This Is What Happens When….


… confidence is lost.

After being down 634 points today the DOW futures are down 264 more overnight at this point, or approximately 900 points in less than 24 hours.

After being down a stunning 80 points today, the S&P futures are down another 28 overnight, or more than 100 in 24 hours.

Global confidence has been effectively shattered.  The outright lies of governments worldwide – that there was no need to de-lever, there was no need to take insolvent banks into receivership, we could spend more and more on “stimulus” programs along with social spending and that demand represented by deficit spending was all sustainable GDP – all is being exposed as an utter load of crap and the “valuations” these lies have supported are being systematically shredded.

There is no floor as things sit right now.  From a volumetric perspective we have broken key levels with the next serious support in the 900s on the S&P 500.

Price is now back to levels last seen in the early part of 2009 and if the market does not hold up there we are headed for the 666 lows and below.

This evening we are losing about ten points per hour in the overnight session, implying that we will lock-limit down at -50 on the S&P 500 before midnight!

The arrogance of our government – at all levels – has finally reached the point where the markets give the finger to it all.  What’s worse is that it’s not just us – it’s also Europe, where the willful and intentional refusal to deal with the peripheral nations’ problems have turned into a monstrous mess.

To put this in the proper perspective over the last ten trading days we have gone from 1328 on the S&P to 1081, a loss of nearly 19%!

The DOW has gone from 12458 to 10450 – a loss of nearly 20%.

The Russell is down more than 20%; that barrier, incidentally, defines a “Bear Market.”

The panic is not confined to the US and Europe, however.  We are now generating the same sort of panic worldwide!

All of this compels one to ask: Is this “the one”?   The detonation of the markets that results in the recognized entry to the Second Great Depression?

In my opinion, no.

Could it be?  Yes.  But that’s not the odds-on play here.

What I expected to see as indications in front of this decline didn’t happen, and the breakdown appears to be more driven by Obama and our Congress than anything else, along with the ham-handed ECB crap of the last few days than anything else.

The bad news?  The number of stops that have been cleared out – the people who have wildly thrown stocks over the transom during this plunge has cleared out what would have been bids on the way down.  We’re disgustingly oversold at this point to a degree that some of my daily indicators have a reading of “0” – something that I have seen only replicated briefly last summer and during the depths of the collapse in 2008.  Not even during the terminal decline of early 2009 were these indicators pinned on the floor.  They are now.

The more-likely path is that these oversold conditions will produce a monstrous reflex move higher.  But in doing so those who shorted the market late or who sold out in disgust will both be caught on the wrong side of the move, and once again serious amounts of market liquidity will be destroyed.

No, what I believe is coming is that bounce, and then, some time not far in the future, the next move down is the one that doesn’t retrace.

Don’t get complacent.  It will be easy to do, if I’m right.  You’ll see 50, even 100 handles go on the S&P and perhaps as much as 500 or more points on the DOW.  You’ll think “it’s over” as there’s a relentless climb back from what looks like a date with The Devil.

If you are unprepared for what comes after that you will be wiped out.

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