FedUpUSA

Archive for August, 2011

Hiding commercial real estate losses by laundering bad loans through the Federal Reserve.  Trillions of dollars in bailouts were made while banks told the public all was well.

Part of the massive challenges facing our brittle financial system is the opaque and secretive nature of the Federal Reserve.  It is difficult enough to confront a challenge with all information present but make it purposely convoluted and dark and we have a crisis of historical proportions.  The recent market volatility is simply a dire reflection of a system unsure of what is going on.  Markets despise distrust and that is what we are finding.  A few years ago we were told that the banking system was fine yet we now have data showing over $1.2 trillion in emergency loans were made to countless too big to fail banks.  In other words we were being lied to by both the Federal Reserve and the giant banks that largely created and spread this financial crisis like wildfire.  As more information leaks out we are starting to get a grim picture of how the Federal Reserve assisted and is assisting banks not only to hide residential real estate loans but also toxic commercial real estate debt.  Over $3 trillion in commercial real estate (CRE) values has evaporated since the crisis took hold yet banks continue to tell the public all is well while shifting these toxic bets onto the taxpayer balance sheet.

The collapse in CRE values

Source:  MIT

CRE values have already experienced a lost decade and are likely to remain depressed for years to come.  Many of these properties were developed with lofty aspirations and with future growth in mind yet an economy that is contracting has little use for more commercial space.  It is also the case that many of these CRE projects were designed for high flying easy money days.  Take for example some of the condo mix projects in Las Vegas.  Many now sit empty when they were once envisioned as selling for millions of dollars to high rolling aficionados.  Those days simply did not materialize because austerity is taking hold across the world because the debt bubble has burst.  The chart above is data collected monthly by MIT on CRE values.  It is rather obvious that the trajectory of CRE values has imploded since the crisis hit.  Yet somehow the Federal Reserve is openly shifting CRE debt onto its trillion dollar balance sheet even though it knows these are failed projects.  Why?  To aid and protect the banks it serves, not the nation’s economic wellbeing.

Read the rest at My Budget 360

I hope you are.

Today (August 22, 2011) proved one thing – oversold doesn’t mean jack.  The ~20 handle pop into the open was sold into immediately, despite the market’s severely-oversold condition.

A condition that is worse than during the height of the 08/09 crash.

Drill that into your head folks: The government doesn’t get it, exactly as they didn’t get it in early 2008.  They are, right now, squandering the opportunity to take effective action.  I know this for a fact because the Republican Caucus has refused to address the issue and I know they’re aware of it.

This weekend I listened to McCain with his condescending bullcrap on talk TV.  Let me remind you, this is the same Senator McCain who I sent this letter to in 2008 predicting what was going to happen in the election if he did not act.  He did not, and he lost.  In fact, today he still claims that he couldn’t see it coming.  Not only did he see it coming, his campaign manager was in receipt of that letter and Governor Ridge personally told me at that campaign event that they knew full well it was all driven from greed and scams.  In short, not only did he lie about what he knew at the time he’s still lying.

This is the GOP.  This is what it has done and is doing.  The GOP is proving time and time again that it will not get in front of these issues because doing so means kneecapping the banksters that have trashed our economy and continue to do so today.

Not that Obama, Pelosi and Reid are any better, of course.

The GOP doesn’t care, the Democrats don’t care, and you’re going to get creamed.

There is no way to avoid what’s coming.  We have added roughly $4.5 trillion in debt to the Federal balance sheet trying to paper it over and have failed.  Even the “good” banks like JP Morgan and Goldman are failing to make progress.  The poorer ones such as Citibank, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are seeing their market prices collapse.  The XLF, the composite of the large banks, is back to where it was in the summer of 2009.  Should it break below these levels it is likely going for the spring 2009 lows.

All the fraudulent accounting games, shifting Granny’s earnings on her CDs to the banks through zero-interest rates and money printing have been used up as policy tools.  There are few if any weapons left in the arsenal to combat what is coming.

This is where we are, and where we’re going.

I’m sure this will be scoffed at.  We’ll see.  Go have a look at 2000 if you’d like.  It’s pretty similar.  Through the mid-bolinger on the monthly, a bounce back, often off or near the lower bolinger, then a collapse that loses half or more of the market’s value.  Twice, and now we’re setting up for it again.  It’s as clear as day and the reasons for it are just as clear now as they were before.

The time in that chart is probably not quite to scale, but I bet the price move is.

Impossible?  Oh no it’s not.  The Nikkei stood at 40,000 before it collapsed.  It now trades under 10,000 – a 75% loss – decades later.  It has not recovered and neither will we because we refuse as a nation and as a government to force recognition of bogus debt that cannot be paid while destroying capital formation and interest margins with zero interest rates.

