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Archive for July, 2010

We Seem To Be Out Of Suckers…

 

This is rather amusing…..

July 27 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates persistently low, which has helped boost bank earnings over the last six quarters, is beginning to make it harder for the biggest U.S. lenders to make money.

Oh really?  Keeping interest rates low?

Aren’t you being a little backward with that, Bloomberg?  I think so, and here’s why:

Notice that when “QE” started the long end of the curve went higher on rates. 

That’s “NIM”, or “net interest margin.”  That is, banks can borrow at near-zero (short term rates) and lend out for ten years at the longer rate, which is a higher interest point, pocketing the difference.

Now remember, Bernanke’s argument for “QE” is that it would suppress rates.  He was either wrong (in which case he won’t do it again as he didn’t get what he wanted) or he was lying, in which case he intentionally screwed every borrower in America and lied to Congress in the process.

So which is it?

Does it matter?

Well, not really.

There’s no loan demand – as I have repeatedly pointed out and have posted the chart on enough times to go blue in my face, private credit capacity has been reached in the economy.  People are either unwilling or unable to borrow, but which it is doesn’t matter.

The attempted “can kicking” of “reflation” requires that private credit demand re-accelerate and to in fact buy “just a few more years” we would have to roughly double credit outstanding in the system.

We keep trying to cheat reality.  We did it in the 1990s and we did it after 2000.  The 2000-2007 run in credit was truly impressive – we doubled, roughly, outstanding total credit in the system, while GDP expanded somewhat less than 40%.

The game’s over.  The Fed has done all they can really do to stimulate further credit demand, and has failed.

“When banks can’t find yielding assets and their book is shrinking, the cash flow on their book is shrinking,” said Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. “Everybody’s starving to death.”

With luck it will be a slow, nasty, and painful death by starvation for those banksters and their enablers who intentionally created this mess, despite having actual knowledge that on a perpetual basis what they were doing wouldn’t work – it was mathematically impossible for it to do so.

The Market-Ticker

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Goldman Reveals Where Bailout Cash Went

 

Well, it’s a little late at this point, but it appears that Congress has now awakened to the fact that the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury Department seem to have been complicit in allowing Goldman Sachs to funnel taxpayer funds all over the world.  Certainly this is a landmark case of ‘horse and barn door’ – for anyone paying attention, we were screaming about this here on FedUpUSA when it happened, well over a year ago.  I guess better late than never?  Just remember where all those billions of dollars went for when your kids and grandkids ask you why the US government takes everything they earn.

Goldman Sachs received a $12.9 billion payout from the government’s bailout of AIG, which was at one time the world’s largest insurance company.

By Karen Mracek and Thomas Beaumont, Des Moines Register

Goldman Sachs sent $4.3 billion in federal tax money to 32 entities, including many overseas banks, hedge funds and pensions, according to information made public Friday night.Goldman Sachs disclosed the list of companies to the Senate Finance Committee after a threat of subpoena from Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Ia.

 Asked the significance of the list, Grassley said, “I hope it’s as simple as taxpayers deserve to know what happened to their money.”

 He added, “We thought originally we were bailing out AIG. Then later on … we learned that the money flowed through AIG to a few big banks, and now we know that the money went from these few big banks to dozens of financial institutions all around the world.”

 Grassley said he was reserving judgment on the appropriateness of U.S. taxpayer money ending up overseas until he learns more about the 32 entities.

 SETTLEMENT: Goldman Sachs admits it misled investors, pays $550M fine

GOLDMAN CONSENT: SEC vs. Goldman Sachs

JUDGEMENT: Final judgement of defendant

 Goldman Sachs (GS) received $5.55 billion from the government in fall of 2008 as payment for then-worthless securities it held in AIG. Goldman had already hedged its risk that the securities would go bad. It had entered into agreements to spread the risk with the 32 entities named in Friday’s report.

 Overall, Goldman Sachs received a $12.9 billion payout from the government’s bailout of AIG, which was at one time the world’s largest insurance company.

 Goldman Sachs also revealed to the Senate Finance Committee that it would have received $2.3 billion if AIG had gone under. Other large financial institutions, such as Citibank, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, sold Goldman Sachs protection in the case of AIG’s collapse. Those institutions did not have to pay Goldman Sachs after the government stepped in with tax money.

