US Treasury: Which Month Doesn't Fit?


This is ugly….

1/31/2006   25,645,896,285.90
1/31/2007   27,336,683,880.94
1/31/2008    8,835,629,723.80
1/30/2009  -67,799,617,875.20
1/29/2010  -32,713,679,545.20
1/31/2011  105,835,837,302.30


This is the January actual operating deficits in terms of debt increase or decrease by Treasury.

Just looking back to 2006 there’s a real problem here.  January is normally a good month for the deficit because the last estimated payment is due; ergo, we should have lower deficit numbers.

The bad news is that if this trend continues we’re going to blow the $1.7 trillion numbers from last calendar year with some authority.  As I pointed out in my annual Ticker, we are on a path toward a $2 trillion deficit this calendar year, and I have no expectation, and neither should you, that we’ll get away with that.

This much is certain: The government has been lying about intentions on deficits forever.  We have now run three years consecutively where we have said we’ll stabilize and then start dropping the deficit, and instead we have gone the other direction.  The argument for short-term stimulus must have a “use-by” date, and yet we simply refuse to stamp a date on it, instead saying “we’ll do it until employment returns.”

What if employment does not come back because the deficit spending and government mandates are causing continued unemployment by forcing input cost ramps that squeeze producers?

That’s something you should contemplate carefully, because if this is anything close to accurate then we’re going to go right down the toilet while screaming but it will get better – I promise!

The time to learn from our mistakes and stop the insanity is quickly running out.

The Market-Ticker