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Archive for February 4th, 2011

Did US Monetary Policy Cause Unrest In The Arab World?

 

The media is finally waking up.  Along with Fox News’s Larry Kudlow, now Dylan Ratigan of MSNBC sees the clear correlation between the Federal Reserve (with permission from Congress) devaluating the US dollar (QE I, II and lordknowshowmanymore) and the skyrocketing prices of essential commodities for the rest of the world.  The simple fact is that commodities are priced in US dollars.  If the dollar is going down in value, it takes more of these other countries’ currency to purchase them.  All countries other than the US must first exchange their own currency for US dollars before purchasing needed commodities like wheat, beans, rice and sugar.  This makes essential food impossible for them to afford. 

Egypt used to produce nearly all the wheat it needed to sustain its people – but now, it imports almost all of its wheat supply.  In the past year, Egypt has experienced a 47% increase in the price of its wheat.  For people making only $2.00/day on average, exactly how long is it before many starve?  This situation is playing out across the globe.  Starving people do desperate things.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Now when you turn on the news and you watch the violence breaking out all over the world, you’ll know who to blame.  While you’re at it, realize that the other pertinent fact here is that all this US dollar devaluation is for one reason and one reason only:  to hide the insolvency of the major US banks.  These are the very same banks commiting massive fraud against millions of homeowners across the country.   The very same banks that Congress forced you to support with your taxpayer money.

The banks, Congress and this Administration is desperately hoping you don’t figure this out.  Our government is now completely devoid of any morality or ethics.  Are you?

The Cycle of Corruption

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Employment Report: IT SUCKS (UPDATED)

 

Wow…. if you remember on the ADP and Claims numbers, I said I was expecting +100k.

That was way off – we really got +36k.

 

 

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 9.0 percent in January, while nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+36,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in manufacturing and in retail trade but was down in construction and in transportation and warehousing. Employment in most other major industries changed little over the month.

Youch.

There’s no love in here.  Worse, the benchmark revisions are out, and they show about 300,000 supposedly-reported jobs that didn’t really happen.  No, really?  How come that number seems to always be in this direction?  That is, why is it that the BLS always seems to over-report reality in the establishment survey?

That inconvenient truth, incidentally, is why I always use the household numbers.  They’re at least a real survey without BS “adjustments” applied and while they’re subject to sampling error at least they’re not intentionally distorted. 

This officially sucks.

On a month-by-month basis the number of actual employed people dropped by more than 1.5 million!  That’s a huge decrease and what’s worse, the trend is awful, being unbroken now since the first of last year.

Remember, we need about +150,000 in actual employment just to keep up with new entrants into the workforce.  We instead lost ten times that number of actual employed.

The monthly numbers are noisy in this regard, but there’s simply no way to argue “strength” in these numbers, irrespective of how much cheerleading you’d like to do.

Not-in-labor force numbers are still rising, but the annualized change is now negative.  That’s a positive.  Mildly.  Unfortunately it’s not turning into actual jobs, it’s turning into people looking for work and not finding it. 

The employment rate posted a new low for the recessionary period – 57.6%, falling below the 57.8% registered in January of 2010. 

There has been no improvement – at all – in the employment picture, and in fact the employed rate, as a percentage of the non-institutionalized population, is now the worst it has been since the economic downturn began.

Recovery my ass.

The Market-Ticker

A few more charts, courtesty of Calculated Risk

Percent Job Losses During Recessions

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Unemployed Over 26 Weeks

Yup.  Lies, lies and more damn lies.

