Archive for May, 2011
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Hoenig: So Close And Yet So Far
Well well look what spewed from this guy’s mouth:
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said banks’ business should be confined to loans and deposits to avert a recurrence of the federal bailouts and near-collapse of the financial system in 2008.
Add one more thing and you’re there Thomas: One dollar of capital.
That is, a bank can only loan against something that actually exists. It can loan against collateral value (marked to the market in each and every case) or it can loan against capital it either owns (e.g. retained earnings) or has borrowed (e.g. from bondholders.)
Do that and “Too Big to Fail” instantly disappears. So does systemic risk. Business risk and the possibility of going bankrupt does not, of course, nor should it.
One simple change Thomas, and we have a safe and sound banking system.
It’s not that tough.
Day Of Reckoning For Commercial Real Estate In 2012
Day of reckoning for commercial real estate in 2012 – largest amount of loans maturing next year as $150 billion in CRE debt comes due. Federal Reserve running out of options in hiding financially disastrous real estate loans.
The Federal Reserve has tried its best to hide the secrets of past banking blunders deep in its balance sheet. Commercial real estate (CRE) loans made in haste during the real estate bubble are part of this national disgrace in banking folly. As the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury digitally print the dollar into oblivion the bad CRE loans still linger in the Fed balance sheet. As it turns out the Fed has become the dumping ground for all things real estate and has traded toxic loans for quality liquidity to fuel the banks back up. CRE debt in the form of empty shopping malls, failed hotels, and tumbleweed occupied strip malls is only a flavor of what the Fed is taking on. Yet many of these loans are still occupying the balance sheet of many banks. As it turns out, there was so much junk in the CRE market that the Fed could only balloon their balance sheet and still not encompass one half of the CRE market. Many CRE loans are coming due in 2012. Is the day of reckoning for CRE coming in 2012?
$150 billion coming due in CRE loans in 2012
Over $150 billion in CRE loans are maturing in 2012 bringing the day of reckoning closer. Why is this a problem? First, the CRE market has completely imploded:
Source: MIT
CRE values just like residential real estate have cratered and are down over 50 percent since their peak. Much of these properties require actual economic streams of income coming in for example in strip mall rents or hotel occupancies to keep servicing the debt. Unlike a home that has other sentimental values a CRE property is strictly a business decision. The Federal Reserve is seeing the tanking of valuations at the absolute worst time. The Fed treating the crisis as one of liquidity simply exchanged U.S. Treasuries for toxic CRE debt to drinking buddy banks. After all what is the harm in keeping the junk for a few years and when prices recover, a simple hand off and the public has no idea what happened except they just have to contend with greater goods inflation as their purchasing power falls through the floor. However the bailouts of 2007 never helped the overall economy because the crisis is one of solvency, not liquidity. The working and middle class are struggling because their purchasing power has washed away over the decades and the bailouts were simply geared to the too big to fail banks.
CRE is a giant problem because the number of buyers vying for a strip mall is relatively small. Unlike a residential property, if the price drops low enough on a home the market will respond. If a strip mall was poorly built in a bad location you may have no buyers regardless of cost. And make no mistake banks have shut the door on CRE fairly hard:
Source: World Property Channel
The fiasco in CRE can only last so long. The Fed balance sheet has exploded during this crisis and you can rest assured billions of dollars in CRE loans are floating in the un-audited figures:
CRE is merely following the pattern outlined by the residential real estate bubble effectively creating a situation where a double bubble developed:
Source: The American
2012 is looking like the day of reckoning for CRE debt. First, you have an American public that is absolutely frustrated by the ineffective handouts to the banking system of the country. The hunger for a full Fed audit is getting louder and louder. Politicians will sway in the way of their financial backers but only to the extent they feel they can get away with their smoke and mirrors and deceive the public. That shell game is becoming harder and harder to maintain. At what point does the government step in and do what is best for the economy and not the big banking interests? How does bailing out a failing hotel or empty strip mall really help the average working American? It doesn’t. Banks were eager to make these loans and profited handsomely during the bubble. Now they don’t want to deal with the consequences of taking on too much risk so they rather socialize the losses on the public. This is not capitalism but a banking corporatocracy. CRE debt will come due in large amounts in 2012 and unless prices soar to the sky in the next year, some major rebalancing will need to occur.
There is no inflating out of the real estate mess and CRE is no exception. Unless household incomes go up disposable income is going to get tighter. We are already seeing more money being eaten up by food and energy and baby boomers will definitely see more money flowing into the healthcare industry complex. From one frying pan to another it will become about priorities and CRE will move lower on the list. The day of reckoning for CRE is coming next year and only time will tell how the market will respond.
