzle, and clearly not the steak.  They live their lives paper pushing and sucking the life out of the productive part of our economy.  The average American should now realize this since this financial crisis was primarily caused by them.  They are now on a massive campaign to blame Americans for this.  This is hypocrisy to the next level.  Many Americans have paid for their mistake by losing their home through foreclosure.  We have 300,000 foreclosure filings a month.  Many have taken a hit to their overall stock portfolio (if they have one).  Yet the corporate cronies have protected their horrible economy crushing debts at the taxpayer expense.  Unlike you, many hold bonds on the companies and not common stock like many Americans.  Bondholders have been protected at all costs during this crisis.  Goldman Sachs through AIG received 100 cents on the dollar for their horrible bets.  The banks have unlimited back stops thanks to taxpayers.  This is how the top 1 percent rule the new feudal state.

Welcome to the 2010 serfdom.  Time to wake up and restructure the system.  Many people are starting to wake up to this massive scam.

Leave it to the WSJ to report the truth – and then try to paper over it:

Sales taxes declined 9% to $70 billion in the third quarter compared with the year-ago period, the Census Bureau said. Income taxes plunged 12% to about $58 billion. Together, sales and income taxes make up roughly half of state and local tax revenue.

The WSJ then goes on to opine:

State and local tax revenues tend to lag behind the downturns as well as the upturns in the economy because of the time it takes for collections to catch up with depressed store sales and diminished incomes.

This is true for income taxes.

It is absolutely false when it comes to sales taxes.

As someone who ran a registered establishment for more than a decade that was responsible for filing and paying sales taxes (I signed more returns “under penalty of perjury” than I can count during those years!) I can state that it is an absolute fact that sales tax returns are filed and monies are remitted MONTHLY – if there is an upturn in business – an actual upturn – it shows up NOT MORE THAN ONE MONTH LATER in sales tax receipts.  Period.

There has been no recovery in final retail demand and the proof is right here in the form of sales tax remittances.

Don’t be fooled.

Here it comes….

There is more to this ugly situation. New research by Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae and a housing expert, has found that from the time Fannie and Freddie began buying risky loans as early as 1993, they routinely misrepresented the mortgages they were acquiring, reporting them as prime when they had characteristics that made them clearly subprime or Alt-A.

There’s the allegation right there.

Not mine folks – I’ve told you what I believe about the GSEs over the last two years and change, and have chronicled several other claims of outright fraudulent conduct, including providing links to legal pleadings and other files from periods of time when some of their executives tried to blow the whistle on allegedly-questionable practices.

But now we have The Wall Street Jourmal willing to put into print (albeit on the opinion page) an outright allegation of intentional misrepresentation.

Here’s the definition of fraud from one common online resource:

Fraud is generally defined in the law as an intentional misrepresentation of material existing fact made by one person to another with knowledge of its falsity and for the purpose of inducing the other person to act, and upon which the other person relies with resulting injury or damage. Fraud may also be made by an omission or purposeful failure to state material facts, which nondisclosure makes other statements misleading.

You decide.

Tired of the fraud by “big banking interests”?

Tired of bailouts?

Tired of 29.9% credit card interest rates?

Tired of our government screwing you while favoring (and handing billions of your money to) big banking interests?

THEN DO SOMETHING LAWFUL AND EFFECTIVE ABOUT IT.

I started talking about this quite some time ago.  Specifically, in October I said:

Go withdraw all your money and business from the following institutions:

Bank of America
Wells Fargo/Wachovia
Citibank
JP Morgan/Chase

Those four.

Place your business with a local community bank or credit union in their place, and tell the above four institutions to “piss off.”

I’ve resisted doing this, but the idea that banks are now going to try to penalize those who do not carry balances or pay late fees is the last straw.

This is a call for a boycott.

A call to break these institutions by destroying their deposit base and “net interest margin”, one consumer at a time, as a protest against the outrageous actions these firms have taken in terms of risk and their shifting of the costs of that risk, which should have resulted in their failure and closure by The FDIC and OCC, onto the backs of their customers via outrageous fees, interest rates and costs, along with the direct subsidy being paid by all taxpayers generally.

Now The Huffington Post has picked it up and suddenly there’s a Facebook group for it too.

Huffpo said:

The idea is simple: If enough people who have money in one of the big four banks move it into smaller, more local, more traditional community banks, then collectively we, the people, will have taken a big step toward re-rigging the financial system so it becomes again the productive, stable engine for growth it’s meant to be. It’s neither Left nor Right — it’s populism at its best. Consider it a withdrawal tax on the big banks for the negative service they provide by consistently ignoring the public interest. It’s time for Americans to move their money out of these reckless behemoths. And you don’t have to worry, there is zero risk: deposit insurance is just as good at small banks — and unlike the big banks they don’t provide the toxic dividend of derivatives trading in a heads-they-win, tails-we-lose fashion.

