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Archive for January 3rd, 2011

New Year's Funnies

 

 

“It’s the DEBT, Stupid!”
We’re Doing Something About it! Come Join the Swarm!

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Year-End Debt-Stravaganza; Congress You're On Notice!

 

To The Incoming Senators and Congresspeople:  YOU ARE ON NOTICE.

  • No mewling about the National Debt and deficit.  The below charts cannot be argued with.  They are what they are.
  • No promises to “do something about it tomorrow.”  We’ve heard about that now for three years.  The time for political stunts and showmanship is over.  This is a real issue, it is a real national crisis, and if you don’t do something about it you’ll be lucky to get through 2011 before it blows up.
  • YOU WILL NOT GET THROUGH 2012.  I know what you’re thinking already.  Remember that George W. Bush thought the same thing in 2007 and early 2008.  So did Bernanke.  So did Paulson.  They were wrong. 

If you do not act on this, it will detonate before the elections next year. 

Not might.

Will.

This is the truth through 12/31/2010.  We closed the year at $1.714 trillion dollars in deficits for the year.  That’s a record, more than $100 billion higher than the $1.612 trillion last year.

The deficit for the last calendar year was 11.64% of GDP.  This is right up there with the nations that have blown up – Iceland, Greece and Ireland – and this is the third year running you’ve put up numbers over 10% (10.23, 11.41 and now 11.64, respectively.) 

You will not get away with this into the indefinite future.  You may think you can get away with it for two more years, but I assure you – that is not going to happen. 

Further, the true GDP rate for the last 12 months is in fact -7.31%.  We now have a cumulative decline in GDP built into the economy of approximately 30% that must be absorbed.  If you attempt to continue this path much further, it won’t be a decline that we will be dealing with, it will be an all-on collapse.

I know 30% sounds outrageously large – and beyond the nation’s ability to absorb.  It cannot be absorbed without severe pain.  But if we do not take that pain, force the bad debt into the open that is causing this and clear it – irrespective of whether we want to or not, the result will be political and economic collapse.

This is as certain as night follows day, and day follows night.  It is as certain as January 1st follows December 31st.

Mr. Goolsby opined that to not extend the debt ceiling would be to “play chicken” with the “full faith and credit” of The United States.

Let me be clear: If you extend the debt ceiling and by doing so allow deficits of this sort to continue for another year, say much less two, you will have placed a loaded shotgun in the mouth of this nation and pulled the trigger. 

It will go off, and you will splatter this nations’ economic and political system all over the wall.

Promises at this point are three years old and have been proved lies

Simply put, you must act now and shut off spending you cannot fund.

I fully understand that in order to address this problem both The House and Senate will have to do very unpopular things.  Nonetheless, you are duty-bound by your oath of office to do so.

I will, of course, continue to chronicle your failures, for that is exactly what I expect from you.  I also expect and anticipate all manner of excuse, rather than forthright and honest examination of the issues.  I repeat, however, that whether I, or anyone else, like the outcomes we face is immaterial.  These issues are not political – they are mathematical.  I can no more change these outcomes than you can. 

These deficits and embedded damage cannot be grown out of.  The mathematics on this are clear, convincing, and easy to prove.  They require nothing more than a calculator or a copy of Excel and 30 seconds of your time.  The data in the above graphs is taken from official government and Federal Reserve publications.  It is exactly what is presented to, and is available to, everyone worldwide.  I have not “interpreted”, “interpolated” or “projected” anything in the above data. 

It is simply a presentation of the facts – whether you wish to see them or not.

Do your job Congress.  You’re running out of time.

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More Back-Door Bailouts (BAC This Time)

 

OK, how much is this one going to cost us all?

Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. lender by assets, paid $2.8 billion to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae after the U.S.-owned firms demanded the company buy back mortgages they said were based on faulty data. The bank rose as much as 5.6 percent in New York trading.

So BAC pays out $2.8 billion.  What was and is the loss that was potentially going to be shoved up their tails on this deal?

This, incidentally, does not cover servicing problems, which means it’s arguable that if transfers weren’t made it won’t cover that either.  This remains an unknown.

AGAIN: How much money is the taxpayer on the hook for as a consequence of this arguably unlawful allocation of Federal (that is, tax) money from the government to BAC on a “present value” or even “reasonably-foreseeable loss” basis – without a bill originating in The House?

