Here Comes The Double Dip (Empire)

Sorry folks, the “recovery” meme has just run out of gas….

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to deteriorate in October. The general business conditions index remained negative and, at -.5, was little changed. The new orders index hovered around zero, indicating that orders were flat, while the shipments index rose above zero to 5.3. The inventories index stayed below zero, a sign that inventories declined. The indexes for both prices paid and prices received fell, but remained positive, suggesting that price increases moderated. The index for number of employees rose several points but was at a relatively low level of 3.4, while the average workweek index was negative for a fifth consecutive month. The future general business conditions index dropped six points to 6.7, its lowest level since early 2009, while future indexes for prices paid and prices received declined.


There is utterly nothing to indicate success in “reflating” or “restarting” the economy here.  Nothing.

This report is just flat-out terrible, no ifs ands or buts.  I wish there was some other way to put this, but there isn’t.  What’s worse is that the composite is now sitting just about where it was in 2010 and just before it all went to hell in 2008.

So what we have here is more validation for my beliefs: The Fed delayed but did not avoid the contraction in 2010 with its “QE2”, and in engaging in that program it weakened both itself and the government in general by destroying both’s ability to respond in the future to financial stress.

Now we have the stress in Europe and elsewhere and the economy is falling apart into an environment where the people know they got rooked.

This is not a good situation and of course those in Congress that could have stood up for what’s right rather than what’s politically expedient didn’t do so.

You’re about to get the bill for your stupidity Washington.

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