FedUpUSA

Archive for January 8th, 2010

401k/IRA Screw Job Coming?

Posted by Karl Denninger

Now this is a guaranteed rape job.

In a short conversation this noontime that CNBC apparently has omitted from their archives (Why’s that folks?) Rick Santelli was talking about a potential to effectively force money into the Treasury market.

Where would they get this?

From your 401k and IRA accounts!

From Businessweek:

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

Let me tell you what this is – it is an attempt to prevent the collapse of the Treasury market!

Forcing people into Treasuries as an “annuity” is exactly what Social Security allegedly is.  Except that Treasury stole the money that was collected in FICA taxes and spent it!

Guess what?  They’ll do that here too – you’re going to “invest” in Treasuries which of course are effectively a CALL option on the future taxing ability of the government.

The problem is that with an aging population and the immigrant problem (illegal immigrants that is), along with offshoring, the aggregate wage base will drop and thus this is the most dangerous investment of all!

What’s even worse is that the government has intentionally suppressed Treasury yields during this crisis (and will keep doing so by various means, including manipulating the CPI – the “inflation index” – as they have for the last 30 years) so as to guarantee that you lose over time compared to actual purchasing power.

THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE 1980s AND IT WILL NOT CHANGE!

I have been talking about this for quite some time and recall writing a Ticker on it a year or more ago, although I can’t find the entry immediately. 

Let me be clear:

I have no quarrel with the government mandating that you have a choice in your IRA or 401k account to buy short-duration Treasuries – much like the “G” fund that government and civil-service workers have.

But – “choices” have a funny way of turning into mandates, and this looks to me like a raw admission that Treasury knows it will not be able to sell its debt in the open market – so they will effectively tax you by forcing your “retirement” money to buy them!

This may be the only way for Treasury to hold down interest rates to something reasonable in the intermediate term, but doing so will instantaneously remove a major source of funding for the stock market – that is, the monthly and quarterly inflows from retirement accounts.

You can bet this won’t be good for you, the ordinary American.

You can also bet that once such an “option” is made available there is a very high probability of the government doing things that either promote or simply don’t stand in the way of another stock market crash as a means of “herding” your money into Treasuries – so they can blow it – all under the guise of being allegedly “safe”.

Of course this begs the question – what if the government can’t pay down the road when you retire, just as they can’t pay on a forward basis with Social Security and Medicare?

This “proposal” can only mean one thing – Treasury smells smoke.  Maybe you should pay attention to what they’re huffing!

And before you say “oh they’d never do that” I want you to read this:

Here is a warning to us all. The Argentine state is taking control of the country’s privately-managed pension funds in a drastic move to raise cash.

…

My fear is that governments in the US, Britain, and Europe will display similar reflexes. Indeed, they have already done so. The forced-feeding of banks with fresh capital – whether they want it or not – and the seizure of the Fannie/Freddie mortgage giants before they were in fact in trouble (in order to prevent a Chinese buying strike of US bonds and prevent a spike in US mortgage rates), shows that private property can be co-opted – or eliminated – with little due process if that is required to serve the collective welfare.

Any questions?

PS: If the video shows up I’ll update this ticker…. and if you’re wondering what hammered the dollar starting at about 9:00 today, this is probably it.  Such a “move” would free the government to further abuse the issuance of Treasuries rather than take necessary austerity steps and places us even further down the road toward a political and economic collapse.

State Tax Revenues See Third Consecutive Double-Digit Drop

The Rockefeller Institute’s Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd write: (emphasis added)

Tax collections nationwide declined by 10.9 percent during the third quarter of 2009, the third consecutive quarter during which tax revenues fell by double-digit percentages, according to the latest report from the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

Combining current data with comparable historical figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Institute reported that the first three quarters of 2009 marked the largest decline in state tax collections at least since 1963.
…

For the fourth quarter of 2009, early data showed continuing declines, although the negative trend of the past year appeared to be moderating.
…

Overall, 48 states saw tax collections fall during the third quarter of 2009, with 22 states experiencing a double-digit percentage decline. During the previous quarter, 36 states saw a double-digit decline, suggesting some moderation during the most recent quarter.