 Shouldn’t Goldman Sachs be expected to collect from those institutions “before they collect the taxpayers’ dollars?” Grassley asked. “It’s a little bit like a farmer, if you got crop insurance, you shouldn’t be getting disaster aid.”

 Goldman had not disclosed the names of the counterparties it paid in late 2008 until Friday, despite repeated requests from Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel.

 ”I think we didn’t get the information because they consider it very embarrassing,” Grassley said, “and they ought to consider it very embarrassing.”

 FINANCIAL REFORM: How Congress rewrote the regulations

FIXED? Will new regulations prevent future meltdowns?

FINANCIAL OVERHAUL AND YOU: Mortgages, debit cards, loans, more

 The initial $85 billion to bail out AIG was supplemented by an additional $49.1 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP, as well as additional funds from the Federal Reserve. AIG’s debt to U.S. taxpayers totals $133.3 billion outstanding.

 ”The only thing I can tell you is that people have the right to know, and the Fed and the public’s business ought to be more public,” Grassley said.

DesMoinesRegister

USAToday

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Weekend Funnies

 


Nathan’s Economic Edge

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Hypocrite Geithner Says Private Sector Must Drive Economy

 

Like most politicians, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner likes to talk out of both sides of his mouth, generally saying contradictory things in sound bites that may sound reasonable at first glance, but look idiotic upon closer inspection.

For example please consider Private sector must drive economy: Geithner

During an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Geithner also said the government has big plans for reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the housing finance giants that now stand behind most of the mortgages in the U.S. after being bailed out by taxpayers during the 2008 financial crisis.

Geithner said Sunday that he doesn’t expect a double-dip recession, citing encouraging signs in the economy. “The most likely thing is you see an economy that gradually strengthens over the next year or two,” he said. Watch Geithner on Meet the Press.

Businesses are still “very cautious” and are trying to get as much productivity from current employees as possible, Geithner explained.

“They are in a very strong financial condition though. I think that’s very promising because there’s a lot of pent-up demand and there’s a lot of capacity still for them to step up and start to invest and hire again,” he added. “The government can help but we need to make this transition now to a recovery led by private investment.”

There’s a “good case” for the government to support small businesses, the unemployed and help states keep teachers in classrooms, but the transition to growth led by the private sector must happen, Geithner said.

Still, he stressed that the current system of housing finance has to change.

“We’re not going to preserve Fannie and Freddie in anything like their current form. We’re going to have to bring fundamental change to that market,” Geithner said.

There’s still a good case for the government preserving some type of guarantee to make sure that people can finance a house even in a very damaging recession, he explained.

“We’re also going to have to take a look at the broad set of policies we put in place to help encourage home ownership and particularly help low income Americans get access to affordable housing,” Geithner said. “We’re going to take a very broad look at how best to do that.”

No Pent Up Demand

For starters Geithner is wrong about pent up demand. The only pent up demand is in the opposite sense Geithner suggests.

Pent Up Demand Reality

  • There is pent up demand for baby boomers to save more
  • There is pent up demand for baby boomers to downsize
  • There is pent up demand for banks to dump shadow housing inventory on the market and that will further suppress housing
  • There is pent up demand for anyone with credit card bills to pay them down given outrageous interest rates banks charge for revolving credit vs. what one can make in CDs.

Although those are all necessary, nothing in that list remotely have anything to do with a private sector recovery in the manner Geithner presumes. Indeed, I expect a Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash.

The key reason is consumer spending plans have crashed as noted in Consumption Inflection Point – No One Wants Credit; Consumer Spending Plans Plunge

Thus, in regards to pent up demand Geithner is a fool, is lying, or both.

Geithner Hypocrisy

If that was not bad enough, we have to suffer with Geithner talking out of both sides of his mouth. While I certainly agree that the private sector needs to drive the economy, note his many statements to the contrary.

  • “The government can help but we need to make this transition …”.
  • “There’s a good case for the government to support small businesses …”
  • “There’s still a good case for the government preserving some type of guarantee to make sure that people can finance a house even in a very damaging recession …”

How long is the “transition”?

Geithner does not say, so I will offer a translation: Forever.