European Central Bank Freaking Out Over Greece
“There’s no solution possible” for Greece other than its austerity program, Noyer, Bank of France governor, told reporters in Paris today. “Restructuring is not a solution, it’s a horror story.” If the country fails to meet the terms of its bailout, Greek government debt will be “ineligible as collateral” at the ECB, he said.
Right. All those institutions that bought this paper believing they were “too big to fail” would have to face the fact that they’re not, that they can fail, that the government will let them fail.
This is not a bad thing, it’s a good thing. It’s called “market discipline” and is really important.
“The lengthening of maturities raises very difficult questions,” Noyer said. “There’s a strong chance it will be the equivalent of a default.”
That’s because it is a default.
The ECB last year suspended the minimum credit-rating threshold for Greek bonds after the country’s banks were shut out of credit markets for funding. Banks can borrow as much money as they need for up to three months against collateral.
So the ECB made a decision to take crap. Now they’re whining that it tastes like, well, crap.
Who’s responsibility is this again?
“The markets are getting impatient, they don’t see a real sort of light at the end of the tunnel,”
There’s a light.
It’s a train.
For Greece ‘to reduce the stock of debt, the only solution is ambitious privatization,” Noyer said. “It is necessary to have the equivalent of an internal devaluation. Cut production costs. There is no other solution.”
Yes there is. Greece can tell the ECB this:

And they should.
Ohio Appeals Court Reverses Another Lower Court Error In Foreclosure Action
Ohio Appeals Court Reverses Another Lower Court Error In F’closure Action; Nixes Bankster Affidavit Based On Computer ‘Screenshot’ Of Account Details
- In Deutsche Bank National Trust Company v. Hansen, 2011 WL 899625 (Ohio App. 5 Dist., 2011), borrowers defending a foreclosure action successfully challenged whether a bank’s representative could testify in an affidavit concerning the amount due based on a screen shot when the bank’s representative could not explain how such information was collected and compiled. Based on such facts, the borrowers argued the bank could not qualify the screen shot under the business record exception to the hearsay rule.
- The borrowers argued that the trial court erred in admitting the screen shot as evidence of the amount due and sought to strike the affidavit of the bank representative, asserting that it was not based on her personal knowledge.
- The bank representative testified at her deposition that she did not know who entered the information into the computer to generate the amount owed, nor did she know how such information was collected and compiled. The borrowers argued that while her affidavit states that it was based on personal knowledge, the bank representative’s deposition testimony reflected that while she saw a screen shot of the balance due, she could not explain how that figure was arrived at by the bank.
***
- The Court of Appeals for Fairfield County determined that the bank’s representative did not have personal knowledge as to how the bank arrived at the balance due as viewed on the screen shot. The borrowers argued the screen shot is hearsay and did not meet the exception for a business record because there is no evidence of its origins or the circumstances surrounding its existence.
For more, see Court erred in admitting screen shot as evidence of amount due for purposes of granting summary judgment (Rule 803(6) of the ohio rules of evidence, business records hearsay exception, construed) (requires paid subscription; if no subscription, GO HERE; or TRY HERE – then click the appropriate link for the story).
For the ruling, see Deutsche Bank Natl. Trust Co. v. Hansen, 2011-Ohio-1223 (Ohio App. 5th Dist. March 10, 2011).
Representing the homeowner were Benjamin D. Horne, Peggy P. Lee, and Luke Feeney of Southeastern Ohio Legal Services,(1) Lancaster, Ohio.
(1) Southeastern Ohio Legal Services is a non-profit law firm that, within its coverage area, gives legal help without attorney fees to people with low income and limited savings and assets, and also serves organizations of low-income people.
Richmond Fed: More Bad News
Service sector activity slowed in May, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Retail sales dwindled as shopper traffic dropped sharply; big ticket sales remained in decline. Revenues also weakened at non-retail services firms. Looking ahead six months, retail merchants pulled back from their optimism of a month ago. Non-retail services providers maintained a positive outlook, but were less upbeat than in April.
Service sector revenues softened in May, pulling the index to 9 from 28.
Yucko.
The internals were NASTY on retail traffic and sales:
Retail sales cooled in May, as shopper traffic fell sharply. The revenues index slashed twenty-one points from last month’s reading, ending the survey period at 3. The index for shopper traffic plummeted from 34 to -29 in May. In addition, falling big-ticket sales remained a drag on overall sales revenues. The big-ticket index faltered once again, finishing at -27, compared to April’s -31.
That’s outright contraction and not in a small way either.
Recession indicator? Yep. Look at the deterioration in the retail indicators:
Revenues down, wage demand up, big ticket sales in the trashcan and shopper traffic collapsed.
“Here it comes”












