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Archive for January 17th, 2010

Tuesday, January 19th, A Seminal Moment

Posted by Karl Denninger

Illinois enters a state of insolvency

By: Paul Merrion, Greg Hinz and Steven R. Strahler

As Illinois’ fiscal crisis deepens, the word “bankruptcy” is creeping more and more into the public discourse.

“We would like all the stakeholders of Illinois to recognize how close the state is to bankruptcy or insolvency,” says Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, a fiscal watchdog in Chicago.

“Bankruptcy is the reality that looms out there,” Republican gubernatorial candidate Andrew McKenna Jr. says.

While it appears unlikely or even impossible for a state to hide out from creditors in Bankruptcy Court, Illinois appears to meet classic definitions of insolvency: Its liabilities far exceed its assets, and it’s not generating enough cash to pay its bills. Private companies in similar circumstances often shut down or file for bankruptcy protection.”I would describe bankruptcy as the inability to pay one’s bills,” says Jim Nowlan, senior fellow at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs. “We’re close to de facto bankruptcy, if not de jure bankruptcy.”

Legal experts say the protections of the federal bankruptcy code are available to cities and counties but not states.

While Illinois doesn’t have the option of shutting its doors or shedding debts in a bankruptcy reorganization, it seems powerless to avert the practical equivalent. Despite a budget shortfall estimated to be as high as $5.7 billion, state officials haven’t shown the political will to either raise taxes or cut spending sufficiently to close the gap.

As a result, fiscal paralysis is spreading through state government. Unpaid bills to suppliers are piling up. State employees, even legislators, are forced to pay their medical bills upfront because some doctors are tired of waiting to be paid by the state. The University of Illinois, owed $400 million, recently instituted furloughs, and there are fears it may not make payroll in March if the shortfall continues.

Without quick corrective action or a sharp economic upturn, Illinois is headed toward a governmental collapse. At some point, unpaid vendors will stop bidding on state contracts, investors will refuse to buy Illinois bonds and state employees will get paid in scrip, as California did last year.”The crisis will come when you see state institutions shutting down because they can’t pay their employees,” says David Merriman, head of the economics department at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

A record $5.1 billion in state bills was past due at yearend, almost doubling to 92 days from 48 days a year earlier the average amount of time it takes the state to pay vendors such as doctors, hospitals, non-profit service providers and other contractors.

“I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel,” says Dan Strick, CEO of SouthStar Services, a Chicago Heights non-profit that helps people with developmental disabilities. “It seems to be getting worse and worse, and the delays longer and longer.” SouthStar hasn’t been paid since July, forcing him to borrow to keep afloat.

State tax receipts from July through December last year were running more than $1 billion behind 2008, including a $460-million plunge in sales taxes and a $349-million drop in personal income taxes. Even with a 22% increase in money from the federal government, thanks largely to the stimulus program, total state revenues were down 2.1%, or $284 million, from the previous year.

While new spending is down nearly 2% in the six months ended in December, the state started the fiscal year $3.9 billion in the hole from the previous year’s unpaid bills, which means actual spending was up 2.2%, according to the Illinois comptroller’s most recent report.

The resulting $5.1-billion backlog of unpaid bills doesn’t include $1.4 billion in Medicaid and group health bills that haven’t been processed, plus $2.25 billion in short-term borrowing that must be repaid soon.

Illinois is living hand to mouth, paying bills as revenues come in each day, building up cash when special payments are coming due. Cash on hand varies from day to day, sometimes dipping below $1 million, says a spokeswoman for Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes.

The state’s credit rating has been steadily worsening since 1997, with three downgrades in the past 13 months. “The absence of recurring solutions in the next year to deal with the current budget challenges and begin to stabilize liquidity will likely result in a further downgrade of Illinois,” Standard & Poor’s said last month.

As credit ratings dropped, the state has to pay more to borrow. The state also has to pay interest on bills unpaid after 90 days, adding further to its costs.

The real fear is that the state could eventually be unable to plug its budget gaps with short-term borrowing. Illinois is still a long way from Arkansas during the Great Depression, believed to be the only instance in the past century when a state defaulted on its debt. But California was forced to seek a federal guarantee for its borrowing last year when credit dried up. It didn’t get the guarantee, and state officials are now seeking a $6.9-billion federal bailout.

While California has an even bigger budget hole to fill, Illinois ranks dead last among the states in terms of negative net worth compared with total expenditures. The state’s liabilities, including future pension payments, exceed its unrestricted assets by $39 billion, more than 72% of its total expenditures as of mid-2008, according to Richard Ciccarone, managing director and chief research officer at McDonnell Investment Management LLC, an Oak Brook money manager that invests in bonds. “It’s probably higher now,” he adds.

