The revisions to GDP published this morning have turned to disgustingly nasty one of my favorite charts. Specifically, this one:
You’ve all seen this a dozen times. Well, here’s what it looks like with the revised GDP numbers “corrected” in the Excel file:
“Holy Sheeit” doesn’t even begin to describe this.
These are not small changes, but they also mark the desperation of our government to avoid recognition of even a tiny, 2% annualized decrease in GDP!
That’s right folks – “as-reported”, the maximum y/o/y “depression” that garnered the title “Great Recession” was a minuscule 2% decrease in REPORTED nominal GDP.
But look at the policy response. Oh, and that last dot – it’s estimated, based on the 2Q preliminary GDP numbers (which are almost-certainly too “hot” and the debt numbers (almost-certainly too “cold”.)
In addition the revisions make clear that there was in fact a zero real growth rate in 2006! There was your warning…. and likely why we had the nice little dump in the market starting in the early part of 2007.
(Revisions only go back to the e/o/y 2006 numbers.)
If you look to the 2003-2007 period for a clue as to how our government will respond, you’re in for a stunner – there will be no material decrease in deficits while economic “recovery” on a nominal scale will be unlikely to go beyond 4% on a reported basis.
At this rate we’re gonna be Greece – and sooner than you think.
Ponzi Ponzi Ponzi!