400 is roughly where the S&P was before the “great bull market of fraud” began in 1995.  To think we can’t return there when the fraud collapses is utter folly.  We not only can, we probably will.

But instead of putting a stop to the games we choose to allow crazy derivative schemes, balance sheets that do not reflect reality and the repeated asset-stripping from savers and productive members of society, all to protect the “gilded ones” on Wall Street from the just consequences of their own 30-year old foibles and scams.

Now let me explain what happens “down there”, because it is my unbroken opinion, going back to 2007, that’s where we’re headed irrespective of attempts to stop it (and we’ve already seen how fast those attempts unwind when they fail, haven’t we?)

• Every pension fund blows up.  All of them.  Many doubled into the decline and will be utterly destroyed.  Chief among them will be big municipal funds like CALPERs.  If you have a pension of some sort, ask the pension administrator what happens to your pension if the S&P goes to 400 and stays there.  He’ll poo-poo your question – but I bet he won’t answer it.
• Annuities and insurance companies blow up.  You don’t think they can pay when they’re figuring on an 8% annualized return, do you?  Well, no they can’t.  Oh yeah, your state insurance on those is $100,000 in most states – the rest of your principal is “at risk.”  This, of course, assumes the State has the $100,000 too.  Did you know this in advance or are you learning it now (let’s not hope the latter is true!)
• The FDIC has no prayer of covering it.  The good news is that if they act now they can shut the banks that are exposed and cram down debt to equity.  The bad news is that they have a horrible record in doing that in a timely manner and of late the losses have been anywhere from 20-40% of assets, which is both a violation of the law (“Prompt Corrective Action” is supposed to prevent this from happening) and they have no way to cover it should it become a widespread problem.  It will.  Oh yeah, you can’t sue the government either.  Have a nice day.
• The government Ponzi blows up.  Unemployment will reach 20% or more.  Tax receipts will get cut in half.  Deficit spending will be impossible.  Instead of a 40% “draconian” cut in government spending we will have to cut spending by 60% or more.  Entitlements will be decimated; retirement entitlements will go last, but go they will.  Food stamps, Section 8, Medicaid, all gone.  Bet on it.

• All the other things that depend on the government Ponzi blow up.  Medical care as we know it, education, state programs, all gone.  We will return to a simpler time whether we like it or not, and we won’t like it.  That much I’m sure of.
• Best guess on whether civil order is lost.  In some places I’m sure things will be fine in that regard, likely in places where self-defense is recognized as the unalienable right that it is.  In others?  Not so much.  If you live in a big city – or an “unfriendly” place in regards to self-defense, you need to be thinking about this quite-seriously.  Yesterday would have been a good time to consider it and figure out what you’re going to do about it.
• Short-term and minor to moderate disruptions in what would be considered “essential” goods and services are likely.  Go down the list and figure out what you must have and what you can do without.  Be realistic.  Most people won’t be, which will put you one step in front of them.
• The world will recognize the Depression we have tried to cover up.  This is not a US-centric story.  The Eurozone will get the unemployment and tax consequences too.  Germany will be forced to choose between propping up the entire rest of the Euro (which it can’t) and detonating it and going back to the Deutsche Mark (which it will be forced to.)  There is a very high probability of war that comes out of this, although the exact trigger is not something I can forecast.  War is the classical solution to these problems, and it is unlikely to be different this time.

This is going to be a rough time folks.  Our government has refused to deal with the basic mathematical constructs that underlay all economies and debt.  It’s not a matter of competing theoretical ideas – it’s a matter of basic mathematical laws.  We are now running into the end game where entire nations are coming unglued along with their various patrons and parasites, as the cold, hard mathematical facts run into the fantasy conjurations of people like Bernanke, Geithner and Obama, along with the chortling harpies on Wall Street.

If they manage to “sticksave” things once again, and you can bet they’ll try, you’ve lost nothing by being prepared.  But even if they do pull another rabbit from the hat, instead of a burning stick of dynamite, there are a limited number of rabbits, there are sticks of dynamite in the hat, one will eventually be inadvertently selected and the games will end.

The only real choice is whether that option will take place voluntarily and now, or involuntarily and later.

Either way it’s going to suck, but a voluntary acceptance of reality will both suck less and be over sooner, along with being able to be mitigated.  An uncontrolled event – which is what we’re headed for at the present time – will be most unpleasant.

PS: Yes, this is an update to the “What’s Broken” ticker….  The last time they reached into the hat they got a rabbit – and made the problem worse.  How many more pulls do you think they’ll get before the burning stick of dynamite pops out?

The official trailer for the film ‘Chasing Madoff’. Look forward to our Chasing Madoff review when the movie is released.