Investors like Mr. Ciccarone already are starting to wonder if Illinois’ shaky finances and rising debt are a threat to the regular, on-time payments bond investors expect. “You really can’t just look at default risk,” he says. “For an investor looking for stable performance, Illinois leaves you waiting. There are tremendous unresolved issues.”

In addition to its day-to-day budget, Illinois faces rising pension expenses in coming years. Lawmakers have skimped on required contributions to employee pension funds and even borrowed to make those smaller payments. Unfunded liabilities and pension debt are projected to reach $95 billion by June 30. The state must contribute $5.4 billion to the pension funds next year, and more than $10 billion a year in the future. Required contributions will soon start increasing dramatically because the state has repeatedly pushed back a payment schedule enacted in 1995 to set aside enough to cover 90% of its pension obligations by 2045, up from 43% today, one of the worst unfunded liabilities in the nation.

The sharp rise in pension payments is the biggest factor pushing Illinois toward what a legislative task force last November called “a ‘tipping point’ beyond which it will be impossible to reverse the fiscal slide into bankruptcy.” The little-noticed report on the state’s pension problems warned that “the radical cost-cutting and huge tax increases necessary to pay all the deferred costs from the past would become so large that many businesses and individuals would be driven out of Illinois, thereby magnifying the vicious cycle of contracting state services, increasing taxes, and loss of the state’s tax base.”

While the Illinois Constitution protects vested pension benefits, that promise, like all the state’s obligations, is only as good as its ability to pay. The Civic Federation warned lawmakers last fall that “there is mounting evidence that a judge could find the state is already insolvent. If the state is found to be insolvent under the classical cash-flow definition of insolvency, which is ‘the inability to pay debts as they come due,’ it is not only the pension rights of non-vested employees that will be in jeopardy. All the obligations of the state, whether vested or not, will be competing for funding with the other essential responsibilities of state government. Even vested pension rights are jeopardized when a government is insolvent.”

Stephanie comment:  And to think, the senator from this state is now running the country.  Doesn’t it make you feel all warm and fuzzy?

Thieves Guild: Bank of America Flubs Foreclosure, Seizes Wrong House — AGAIN

Hat-tip Consumerist.

For some, the slogan “practice makes perfect” is a motto of encouragement to try again, try harder and achieve perfection. For Bank of America, it should be taken as a strong hint to try and do the right thing the first time, not to try and find a better way to seize the wrong house and then attempt to abstain from any recognizable responsibility.

It should be, but it’s not.

BoA has apparently attempted to foreclose on the wrong house once again, according to an article by Laura Elder in the Galveston County Daily News:

GALVESTON — A West End property owner is suing Bank of America Corp., asserting its agents mistakenly seized a vacation house he owns free and clear, then changed the locks and shut the power off, resulting in the smelly spoiling of about 75 pounds of salmon and halibut from an Alaska fishing trip and other damages.[...snip...]

Agents working for Bank of America cut off power to the property by turning off the main switch in the lower part of the house, according to the lawsuit. They also changed the locks, so Schroit was unable to reach the switch to turn the power back on, according to the lawsuit.

[...snip...]

“The property sustained water damage, potential mold contamination arising from the standing freezer residue, water, heat and high humidity conditions during the time the electrical power was off,” according to the lawsuit.

This marks the second time known this has known to occur. The Wheelright, Ky, homeowner in that incident filed a lawsuit against the bank for a similar incident: the locks were changed, and the bank refused to pay any damages other than replacement locks.

Accidents happen, but the bank’s responsibility for its actions doesn’t cease to exist simply because it’s a corporate behemoth. If an average person had “accidentally” shut off power to someone else’s home, changed the locks and caused untold damage, that person would be held liable in both criminal and civil court for the actions — amends and liability would most certainly be assigned.

Bank of America’s incapacity to deal responsibly with “errors” that significantly impact the public should be a wake-up call that the bank has other serious issues that need to be addressed, and that the rights and liberties of “corporate personhood” should not ever exceed the rights and liberties of real living people.

Reality Check in California, Michigan and Other States – Except One

In December 2009, the National Governors Association (NGA) and National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO) issued their latest biannual Fiscal Survey of States, assessing their economies and presenting their outlook for the year ahead, a very glum one in their opening statement saying:

“States are currently facing one of the worst, if not the worst, fiscal periods since the Great Depression. Fiscal conditions significantly deteriorated for states during fiscal 2009, with the trend expected to continue through fiscal 2010 and even into 2011 and 2012.”