UPDATE:  Rick Santelli of CNBC had a few choice words to add about the Employment Report:

Santelli continued to criticize the spin: “You know what Steve? You and I both know that the unemployment rate, the labor force moving in and out, those giving up, is really probably your best statistical reason for the drop to 9.0 (percent). And in terms of jobs, you, Mr. Steve Liesman, said if you work just one day. If you stay home but you get paid you’re counted in the data …”

 

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Pissed Off!: 67 Percent Of Americans Are Dissatisfied With The Size And Influence Of Major Corporations

 

The American people are becoming increasingly angry about the extraordinary amount of power and influence that corporations have in the United States today.  A new Gallup poll found that 67 percent of Americans are dissatisfied with the size and influence of major corporations in the United States today.  Not only that, the most recent Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index found that only 26 percent of Americans trust our financial system at this point.  The mainstream media is acting as if this is a new phenomenon, but the truth is that a dislike of giant corporations goes all the way back to the founding of this nation.  Our founders held a deep distrust for all big concentrations of power, and they intended to set up a nation where no one person or no one institution could become too powerful.

Unfortunately, we have very much strayed from those principles.  In the United States today, the federal government completely dominates all other levels of government and mammoth international corporations completely dominate our economy.

If our founding fathers could see what is going on today they would probably roll over in their graves.

The history of the corporation can be traced back to the early part of the 17th century when Queen Elizabeth I established the East India Trading Company.

Our founders were not too fond of the East India Trading Company.  In fact, it was their tea that was dumped into the harbor during the original Boston Tea Party.

In his book entitled “Unequal Protection”, Thom Hartman described the great antipathy that our founders had for the East India Trading Company….

“Trade-dominance by the East India Company aroused the greatest passions of America’s Founders – every schoolboy knows how they dumped the Company’s tea into Boston harbour. At the time in Britain virtually all members of parliament were stockholders, a tenth had made their fortunes through the Company, and the Company funded parliamentary elections generously.”

So a disgust for great concentrations of financial power is built into our national DNA.

Many people today think of giant international corporations as being synonymous with “capitalism”, but that is just not the case.

Our founders envisioned a land where free enterprise could flourish in an environment where no institution held too much power.

So this false left/right debate about whether we should give more power to the government or more power to the corporations is largely a bunch of nonsense.

If the founders were around today they would say that we need to take a lot of power away from both of them.

Fortunately, it looks like the American people are starting to think the same thing.  Not only are the American people dissatisfied with government, they are also becoming increasingly dissatisfied with big corporations.

As mentioned above, according to Gallup two-thirds of Americans are now dissatisfied with the size and influence of major corporations in America today….

As you can see, the gap between those in favor of the size and influence of major corporations and those not in favor has been significantly widening over the past decade.

That is a good thing.

Not only that, but the latest Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index shows that Americans have very little trust in the financial system at this point.

The following are some of the key findings from their most recent report….

*Only 26 percent of Americans trust the nation’s financial system.

*Only 13 percent of Americans trust big corporations.

*Only 16 percent of Americans trust the stock market.

*Only 43 percent of Americans trust the banks.

These numbers are staggering, but they should not be surprising.  The American people were not pleased at all when the major banks and big financial institutions were showered with bailouts during the recent financial crisis.  A lot of that anger is still simmering.

The recent housing collapse, which is still ongoing, was caused in great part by the behavior of the major banks and big financial institutions, but it is the American people which have suffered the most from it.  The following very brief animation from Taiwan demonstrates this very humorously….

The American people are still wondering where their “bailouts” are.  Most of the big banks and big corporations seem to be thriving even while the number of Americans slipping into poverty continues to grow.

According to Calculated Risk, approximately 15 million Americans are unemployed, about 9 million Americans are working part-time for “economic reasons” and approximately 4 million American workers have left the labor force since the beginning of the economic downturn.

When you total that all up, you get 28 million Americans that wish they had full-time jobs.

Ouch.

There are other numbers that are very disturbing as well.  In the month of November, the number of people on food stamps set another new all-time record: 43.6 million Americans.

So we have tens of millions of Americans that can’t get the jobs that they want and we have tens of millions of Americans that can’t feed themselves without government assistance.

No wonder so many people are angry at the big corporations!

The U.S. government has showered the big corporations and the big banks with bailouts, tax breaks and cheap loans and yet the big corporations and the big banks are not coming through for the American people.

Meanwhile, food prices continue to go up.  According to the United Nations food agency, global food prices set another new all-time record during the month of January, and they are expected to continue rising for months to come.