A look at how one investigator spent ten years trying to expose Bernie Madoff’s massive Ponzi scheme that scammed an estimated $18 billion from investors.

Director: Jeff Prosserman
Writers: Jeff Prosserman, Harry Markopolos (book)
Stars: Frank Casey, Neil Chelo and Gaytri Kachroo

Studio: Gusto Goods
Distributor: Cohen Media Group
Release Date: September 16, 2011

Well, one guy is locked up.  When they start putting the REALLY big guys in jail like Jamie Dimond, Lloyd Blankfein and Tom Moynihan, then I’ll be impressed.  Madoff was a bit player.  The real criminals are still not only at large, but still looting all of America.

Does someone know something (again)?

All over America tonight, millions of elderly Americans are wondering if their money is going to run out before it is time for them to die.  Those that are now past retirement age are not going to be rioting in the streets, but that doesn’t mean that large numbers of them are not deeply suffering.  There are millions of elderly Americans that are leading lives of “quiet desperation” as they try to get by on meager fixed incomes.  Many are surviving on Ramen noodles, oatmeal, peanut butter or whatever other cheap food they can find in the stores.  There are some that are so short on cash that they will not turn on the heat in their homes until things get really desperate.  As health care costs soar, millions of elderly Americans find themselves deep in debt and facing huge medical bills that they cannot possibly pay.  A lot of older Americans would go back to work if they could, but jobs are scarce and very few companies seem to even want to consider hiring them.  Right now caring for all of the Americans that have already retired is turning out to be an overwhelming challenge, and things are about to get a whole lot worse.  On January 1st, 2011 the very first Baby Boomers turned 65.  A massive tsunami of retirees is coming, and America is not ready for it.

Sadly, most retirees have not adequately prepared for retirement.  For many, the recent economic downturn absolutely devastated their retirement plans.  Many were counting on the equity in their homes, but the recent housing crash crushed those dreams.  Others had their 401ks shredded by the stock market.

Meanwhile, corporate pension plans all across America are vastly underfunded.  Many state and local government pension programs are absolute disasters.  The federal government has already begun to pay out significantly more in Social Security benefits than they are taking in, and the years ahead are projected to be downright apocalyptic for the Social Security program.

So needless to say, things do not look good for the Baby Boomers that are now approaching retirement age.

The following are 21 signs that the new reality for many Baby Boomers will be to work as wage slaves until they drop dead….

#1 According to a shocking AARP survey of Baby Boomers that are still in the workforce, 40 percent of them plan to work “until they drop”.

#2 A recent survey of American workers that included all age groups found that 54 percent of them planned to keep working when they retire and 39 percent of them plan to either work past age 70 or never retire at all.

#3 A poll conducted by CESI Debt Solutions found that 56 percent of American retirees still had outstanding debts when they retired.

#4 A recent study by a law professor from the University of Michigan found that Americans that are 55 years of age or older now account for 20 percent of all bankruptcies in the United States.  Back in 2001, they only accounted for 12 percent of all bankruptcies.

#5 Between 1991 and 2007 the number of Americans between the ages of 65 and 74 that filed for bankruptcy rose by a staggering 178 percent.

#6 Most of the bankruptcies among the elderly are caused by our deeply corrupt health care system.  According to a report published in The American Journal of Medicine, medical bills are a major factor in more than 60 percent of the personal bankruptcies in the United States.  Of those bankruptcies that were caused by medical bills, approximately 75 percent of them involved individuals that actually did have health insurance.

#7 The U.S. government now says that the Medicare trust fund will run dry five years faster than they were projecting just last year.

#8 Starting on January 1st, 2011 the Baby Boomers began to hit retirement age.  From now on, every single day more than 10,000 Baby Boomers will reach the age of 65.  That is going to keep happening every single day for the next 19 years.

#9 Over 30 percent of all U.S. investors currently in their sixties have more than 80 percent of their 401k retirement plans invested in equities.  So what happens if the stock market crashes again?

#10 All over the United States predatory lenders are coldly and cruelly foreclosing on elderly homeowners.  You can read what one lender is doing to a 70-year-old woman and her terminally ill husband right here.

#11 Medical bills are absolutely devastating large number of elderly Americans right now.  Many are going to great lengths to try to pay their bills.  An elderly woman that lives in the Salem, Oregon area that is fighting terminal bone cancer tried to raise some money for her medical bills by holding a few garage sales on the weekends.  However, a neighbor ratted her out, and so now the police are shutting her garage sales down.

#12 Social Security’s disability program has already been pushed to the brink of insolvency and wave after wave of new applications continue to pour in.

#13 Approximately 3 out of every 4 Americans start claiming Social Security benefits the moment they are eligible at age 62.  Most are doing this out of necessity.  However, by claiming Social Security early they get locked in at a much lower amount than if they would have waited.