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George Soros: The United States Must Stop Resisting The Orderly Decline Of The Dollar, The Coming Global Currency And The New World Order

 

In the video you are about to see, George Soros talks about “the creation of a New World Order”, he discusses the need for a “managed decline” of the U.S. dollar and he talks at length of the global need for a true world currency. So just who is George Soros? Well, he is a billionaire “philanthropist” who came to be known as “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England” when he raked in a staggering one billion dollars during the 1992 “Black Wednesday” currency crisis. These days Soros is most famous for being perhaps the most “politically active” (at least openly) billionaire in the world. His Open Society Institute is in more than 60 countries and it spends approximately $600 million a year promoting the ideals that Soros wants promoted. Soros and his pet organizations have played a key role in quite a few “revolutions” around the globe over the last several decades, but these days the main goal of George Soros is to bring political change to the United States.

So exactly what is it that George Soros is trying to accomplish? Well, in a nutshell, what he wants is a Big Brother-style one world government based on extreme European-style socialism, strict population control and the radical green agenda. It would be a world where the state tightly regulates everything that we do for the greater benefit of the environment and of society as a whole.

However, Soros is not the “mastermind of the New World Order” that some have tried to make him out to be.  The truth is that to those in the international banking elite, Soros is considered to be something of a “black sheep” and an “outsider”.  Much of what Soros is trying to accomplish lines up with the goals of the international banking elite, but what they don’t like is that Soros won’t stop publicly talking about a global currency and a “New World Order”.  Of course the international banking elite very much want a global currency and a “New World Order”, but what they don’t need is a “squeaky wheel” like Soros running around drawing unneeded attention to those goals.

Also, Soros does not seem to understand that both sides of the political spectrum in the United States are deeply influenced by the international banking elite.  Sadly, the truth is that the same handful of elitist organizations has dominated the cabinets of every single president that we have had since World War II.  If you doubt this, just check out how many members of each presidential administration over the last 40 years have belonged to either the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission or the Bilderberg Group.  If you have never looked into this before, you will be absolutely shocked.  No matter what president we elect, it is always the exact same organizations that always dominate their cabinets.

But Soros still seems very much trapped within the left/right paradigm and he seems absolutely obsessed with destroying the Republican Party.  For example, Soros spent an insane amount of money attempting to defeat George W. Bush back in 2004.  According to the Center for Responsive Politics, George Soros donated $23,581,000 during that election cycle to political organizations that were trying to keep Bush from being reelected.

Soros has also been a tremendous backer of Barack Obama, although lately Soros seems a bit disenchanted with him.  Through organizations such as the Center for American Progress and MoveOn.org, Soros is constantly trying to influence the state of American politics.

So what is George Soros thinking about these days?  Well, in the video posted below you will see Soros discussing “an orderly decline” of the U.S. dollar, the coming global currency and the importance of the New World Order….

Did you noticed how uncomfortable Soros was when he was saying the term “New World Order”?

The truth is that he knows exactly what that phrase means.  He knows that it is a phrase that he probably shouldn’t say and that will get a lot of attention.

But he said it anyway.

Soros also seemed a bit uncomfortable as he discussed “an orderly decline” of the U.S. dollar.

Soros has been saying the the U.S. dollar needs to go down for quite a while now, and he speaks of the coming fall of the dollar as if it is inevitable.

The only thing that Soros seems to fear is that the “managed decline” of the dollar could “get out of hand” and could lead to global financial chaos.

Soros even had the gall to say that having the dollar be the reserve currency of the world is not in our national interest and that a move to a global currency is “a healthy, if painful, adjustment” that we are just going to have to endure for the greater good of the world economy.

But shouldn’t the American people have something to say about all of this?

Perhaps the American people do not want a “managed decline” of the U.S. dollar.

Perhaps the American people do not want any part of a new “global currency”.

Perhaps the American people do not want any part of a “New World Order”.

But to men like George Soros, it doesn’t really matter what “the little people” think.  In the world that Soros lives in, those with overwhelming amounts of money and power know what is best for the rest of us, and if “the little people” don’t seem to want to go along initially then public opinion can be bought if you just spend enough money.

The sad truth is that we already live in a global economy.  Just go into just about any store across the United States and start picking up products to see where they were made.  Very few of the things we buy are still made in the United States.

Today, labor is a global commodity.  American workers must now directly compete for jobs with those making slave labor wages in China and India.  The fact that millions of U.S. jobs are being offshored and outsourced does not bother advocates of globalism at all because it is supposedly a beneficial thing for the overall global economy.

And most Americans have little to no idea just how much influence international organizations such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the IMF and the WTO have over our daily lives.

The truth is that we already live in a world that has been deeply, deeply integrated.  As this continues, at some point it will only seem “natural” for America to agree to a true global currency and full global political integration.

Let us hope that day never arrives.  Or at least let us hope that the American people wake up enough to not just go passively into a “New World Order”.

A global economy is bad for America and a global government would be really bad for America.

But perhaps you disagree.  Perhaps you believe that integrating our economy, our currency and our government with the rest of the world would be a wonderful thing.  If that is the case, please feel free to leave a comment explaining exactly why globalism is such a wonderful thing for all of us….