Full report here. (pdf file)

Wait!  I thought we had a recovery?  Where are my green shoots?

Consumer Credit in U.S. Declined in November by Most on Record

Senators Urge Obama To Release Heating Subsidies

 Low income heating program provided $5.1 bln in 2010

* Senators want release of $590 mln in emergency funds

 By Ayesha Rascoe

WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. lawmakers on Friday encouraged the White House to release more than $590 million in emergency federal funding to help low-income families pay their energy bills.

A bipartisan group of senators said the additional money is necessary to help residents dealing with cold temperatures across the country and high unemployment.

“We urge you to release these resources as soon as possible to address the needs of families and seniors who are struggling in the current economic crisis,” the senators said in a letter to President Barack Obama.

The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, commonly known as LIHEAP, was allocated $5.1 billion for fiscal year 2010, including the $590 million in contingency funding.

This is the highest level of funding in the history of the program, but the demand for assistance continues to outpace the financial support, the letter said.

The contingency funding would supplement the block grants the states are already spending.

Led by Democrat Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine, the letter was signed by 48 senators.

The Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the energy assistance program, was not immediately available for comment. (Reporting by Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Christian Wiessner) ((ayesha.rascoe@thomsonreuters.com; +1 202 310 5683; Reuters Messaging: ayesha.rascoe.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((For help: Click “Contact Us” in your desk top, click here [HELP] or call 1-800-738-8377 for Reuters Products and 1-888-463-3383 for Thomson products; For client training: training.americas@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 646-223-5546)) Keywords: CONGRESS ENERGY/LIHEAP

Anyone remember this from 2008?

Help From Hugo Chavez:  Free Heating Oil For Needy U.S. Families

by Vicki Ekstrom, Special to Stateline.org
*Stateline.org was a project of the Pew Research Center from 2004 to 2008. As of July 1, 2008, it is a project of the Pew Center on the States.
April 14, 2008

Close to 200,000 poor families in 15 cold-weather states — in every Northeastern state except New Hampshire — can thank controversial Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for helping them heat their homes this winter.

The Venezuelan-controlled oil-refining company, Citgo Petroleum Corp., donated 45 million gallons of free home heating oil this winter in a move that bought good publicity for the country’s socialist leader, who famously called President Bush “the devil” in a 2006 United Nations speech.

But New Hampshire’s lack of participation in this year’s free-oil program shows that accepting oil from Chavez, a frequent critic of the U.S. government, touches a political nerve.

“There’s the thought that by participating we’re somehow helping Venezuela and Chavez and that it’s not something good for the U.S. government,” said Gale Hennessey, director of Southern New Hampshire Services, which works with the state to administer aid to low-income households.

Venezuela’s offer of free oil this winter came as the U.S. economy was slumping, federal assistance through the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) had dropped and home heating-oil prices hit a record high at more than $3.50 a gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration database of monthly prices since 1990.

The almost 200,000 American families helped by Venezuela this winter is small compared with the almost 6 million families helped through LIHEAP. But LIHEAP was able to help only about 16% of families needing assistance, so Venezuela’s program helped to fill a void until its supplies were exhausted early this winter season.

Read the full report at stateline.org

This morning we got this from Bloomberg:

Retiree Annuities May Be Promoted by Obama Aides (Update2)

By Theo Francis

To contact the reporter on this story: Theo Francis in Washington at tfrancis14@bloomberg.net.

Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration is weighing how the government can encourage workers to turn their savings into guaranteed income streams following a collapse in retiree accounts when the stock market plunged.

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

Annuities generally guarantee income until the retiree’s death, and often that of a surviving spouse as well. They are designed to protect against the risk that retirees outlive their savings, a danger made clear by market losses suffered by older Americans over the last year, David Certner, legislative counsel for AARP, said in an interview.

“There’s a real desire on a lot of people’s parts to try to encourage something other than just rolling over a lump sum, to make sure this money will actually last a lifetime,” said Certner, legislative counsel for Washington-based AARP, the biggest U.S. advocacy group for retirees.