They say tax revenues are drastically lower from all revenue sources, and collections are expected to fall further in the current year. Citing a $256 billion budget gap between FY 2009 and 2011, they’ve had to enact sharp spending cuts and find new revenue sources. The federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) made up $135 billion of the shortfall. Another $87 billion in Medicaid funding facilitated critical health and human services spending.

Even so, programs across the board were cut with more coming in 2010 as governors and budget officers prepare for the worst. According to NASBO Executive Director Scott Pattison:

“We expect a continued deterioration in all financial indicators including revenues, balances and expenditures.”

As a result, the fiscal health of America’s states is dire with little in the way of expected relief. Across the country, governors say federal stimulus money is running out, yet conditions are worsening so more spending cuts and revenue increases are planned at a time opposite measures are needed.

However, unlike the federal government, states must balance their budgets, making up shortfalls by borrowing, taxes, and/or cuts in vital services. While constitutional, statutory, or traditional practices vary, three general kinds of balanced budget requirements exist, differing only in detail:

– the governors’ proposed budget must be balanced;

– the enacted one must be as well; and

– the fiscal or biennium fiscal year one must be also, with no deficits carried forward.

Given today’s conditions, that makes for cantankerous debates producing compromises and delicate juggling, satisfying no one, especially households hit hardest by the results.

One state alone stands out in the current environment, North Dakota, with its governor, John Hoeven calling a December 15 news conference to explain that the state has so much money (a $1.3 billion FY 2009 surplus, its largest ever) that individuals and businesses will average $650 in 2009 tax savings from income and property tax cuts enacted by its legislature. In addition, seniors and disabled people who own property or rent will get additional savings from an expanded Homestead Property Tax program.

According to Tax Commissioner Cory Fong:

North Dakota has been able to weather the economic crisis. “While other state governors and legislatures are looking for ways to raise revenue through raising taxes and cutting services, we just came through a historic session of funding both our important priorities and substantial tax relief….The winners are families, businesses and the State of North Dakota,” because it’s unique in one important respect.

It’s the only one with a state-owned bank (The Bank of North Dakota – BND) that sustains its distinctiveness and strength. As a result, it had the nation’s lowest unemployment rate of 4.1 at year end 2009 and created jobs throughout the crisis.

Established in 1919, it’s been a “credit machine” ever since, according to financial writer Ellen Brown, delivering “sound financial services that promote agriculture, commerce and industry,” something no other state can match because they don’t have state-owned banks.

With one, BND “create(s) ‘credit’ with accounting entries on (its) books” through fractional reserve banking that multiplies each deposited amount magically about tenfold in the form of loans or computer-generated funds. As a result, the bank can re-lend many times over, and the more deposits, the greater amount of it for sustained, productive growth. If all states owned public banks, they’d be as prosperous as North Dakota and be able to rebate taxes and expand public services, not extract more or cut them.

Brown explains that the BND:

“chiefly acts as a central bank, with functions similar to those of a branch of the Federal Reserve,” that’s neither federal or has reserves as is owned by major private banks in each of the 12 Fed districts, New York by far the most dominant with Wall Street’s majority control and a Fed chairman doing its bidding.

In contrast, BND is a public bank, 100% owned by the state, operating in the public interest and those of the state. It “avoids rivalry with private banks by partnering with them.” Local banks do most lending. “The BND then comes in to participate in the loan, share risk, buy down the interest rate and buy up loans, thereby freeing up banks to lend more. (One of its functions) is to provide a secondary market for real estate loans, which it buys from local banks. Its residential loan portfolio is now $500 to $600 billion” in a state with around 700,000 people and thriving.

Its function in the property market helped it “avoid the credit crisis that afflicted Wall Street when the secondary market for loans collapsed in late 2007 and helped it reduce its foreclosure rate….(Its other services) include guarantees for entrepreneurial startups and student loans, the purchase of municipal bonds from public institutions, and a well-funded disaster loan program.” When the state didn’t meet its budget “a few years ago, the BND met the shortfall.”

In sum, state-owned banks have “enormous advantages over smaller private institutions….Their asset bases are not marred by oversized salaries and bonuses, they have no shareholders” demanding high returns, and they don’t speculate in derivatives or other high-risk investments. As a result, BND is healthy with a 25% return on equity, paying “a hefty dividend to the state projected at over $60 million in 2009″ and well over five times that amount in the last decade, so it begs the question why other states don’t operate the same way. If enough of their residents demanded it, they might and not suffer the way nearly all of them are today, two notably – California and Michigan.

