In the week ending July 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 475,000. The 4-week moving average was 466,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 467,250.
Right. Into the holiday weekend fewer people got fired. This is not surprising. Nor should this be:
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 26 was 4,413,000, a decrease of 224,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 4,637,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,554,000, a decrease of 18,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,572,750.
That’s a big drop. But much of that was due to the refusal to reauthorize extensions by the Congress. Do you really believe 224,000 people found jobs last week? Or is it more likely that they stopped getting checks due to the handout-freeze?
Don’t you recall all the bleating in the newspapers about people “losing all money” from the handout machine? I wrote a ticker or two about it…… so…… is this really improvement?
Somehow I doubt it.
Incidentally, the EUC (extended benefit) numbers were even more dramatic, dropping from 4.515 million to 4.147, or -368,000. Some of those were dropped due to the refusal to continue to extend benefits. The others rolled off the 99 weeks and, incidentally, this is forecast to continue with many states seeing tens of thousands or more people “falling off” every week at this point.
That they’re no longer getting government handouts means, of course, that they’re no longer unemployed – if you’re a member of the Goebbels Media, which both the Department of Labor and the mainstream press appear to be.
Leaving aside the social policy issues (which are certainly fair game for debate) we’ll see how those newly off-the-dole impact the retail sales numbers over the next three months or so.
The market reaction to that ought to be quite amusing, as will, I’m sure, all the “nobody saw it coming!” reactions from the very same Goebbels “reporters.”