The Economic Collapse

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Beware Incessant Cheerleading And Economic Data Headlines

 

Be careful what you hear in the media regarding the stock market and economic data.  Almost without exception, they aren’t giving you the entire story. They’re counting on you not to look past the headlines.

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Beware The Claims Of Cash-Hoarding

 Here it comes again….

At the end of the third quarter, cash held by 419 nonfinancial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 list was up 49% from three years ago—before the start of the recession—while total debt was up a more modest 14%, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

Sounds good, right?

Then explain this:

That’s equity value divided by (tangible assets less debt), all from The Fed Z1.

It doesn’t lie folks.

Cash is a tangible asset.

So what’s really going on here?  We have the market crooners – again – ignoring deterioration in asset values across Corporate America.  We’re again trading on hype and claims that are true but materially misleading in that they omit the other parts of the equation.  And while cash has gone up, the value of property, plant and equipment has plummeted much faster, leading the current leverage index to nearly triple since the recession began.

If corporations spend their cash they will drive this ratio even higher (more unfavorable), and so will further increases in stock prices.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, an unfavorable Corporate Leverage Index does not mean the market cannot go up.  It is, however, a very clear measure of risk.  It represents the number of dollars you must spend on a common stock in order to get one dollar of tangible liquidation asset – whether that asset be property, plant, equipment, or cash.

Normally recessions lead to material declines in this ratio as corporate leverage comes out of the system during a recession as a consequence of bankruptcies, reorganizations and stock price declines.

This time the exact opposite thing happened, and the change was not small.

This is what happens when you produce a claimed “economic recovery” on lies

Beware.

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Nobody Needs To Clean Anymore!

“The economic environment in the second quarter has remained challenging,” Chief Executive Officer Don Knauss said in the statement.

When you cut back on the bleach and Pine Sol, you know things are bad.

The cause?  My belief is that it all comes down to the abuse of leverage and input costs.

Again, watch that corporate leverage index. 

This is a chicken that will eventually come home to roost, and my expectation is that the margin story starts to show up this quarter, which earnings due to start up here shortly.

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ISM: First Mess Of The Year – 57.0

 Here’s…..Johnny!

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December for the 17th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 20th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

Uh huh.

The problem in the report is prices paid.  This is the same problem I’ve been highlighting for months now – and there’s no way this escapes having an impact on corporate earnings.

Oh, the crooners will try to discount it, but it won’t work.  Sure, the market is up ~2% on the Russell and Nasdaq today, and the DOW is up 100 – but most of it was before the number release.

The brown-nose media at least mentioned the prices paid problem this time around – it only took them six months to come to the conclusion that there might be a problem there. 

The issue remains this – pick your poison, they’re both bad.  Either margins compress or consumer purchasing power gets trashed.  In a world where labor is instantly arbitraged overseas there is no way to couple price increases back to wages for the vast majority of Americans.

As such the premise that we can “inflate away the debt” and it will all be ok is idiotic.  It simply cannot happen as the average American does not possess any way to leverage these price increases back into their economic situation and thus grow their purchasing power at least as quickly as prices go up.  This makes it impossible for manufacturers to pass through the increase in materials cost.

As I noted in my 2011 Ticker I believe this will be the story of 2011 that nobody, thus far, has talked about to any material degree.  Yet it is what matters in the end when it comes to the final outcome for the economy.

I wish I could find a way to be bullish on a forward basis, even if it was to come up with some sort of nonsense scenario that took leverage out of the economy by “inflating debt away” as so many have claimed we will do. 

Unfortunately the numbers say otherwise – that the premise that we’ve all been operating on for the two years has been a false God -  hard assets have continued to decline in value even though their carried price has remained in the idiot zone from 2007 when everything smelled like a rose.

Remember, in 2007 there was nothing that anyone could do that was wrong.  M&A was booming, we had “Merger Monday” every week, Downey Savings and Loan was going to $100 and then $120, Countrywide was going to own the mortgage business and the stock market was going to go up another 15-20% next year.

Instead it all came apart because leverage had built in the system and despite the machinations of The Fed, who tried like hell starting in August of 2007 to stop it, they could not keep the truth from being realized.

We’re in the same place today but with corporate leverage at three times the level it was in 2007, unemployment vastly higher which makes it even more impossible to couple price increases back into wages, a budget deficit more than double where it was in 2007 and prices paid are ramping once again.

I wish we were not in this position, and if we had done the right things then we wouldn’t be – but we are.

Margin compression – or if you prefer, collapse – will be the buzzword this year.

You heard it here first, starting in the early fall of 2010.

It becomes realized in 2011.

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