Geithner is a clueless Keynesian clown who has no idea how the economy works. Not only do we have to put up with his blatant lies, we have to deal with his hypocritical never-ending government solutions.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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2011: The Year Of The Tax Increase

 

Unless the U.S. Congress acts, there is going to be a massive wave of tax increases in 2011.  In fact, some are already calling 2011 the year of the tax increase.  A whole host of tax cuts that Congress established between 2001 and 2003 are set to expire in January unless Congress chooses to renew them.  But with Democrats firmly in control of both houses that appears to be extremely unlikely.  These tax increases are going to affect every single American (at least those who actually pay taxes).  But this will be just the first wave of tax increases.  Another huge slate of tax increases passed in the health care reform law is scheduled to go into effect by 2019.  So Americans that are already infuriated by our tax system are only going to become more frustrated in the years ahead.  The reality is that the U.S. government will soon be digging much deeper into our wallets.

The following are some of the tax increases that are scheduled to go into effect in 2011…. 

1 – The lowest bracket for the personal income tax is going to increase from 10 percent to 15 percent.

2 – The next lowest bracket for the personal income tax is going to increase from 25 percent to 28 percent.

3 – The 28 percent tax bracket is going to increase to 31 percent.

4 – The 33 percent tax bracket is going to increase to 36 percent.

5 – The 35 percent tax bracket is going to increase to 39.6 percent.

6 – In 2011, the death tax is scheduled to return.  So instead of paying zero percent, estates of $1 million or more are going to be taxed at a rate of 55 percent.

7 – The capital gains tax is going to increase from 15 percent to 20 percent.

8 – The tax on dividends is going to increase from 15 percent to 39.6 percent.

9 – The “marriage penalty” is also scheduled to be reinstated in 2011. 

It is being estimated that the total cost of these tax increases to U.S. taxpayers will be $2.6 trillion through the year 2020.

Ouch!

But wait, there are even more tax increases coming.

The “health care reform law” contains over a dozen new taxes that will be implemented in stages over the next decade.  When you add all of these taxes to the taxes that were mentioned earlier, the result is going to be absolutely devastating.  According to an analysis by the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation the health care reform law will generate $409.2 billion in additional taxes by the year 2019.

Double ouch!

So is it any wonder why the public has such a low opinion of the U.S. Congress?

Every single major poll done on the topic shows that approval ratings for Congress are at record lows.

For example, Gallup’s 2010 Confidence in Institutions poll found Congress ranking dead last out of the 16 institutions rated this year.

Of course there are a whole host of reasons why the American people are upset with Congress, but one of the big ones is the fact that we are literally being taxed to death.

However, it is not just federal income taxes that are killing us.

In a previous article entitled “Taxed Enough Already!”, we listed just a few of the taxes that Americans have to pay each year….

Accounts Receivable Tax

Building Permit Tax

Capital Gains Tax

CDL license Tax

Cigarette Tax

Corporate Income Tax

Court Fines (indirect taxes)

Dog License Tax

Federal Income Tax

Federal Unemployment Tax (FUTA)

Fishing License Tax

Food License Tax

Fuel permit tax

Gasoline Tax

Gift Tax

Hunting License Tax

Inheritance Tax

Inventory tax IRS Interest Charges (tax on top of tax)

IRS Penalties (tax on top of tax)

Liquor Tax

Local Income Tax

Luxury Taxes

Marriage License Tax

Medicare Tax

Payroll Taxes

Property Tax

Real Estate Tax

Recreational Vehicle Tax

Road Toll Booth Taxes

Road Usage Taxes (Truckers)

Sales Taxes

School Tax

Septic Permit Tax

Service Charge Taxes

Social Security Tax

State Income Tax

State Unemployment Tax (SUTA)

Telephone federal excise tax

Telephone federal universal service fee tax

Telephone federal, state and local surcharge taxes

Telephone minimum usage surcharge tax

Telephone recurring and non-recurring charges tax

Telephone state and local tax

Telephone usage charge tax

Toll Bridge Taxes

Toll Tunnel Taxes

Traffic Fines (indirect taxation)

Trailer registration tax

Utility Taxes

Vehicle License Registration Tax

Vehicle Sales Tax

Watercraft registration Tax

Well Permit Tax

Workers Compensation Tax

Are you dizzy yet?

The reality is that the American people are being drained in dozens and dozens of different ways.

But what did you expect?

Did you think that our politicians would pile up the biggest debt in the history of the world and never ask you to pay for it?

Did you think that we could run deficits equivalent to about 10 percent of GDP without ever seeing tax increases?