Promoting annuities may benefit companies that provide them through employers, including ING Groep NV and Prudential Financial Inc., or sell them directly to individuals, such as American International Group Inc., the insurer that has received $182.3 billion in government aid.

Balances Fall

The average 401(k) fund balance dropped 31 percent to $47,500 at the end of March 2009 from $69,200 at the end of 2007, according to a Fidelity Investments review of 11 million accounts it manages. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index tumbled 46 percent in that period. The average balance of the Fidelity accounts recovered to $60,700 as of last Sept. 30 as the stock market rebounded.

There is “a tremendous amount of interest in the White House” in retirement-security initiatives, Borzi, who heads the Labor Department’s Employee Benefits Security Administration, said in an interview.

In addition to annuities, the inquiry will cover other approaches to guaranteeing income, including longevity insurance that would provide an income stream for retirees living beyond a certain age, she said.

“There’s been a fair amount of discussion in the literature taking the view that perhaps there ought to be more lifetime income,” Iwry, a senior adviser to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, said in an interview.

Lump Sums

“The question is how to encourage it, and whether the government can and should be helpful in that regard,” Iwry said.

While traditional defined-benefit pensions were paid out as annuities, providing monthly payments for retirees and often their spouses, workers increasingly are taking advantage of options to receive lump-sum distributions.

Only 2 percent of 401(k) plan participants convert retirement savings into an annuity on retirement, according to a July 2009 report from the Retirement Security Project, a joint venture of Georgetown University’s Public Policy Institute and the Brookings Institution in Washington.

A survey of 149 companies released on Dec. 17 by employee- benefits consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide, now part of Arlington, Va.-based Towers Watson & Co., suggested that about 22 percent of employers with retirement savings plans offered retirees the choice between an annuity and a lump-sum distribution.

Annuity Sellers

Government success in getting workers to move retirement assets into annuities may prove profitable for insurers that sell annuities, Anne Mathias, policy research director for Washington Research Group, a policy analysis unit of Concept Capital, said in an interview.

Retirement plans, including 401(k) accounts, held $3.6 trillion in assets at the end of the second quarter of 2009, while annuity investments of all kinds totaled about $2.3 trillion, according to figures from the Washington-based Investment Company Institute, a trade association for asset managers.

The top sellers of individual annuities in the U.S. include AIG, MetLife Inc., Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., Lincoln National Corp. and New York Life Insurance Co., according to figures from the American Council of Life Insurers for 2008. The top group-annuity sellers include ING, Prudential Financial, MetLife and Manulife Financial Corp.

Under Fire

Asset managers are concerned the government may go too far in encouraging annuities, said Mike McNamee, a spokesman for the Investment Company Institute. Seven in 10 U.S. households would object to a requirement that retirees convert part of their savings into annuities, according to a survey the group released today.

“Households’ views on policy changes revealed a preference to preserve retirement account features and flexibility,” the institute said in a report.

The institute also said annuities have received support from academic research and “it is unclear why individuals usually forego the annuity option” even when it is available. The survey didn’t ask about potential efforts by the government to encourage voluntary use of annuities.

Annuity sales to individuals have come under regulatory scrutiny in recent years over the size of sales commissions and whether some varieties are suitable for older investors.

Social Security

John Brennan, the former chairman of Vanguard Group, the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based mutual-fund company, criticized annuities today as often expensive and offering little inflation protection. Americans already benefit from “the best annuity in the world, which is Social Security,” Brennan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

AARP’s Certner said policy makers could avoid many of those pitfalls by encouraging the use of group annuities, which are bought by employers rather than individuals and often carry lower fees, or using approaches that provide retirement income without commercial annuities.

Adding lifetime income to 401(k) plans won’t be sufficient for many workers because they can’t, or don’t, save enough to live on in old age, and Social Security often proves inadequate as more than a safety net, said Karen Ferguson, director of the Pension Rights Center in Washington, D.C.