Yep.

So come on board folks.  Yeah, I know, I started banging this drum a couple of months ago and others have been doing so as well.

The point is not to take credit.

It is to make a meaningful difference.

Go over to http://www.moveyourmoney.info to learn how easy it is and to research which local banks you should patronize – based on safety, soundness, and most importantly BEING A LOCAL COMMUNITY ORGANIZATION.

While IRA doesn’t include this and neither does the web page, a credit union is just as good an option if you have one available and is a MEMBERSHIP ORGANIZATION – not a money-sucking Wall Street monstrosity.  One such Credit Union that I personally like is Pentagon Federal Credit Union – they’ll allow anyone to join for a one-time donation to an affiliated organization that works for our men and women in the armed forces.

Make your New Years Resolution telling the big Wall Street robber barons TO GET STUFFED!

I was wondering how long this was going to take….

NEW YORK, Dec 29 (Reuters) – Morgan Stanley has been sued by a Virgin Islands pension fund that accused the Wall Street bank of defrauding investors by marketing $1.2 billion of risky mortgage-related notes that it expected to fail.

The lawsuit filed Dec. 24 in Manhattan federal court said
Morgan Stanley collaborated with credit rating agencies Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s to obtain “triple-A” ratings for notes marketed in 2007 as part of a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) known as Libertas.

According to the complaint, the CDO was backed by low-quality assets, including securities issued by subprime lenders New Century Financial Corp, which quickly went bankrupt, and Option One Mortgage Corp, then owned by H&R Block Inc.

That’s the allegation…. and frankly, my stunner is that it has taken this long for these sorts of lawsuits to show up.

The complaint makes the specific allegation that

 ”Morgan Stanley was betting the entire investment it was
promoting would fail,” according to the complaint, which was
made available on Tuesday. “The firm achieved its objective.”

Oh, who else was doing this sort of thing?  That would be most of the investment banks, right?

The interesting part of this filing from my perspective is that they didn’t sue the raters as well.  I’m quite surprised, actually, as one of the places that looks particularly fertile to me in these suits is an argument of collusive conduct between the ratings agencies and issuers.

Why? 

Because if such a case was able to be proved up it would open the floodgates for treble damages via a potential Racketeering suit.  The underlying fraud, if proved, would served as the predicate felony necessary to sustain such a claim.

We’re not getting that sort of reaction – yet – but I’m quite surprised.

Among the allegations in the suit are this:

The Dec. 24 complaint said Morgan Stanley knew securities in the Libertas CDO were suffering a dramatic rise in delinquencies, but provided a misleading “risk factor” in a prospectus that rising delinquencies “may” hurt values in the $1 trillion residential mortgage-backed securities market.

It called this representation “analogous to Captain Smith’s telling passengers of the Titanic that some ships have ‘recently sunk’ in the Atlantic and therefore ‘our ship may sink,’ without mentioning the facts that his ship struck an iceberg, had a hole in it, and was filling with water.”

Now that puts the basic premise of the case in a format that everyone can understand.

But what this and similar cases filed thus far seem not to bring up is the fact that the only way these deals made sense (for the issuing bank) was if they were improperly “rated” in the first place!

I go back to the fundamental mathematics of lending and business, as I have repeatedly explained over the last two years and change.  That is, the more people that touch a deal the less money there is available in that deal for the end purchaser.  What this means is that the maximum risk-adjusted return exists when one person loans another money – the more complex the deal gets than that, the less total return the end buyer of the debt, all-in, can obtain – UNLESS SOMEONE CHEATS.

But remember – no matter how you slice this whole deal up only 200 basis points of profit is in there over treasuries to make. You can change who eats the losses and how much the various “fingers in the pie” get to siphon off, but you can’t change the total amount of profit available.

OR CAN YOU?

Wall Street figured out that YOU CAN IF YOU ARE WILLING TO CHEAT.

All you have to do is find someone who will run your “deal” through a computer program and “grade” the quality of its debt. If you can find someone who will claim that the total risk of the deal is lower than it actually is, you make out like a bandit, because instead of 200 basis points of actual profit you suddenly “find” another 50 or 100!

That’s the essence of all this “financial engineering.”

The problem with suing on this basis is that it’s somewhat difficult to explain to a jury how this all worked.  If the jurors eyes glaze over you lose, you see.

I’ll make this offer – I’m willing to bet I can spend a half-hour on the phone with any of these attorneys and explain the fundamental scam in these “deals” in sufficiently-clear language that anyone of ordinary competence in the general public can understand it.

That should allow them, in turn, to do so to a jury.

And I won’t even charge for my time.

Call me folks.  Seriously.