FedUpUSA

Unemployment Claims: More Revisions Mask Truth

 

There’s nothing like a revision to turn an increase into a decrease….

In the week ending March 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 394,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,250, a increase of 3,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 391,000.

Except last week they said….

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 386,750.

Got that?  They adjusted the previous week’s claims number up 12,000 and then claim that a 6,000 decrease from the revised number is a falling number.  No, it’s a 6,000 claim increase.

See how they lie?

The “big table” doesn’t tell us much – it’s basically flat for the week of the 12th.

Nothing in here changes my view on the number tomorrow – +150k with a 50k error bound, but as is always the case I care nothing for the “headline” machined number from the Bureau of Lies and Slander (BLS); the important data, which I will analyze as I always do, is found in the household tables where they actually count people instead of “massaging” the figures to suit whatever they desire – and think they can get away with.

The Market-Ticker

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