ECB Prepares Legal Ground For Euro Rupture As Greek Crisis Escalates

Fears of a euro break-up have reached the point where the European Central Bank feels compelled to issue a legal analysis of what would happen if a country tried to leave monetary union.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

“Recent developments have, perhaps, increased the risk of secession (however modestly), as well as the urgency of addressing it as a possible scenario,” said the document, entitled Withdrawal and expulsion from the EU and EMU: some reflections.

The author makes a string of vaulting, Jesuitical, and mischievous claims, as EU lawyers often do. Half a century of ever-closer union has created a “new legal order” that transcends a “largely obsolete concept of sovereignty” and imposes a “permanent limitation” on the states’ rights.

Those who suspect that European Court has the power pretensions of the Medieval Papacy will find plenty to validate their fears in this astonishing text.

Crucially, he argues that eurozone exit entails expulsion from the European Union as well. All EU members must take part in EMU (except Britain and Denmark, with opt-outs).

This is a warning shot for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. If they fail to marshal public support for draconian austerity, they risk being cast into Icelandic oblivion. Or for Greece, back into the clammy embrace of Asia Minor.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet upped the ante, warning that the bank would not bend its collateral rules to support Greek debt. “No state can expect any special treatment,” he said. He might as well daub a death’s cross on the door of Greece’s debt management office.

This euro-brinkmanship must be unnerving for the Hellenic Socialists (PASOK). Last week’s €1.6bn (£1.4bn) auction of Greek debt did not go well. The interest rate on six-month notes rose to 1.38pc, compared to 0.59pc a month ago. The yield on 10-year bonds has touched 6pc, the spreads ballooning to 270 basis points above German Bunds.

Greece cannot afford such a premium for long. The country must raise €54bn this year – front-loaded in the first half. Unless the spreads fall sharply, the deficit cannot be cut from 12.7pc of GDP to 3pc of GDP within three years. As Moody’s put it, Greece (and Portugal) faces the risk of “slow death” from rising interest costs.

Stephen Jen from BlueGold Capital said the design flaws of monetary union are becoming clearer. “I don’t believe Euroland will break up: too much political capital has been spent in the past half century for Euroland to allow an outright breakage. However, severe ‘stress-fractures’ are quite likely in the years ahead.”

As Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS) slide into deflation, their “real” interest rates will rise even higher. “It is tantamount to hiking rates in the already weak PIIGS,” he said. This is the crux. ECB policy will become “pro-cyclical”, too tight for the South, too loose for the North.

The City view is that the North-South split may cause trouble, but that there will always be a bail-out to prevent a domino effect. “If a rescue turns out to be necessary, a rescue will be mounted,” said Marco Annunziata from Unicredit.

It comes down to a bet that Berlin will do for Club Med what it did for East Germany: subsidise forever. It is a judgement on whether EMU is the binding coin of sacred solidarity, or just a fixed exchange rate system like others before it.

Politics will decide, and in Greece it is already proving messy as teams of “inspectors” ruffle feathers. The Orthodox LAOS party is not happy that an EU crew dared to demand an accounting from the colonels. “The Ministry of Defence is sacrosanct,” it said.

Greece alone in Western Europe treats the military budget as a state secret. Rating agencies guess it is a ruinous 5pc of GDP. Does the country really need 1,700 battle tanks, 420 combat jets, and eight submarines? To fight NATO ally Turkey? Merely to pose the question is to enter dangerous waters.

Who knows what the IMF surveillance team made of their mission in Athens. The Fund’s formula for boom-bust countries that squander their competitiveness is to retrench AND devalue. But devaluation is ruled out. Greece must take the pain, without the cure.

The policy is conceptually foolish and arguably cynical. It is to bleed a society in order to uphold the ideology of the European Project. Greece’s national debt will be 120pc of GDP this year. S&P says it will reach 138pc by 2012. A fiscal squeeze – without any offsetting monetary or exchange stimulus – will cause tax revenues to collapse. Debt will rise higher on a shrinking economic base.

Even if Greece can cut wages without setting off mass protest, it lacks the open economy and export sector that may yet save Ireland in similar circumstances. Greece is caught in a textbook deflation trap.

Labour minister Andreas Loverdos says unemployment would reach a million this year – or 22pc, equal to 30m in the US. He broadcast the fact with a hint of menace, as if he wanted Europe to squirm. Two can play brinkmanship.