The truth is that the U.S. government needs a whole lot more money than even these new tax increases will bring in.

After all, it is being projected that the U.S. government will be spending $2 trillion on the interest on the national debt alone by the year 2020.

To put that in perspective, the entire budget for the U.S. government is less than $4 trillion for 2010.

Are you starting to get the picture?

In the years ahead the IRS is going to be digging deeper and deeper into our pockets and a gigantic chunk of that money is going to go directly into the pockets of those who own our debt.

But very few Americans wanted to listen when this problem was actually somewhat fixable 20 or 30 years ago.

So now we are all going to pay the price – literally.

The Economic Collapse

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William Black: "Unlimited Taxpayer Bailout" of FDIC Coming; FDIC Shell Game Hides the Bailout

 

Last Friday seven more banks failed bringing the total bank failures to 103.

U.S. bank failures this year have surpassed a bleak milestone of 100 as regulators shut down banks in Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Kansas, Nevada, Minnesota and Oregon.

The seven bank seizures announced Friday bring to 103 the failures so far in 2010. The pace of bank closures this year is well ahead of that of 2009, which saw a total of 140 banks shuttered amid the recession and mounting loan defaults. That was the highest annual tally since 1992, at the height of the savings and loan crisis.

The number of banks on the FDIC’s confidential “problem” list jumped to 775 in the first quarter, from 702 three months earlier, even as the industry as a whole had its best quarter in two years.

More Failures Coming

The FDIC is now deep in the red and the situation is getting worse every week. The situation would be even worse were it not for widespread “extend and pretend” tactics that keep woefully insolvent banks in business.

FDIC Shell Game To Hide Bad Assets

To address the situation, the FDIC is going to start selling U.S.-guaranteed FDIC senior certificates. However, it has no Congressional authority to do so according to former thrift regulator William Black.

Unlimited Taxpayer Bailout

Black claims an “unlimited taxpayer bailout” of the FDIC is on the way.

Barrons discusses the situation in Uncle Sam Rides Again: Banking on a Bailout?

BEFORE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS is unwound, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. expects to have taken over some 300 failed banks. The rapid closures have drained the agency’s cash reserves.

The FDIC must sell assets to continue the closings. It has about $37 billion of bad-bank assets to sell, but the stockpile would bring only 10 to 50 cents on the dollar.

Enter the FDIC’s Securitization Pilot Program, the sale of U.S.-guaranteed FDIC senior certificates. This enables the FDIC to push much of the losses off its books, thanks to the U.S. guarantee of principal and interest. The program starts with a $500 million issue.

“They aren’t really selling the bad assets. They’re selling the equivalent of a Treasury bond without congressional approval,” says William Black, a former thrift regulator. “It hides the economic substance of what’s really happening—an unlimited taxpayer bailout.”

The FDIC contests the characterization, saying it doesn’t expect a claim on the guarantee because of an equity cushion to absorb the losses, and the use of only performing mortgages in the pools. The agency says a lot of resources stand between it and the taxpayer.

Foot in the Door Ploy

Notice how the $500 million start gets the FDIC foot in the taxpayer’s door. At some point Congress will probably grant authority to the FDIC just as the Fed got unlimited funding for Fannie Mae.

President Obama and the Democrats are making matters worse by permanently upping the FDIC limit to 250,000 in the financial reform legislation that just passed.

Moral Hazards

FDIC is a moral hazard. Many banks that failed were able to stay in business because of taxpayer deposits at above market rates. For example, no one in their right mind would have had deposits at Corus Bank, a bank with many troubled loans to Florida and Nevada condo developers.

Corus bank would have failed long before it did, without the FDIC guarantee. Not only was the bank able to attract funding by offering above market rates, Corus contributed to the enormous property bubble in Florida and other places.

Instead of preventing risky bank practices in the first place, or upping the insurance rate on risky bank practices to cover excessive risk, the FDIC is about to get an unlimited taxpayer sponsored bailout by selling U.S.-guaranteed FDIC senior certificates, even though it has no authority to do so.

FDIC Legacy

As a result of the inept policy decisions by the FDIC, instead of having small bank failures widely spread out over time, we have had concentrated bank failures in a short period of time.

Taxpayers will be the ones to pay the price. This is the legacy of FDIC and its failed moral hazard policies.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

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