Senate Bill

“It’s a great idea, but how much are people really going to get out of it?” she said. A better approach would be to give employers incentives to revive defined-benefit pensions, which have languished as employers have focused on cheaper and more flexible 401(k) plans, Ferguson said.

One proposal raised by Iwry as co-author of a paper while at the Retirement Security Project, before joining the administration, has reached Congress. A bill requiring employers to report 401(k) savings both as an account balance and as a stream of income based on an annuity was introduced on Dec. 3 by Senators Jeff Bingaman, a New Mexico Democrat, Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican, and Herb Kohl, a Wisconsin Democrat.

On CNBC this morning, Rick Santelli from the CME had this to say:

The floor is a bit abuzz. There is published reports out that I am getting from many of my sources about something the Obama administration is going to put towards a public comment period. This is very early in the process, but it goes something like this – avg Americans were hurt big during the big givebacks in their IRAs when the credit crisis pushed stocks down. So remember how IRAs are formulated, they are thinking of changing that and allowing more of an annuity scenario. Now if you think this thru what it means is instead of a bit of your paycheck going into equities every week, it will probably be going into things like Treasuries it would be a little bit lower return but it would be safer and this is very early but you want to pay attention to any new stories coming out about this annuity conversion they are going to put out for public comment.

Sue Herrera and Tyler Mathiesen comment about (a) isn’t this the wrong time to go into treasuries since folks coming on CNBS are saying it is, and (b) people can already put their IRA monies into Treasuries if they want.

Rick responds: The difference is that it is going to be something that is going to be more of a large scale program a very simple one and more of a conversion as well. Like I said early stages, but the range of opinions is “hey it is not a bad idea” to very cynical that we are worried about who is going to buy treasuries ad infinitum.

Rick’s a pretty sharp guy and most importantly, he tells the truth.  So, what does this all mean?  We shall translate:

US Treasury To Americans:  To Prevent Treasury Market Collapse, We Will Force YOU To Buy Treasuries In Your Retirement Accounts

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.   Business Week

In other words, Social Security Trust Fund II.   As of last month Fund I is broke.   Summary of 2009 Annual Reports Social Security Board of Trustees    The government already stole all this money, and has not been refunding it for years.  With all the deficit expenditures heaped on top of this, which have gone exponential in the last two years, Social Security ran out of money completely last year, more than 5 years ahead of the previously projected date.  This means that retiree’s checks only go out through DAILY sales of Treasuries.  So, if they sell them to YOU, perhaps you can fund the retirees.  Heh.  Talk about a Ponzi scheme that is doomed to go the way of Bernie Madoff.

 Although this proposal will be presented shortly by the administration as being a ‘frugal choice,’ maybe even the ‘patriotic choice.’  And this will actually sound good to the people who were scrambling around in 2008 trying to find a safe-haven for their retirement accounts during the stock market sell-off.   Indeed, historically speaking,, there has never been a safer asset class in which to be invested.  The problem is, this time we aren’t talking about just a stock market (equities) crash, we’re talking about a potential crash in the Treasury market.  The reality is that there is no one left to buy Treasuries and they need YOU to fund their debt.  After all, China stopped buying Treasuries (funding our debt) in October 2009, but of course no one is talking about this. 

 Press Release:  Treasury International Capital 

 Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities 

You see, if they force people to buy Treasuries now, at the current price, when more and more foreigners stop buying, like China did, the price goes down as the yields (interest rate) goes up.  Thus, all the people forced to buy in here will LOSE a tremendous amount of money. 

 Expect the procedure to look something like this:

Step 1 – Make this ‘option’ available
Step 2 – Listen to crickets
Step 3 – Crash stock market
Step 4 – We’re the government and we’re here to help. All your IRA are belong to us. Or of course, you can risk it in stocks if you want.

It’s step 5 they wont’ tell you about:  Treasury market crashes, after all your money has been allocated into it.  It’s exactly like herding sheep.

At this point, anyone expecting the government to be honest about their true intentions about this proposal, or anything for that matter,  is woefully misguided.

CBO estimates $390 billion budget deficit for first quarter of FY 2010