That certainly is not going to ease tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere around the world.  When people are not able to pay for the food that they need that tends to make them very, very angry.

For now we are not likely to see food riots in the United States, but as food prices rise all of those food stamp cards are not going to go as far as they used to.  Average American families are going to feel more strain at the supermarket.  There will be less money available for other things.

A key indicator to watch is the price of oil.  The price of oil is one of the key components of the price of food, and if we see the price of oil go up to $120 or $150 a barrel that could mean really bad things for both the U.S. economy and the overall global economy.

If we do see another financial crisis like we did in 2008, is the U.S. government going to rush to bail out the big corporations and the big banks like they did the last time?

As we have seen from the numbers above, that certainly would not sit well with the American people.

The Economic Collapse

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Systemic And Intential Fraud? (Part I and II)

 

Gee, a bank would never create a system that was intentionally programmed to screw the customer….. especially a state pension fund…. right?

What’s this?

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. currency traders used a foreign-exchange system called “Charlie” to create fake trades and overcharge Virginia pension funds by at least $20 million, according to allegations in recently unsealed documents in a Virginia court.

Oh, the allegation is that they did exactly that!

To be fair the banks involved are denying they did anything wrong.  But this has whistleblowers involved, who it appears have inside information on exactly how this was done, and unfortunately there also appear to be records that at least strongly imply that there was a problem with the execution of these trades.

The alleged scheme was to take a foreign currency order and then “give” the fund the worst price of the day for it – that is, if buying give them the highest price and if selling give them the lowest, when in fact the bank had executed the trade “on time.”  This of course would allow the bank to pocket the difference between the actual executed trade and the worst price of the day.

This sort of scheme is also illegal, if indeed it happened, as you’re paying the institution to execute the trade when ordered, not to skim off as much as it can by structuring the transactions to its benefit and your detriment.

At this point it appears the allegations include trades executed for Florida, Virginia and California pension funds, and include State Street and Bank of NY Mellon.

We shall see what sort of evidence is developed as this proceeds…. watch this one closely folks, as if this is proved up it’s hard-core evidence of an intentional scheme developed for the express purpose of screwing the customer, in this case state pension funds, out of significant amounts of money.

If this claim is proved up the obvious question will then be “who else got hosed and by what mechanism?” within the banking system, since the allegation here is made that the in-house systems involved were intentionally designed to produce the scam, not that a single bad broker or other individual exploited some sort of loophole.

*************************************************************************************************

And in a follow-up to the sordid accusations against BONY and State Street, we have this!

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ignored or dismissed warning signs about the Madoff fraud even as it earned hundreds of millions of dollars from its relationship with his firm, according to a lawsuit unsealed Thursday.

Uh yeah, I’ve speculated on this before.  How do you have a custodial account relationship with a huge fund like Madoff’s that never clears an actual trade and yet not have any idea that something funny is going on – and that “funny” thing might be criminal?

Well, as it turns out, the bankruptcy trustee believes that not only did JP Morgan suspect something was wrong, they were pretty sure of it and yet continued and enabled the relationship for the purpose of making a profit.

“While numerous financial institutions enabled Madoff’s fraud, JPMC was at the very center of that fraud, and thoroughly complicit in it,” according to the 115-page lawsuit, filed under seal in December by Irving Picard, the trustee seeking to recover money for Mr. Madoff’s victims and made public on Thursday.

The profit, in this case, was more than a billion dollars.

JP Morgan denies wrongdoing and knowledge.  We’ll see.

I’d argue that it’s pretty tough to move the sort of money around that Madoff did and not have any idea how it’s happening.  But that’s me – after all, we are talking about a total “take” here of $50 billion, right?  That’s the total scam that Madoff supposedly was responsible for, which strongly implies that this amount of money had to either come or go somewhere, and if it came and went without leaving any sort of trace in the market then I think we got ourselves a little bit of a problem.

Picard’s lawsuit was filed under seal in December.

The Market-Ticker

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