#14 According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Social Security system paid out more in benefits than it received in payroll taxes in 2010.  That was not supposed to happen until at least 2016.  Sadly, in the years ahead these “Social Security deficits” are scheduled to become absolutely nightmarish as hordes of Baby Boomers retire.

#15 In 1950, each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by 16 U.S. workers.  In 2010, each retiree’s Social Security benefit was paid for by approximately 3.3 U.S. workers.  By 2025, it is projected that there will be approximately two U.S. workers for each retiree.  How in the world can the system possibly continue to function properly with numbers like that?

#16 According to a shocking U.S. government report, soaring interest costs on the U.S. national debt plus rapidly escalating spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb approximately 92 cents of every single dollar of federal revenue by the year 2019.  That is before a single dollar is spent on anything else.

#17 Most states have huge pension liabilities that are woefully underfunded.  For example, pension consultant Girard Miller recently told California’s Little Hoover Commission that state and local government bodies in the state of California have $325 billion in combined unfunded pension liabilities.  When you break that down, it comes to $22,000 for every single working adult in the state of California.

#18 Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago and Joshua D. Rauh of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management recently calculated the combined pension liability for all 50 U.S. states.  What they found was that the 50 states are collectively facing $5.17 trillion in pension obligations, but they only have $1.94 trillion set aside in state pension funds.  That is a difference of 3.2 trillion dollars.  So where in the world is all of that extra money going to come from?  Most of the states are already completely broke and on the verge of bankruptcy.

#19 According to one recent survey, 36 percent of Americans say that they don’t contribute anything at all to retirement savings.

#20 According to another recent survey, 24 percent of all U.S. workers say that they have postponed their planned retirement age at least once during the past year.

#21 Even though prices for necessities such as food and gas have been exploding, those receiving Social Security benefits have not received a cost of living increase for two years in a row.  Many elderly Americans that are living on fixed incomes are being squeezed like they have never been squeezed before.

There are millions of Americans out there that have done everything “right” all of their lives, but that now find the system letting them down in their golden years.

So how badly are some people hurting?  Well, a reader identified as “Anna44″ recently shared with us what some of her family members have been going through in this economy….

My B-I-L was a dealership owner/manager who worked long hours over 38 years and had to close his doors when Saturn was dissolved. When his dealership went under, 72 others lost their job. That’s 72 families who took a hit. He lost his home, everything. A few of his former employees lost their homes as well eventually. They were not lazy or WORTHLESS. It took him a year and a half to finally find something, but now he lives in a hotel unable to qualify for a house or apartment. This is an educated man who competed nationwide for top dog and got it more then once. His biggest fault? He’s almost 60, young enough to need the work, but too old to be hired.

As for my husband- 26 years AF officer, handling millions & billions on International & National levels has just entered his 7th month of unemployment. Two tours abroad- lazy he is NOT. He doesn’t qualify for unemployment, nor is he counted because he gets a retirement check. He wants and needs to work- yet there is little out there. If he doesn’t find something soon, we too will lose the home we sunk every cent into after 20 years of saving for it!

These are Americans that should be getting ready to enjoy their golden years, but that are now fighting just to survive.

Today you will find a disturbingly large number of elderly Americans flipping burgers or welcoming people to Wal-Mart.  But most of them are not doing it because they are bored with retirement.  Rather, most of them are working as wage slaves because that is what they have to do in order to survive.

Sadly, there are a whole lot of companies out there that do not want to hire people that are past a certain age.  If you are older than 50, there are a lot of jobs that you should just basically forget about applying for.

Instead of valuing the experience and wisdom of our elders, our society openly makes fun of them and treats them as undesirables.

If you are afraid of getting old, you are not being irrational.  Getting old is indeed something to fear in this society.  We tend to treat elderly Americans like garbage.

Abuse of the elderly is rampant.  For example, a report from a couple of years ago found that 94 percent of all nursing homes in the United States had committed violations of federal health and safety standards.

As the U.S. economy continues to crumble, the way we treat the elderly is probably going to get even worse.

Right now there is tons of bad news about the economy, and another major economic downturn would put even more pressure on federal, state and local government budgets.

The truth is that there is simply no way that we can keep all of the financial promises that we have made to elderly Americans even if the most optimistic projections for our economy play out.

If the worst happens, we are going to see a lot more elderly Americans eating out of trash cans and freezing to death in their own homes.

The United States is facing a retirement crisis of unprecedented magnitude.  A comfortable, happy retirement is rapidly going to become a luxury that only the wealthy will enjoy.

For most of the rest of us, our golden years are going to mean a whole lot of pain and suffering.

That may not be pleasant to hear, but that is the truth.

The Economic Collapse