How To Lose Money: Listen To Goldman


I’m always amused by Goldman when it comes to their “publicly distributed” trading calls.  Like this one, for instance:

July 15 (Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the dollar will weaken against the euro by January as U.S. growth slows, marking the bank’s second reversal in two months after it forecast in June the greenback would surge to a seven-year high.

After in June, eh?

Well the previous call was definitely wrong.  Indeed, you bought the top with that one.  Isn’t that special?

Now they expect it to “weaken”?  Gee, read a chart lately folks?

That’s a very pretty inverse head-and-shoulders – note that a material number of so-called “Analysts” also saw this a couple of weeks ago, but called for the advance to stop at the top of the channel, roughly.

I said at the time (in the nightly videos) that it might indeed do so, but that if the channel broke you were nuts to try to short it, as there was every reason to believe we could trade 1.33. 

A guarantee?  Oh hell no; there’s no such thing in trading. 

But I’ll say this – it seems that every time I hear a Goldman Sachs call promulgated to people “publicly”, the market does exactly the opposite of whatever that call is.  Indeed, from my perspective (and account balance!) they’ve been a great fade of late.

When you’re wrong half the time you look like a monkey with a fistful of darts.

When you’re wrong 80% of the time one is forced to wonder if the bad calls are intentional.