Oh It’s Not 2008 Eh?

That’s what all the crooners want you to believe.

Today is 10/4.  Yesterday the S&P closed at 1099.

It also closed at 1099 on that same day in 2008.

Over the next month and a half it would fall to 750, rally for a couple of months to about 900, and then collapse to 666.

Are we about to have a repeat – or a rhyme?

Good question.  This much is not in question – we were down massively yesterday, and today Europe’s DAX, as I write this, is off a further 34%. (ed: oops – that 3% was good for 20 minutes; now it’s 4%)

What does a crash look like?  About like this.  And there’s been nothing – a literal nothing – out of our authorities on the root causes or addressing them.

Most-importantly, Republican leadership, including but not limited to those who have screamed the loudest about the IMF and other “entanglements” have been SILENT about the root of this dislocation.  NOT ONE DAMN WORD HAS PASSED THE LIPS OR KEYBOARDS OF BOEHNER, McMORRIS-ROGERS, McCONNELL, RYAN AND OTHERS ON THE RAW ABUSES AND SCAMS THAT LED TO AND IS FEEDING THIS MARKET COLLAPSE. 

The Democrats are no better – from their side of the aisle? SILENCE.

The simple fact of the matter is that this collapse is happening for the same reason the last one did:


Familiar, isn’t it?  You have banks holding Greek debt at “21%” markdowns, when the market is saying 50% – or more.  The banks claim “this is what it is” when the market disagrees, and the result is that the market pounds their stock into the dust.  This same game is transferring here, with Morgan Stanley threatening to collapse.

Credit spreads are blowing out just as they did in 2008 as well.  Why doesn’t anyone want to look at the cash bond market for these institutions and governments and then come tell me all about credit risk as the market perceives it.  And where does that risk come from?


Hell, we can’t even get one member of the clown-car brigade up above to get in front of a microphone and issue simple words condemning the lies!

The stock market cannot “discount” economic activity when companies are given free license to lie.  But that’s what happened – twice – in the last four years and nobody has gone to jail for it.

If you simply “held on” from the start of the crash in 2007, you’re down about 30%.  If you thought you were smart holding through the 666 low after October of 2008, you’re back where you started in 2008 – but you’re still down 30% from the high.  You probably felt good in March and April of this year.

How’s it working out now?

And the very real possibility that we’re going down here – and right through the 666 lows – does exist.

Your retirement accounts have been shredded twice in three years.  That’s a hell of a record, isn’t it?

The only thing you have in any economy, or in any market, is confidence.  The law says you have a right to trust a balance sheet.  That it should reflect, in all material respects, the firm’s prospects.  The firm is also under an obligation (under Reg FD) to timely disclose material adverse events – like, for instance, the fact that it has no good collateral for its daily market operations.

Did Lehman keep that implied covenant of fair dealing with the market?  With you?  Nope.

It’s time to give up on this government – here and abroad.  It’s time to give up on this market.  You will be lied to, you will watch the crimes be committed, you will lose and lose and lose again, and nothing will be done.

The most-important point of this, however, is not the stock market.  It’s that your pension funds have all been playing the “8% growth” game for three decades and spending money as if those numbers were realistic.  They weren’t.  Your pensions are not going to be paid – a fact I’ve been sounding the alarm on now for years, and if you didn’t believe it then after the ‘big rally” from 2009, you should damn well have been shaken from the events of the last two months.  It is not just Social Security and Medicare that are in trouble, it’s private and public pensions as well.  The assumptions you were sold as “reasonable” were lies and now the truth is asserting itself.

If this pattern holds and again nobody is held to account – nobody is indicted, nobody goes to jail, “primary dealers” continue to have the ability to operate in the United States despite playing these games and American firms are not forced to tell the truth or suffer severe criminal legal consequences this is not a time to buy, it’s a time to leave.  A time to withdraw your consent to be governed through any and all lawful means.  Nobody has been held to account for the events of 2008, and nobody is being held to account now.  There have been no arrests, no prosecutions, no indictments, and nobody has gone to jail.

Go ahead folks, tell me again how voting for a Donkey or an Elephant will fix it.  Just like it did in 2008, right?  You were going to get change, and you had hope.  You did your civic thing and marched off to the polls while the banksters looted you blind.

Well, we’re back where we were in October of 2008, just before you voted.

You hoped.  You thought you’d get change.

But the market is right back where it was just before you voted, unemployment is higher, the government is roughly $4 trillion in the hole more than it was in 2008 and the market is going to force an end to the government spending coverup soon as well.

How, objectively, do you rate your progress in the political sphere America?

And what do you intend to do about it?

Here’s the ugly little fact you don’t want to deal with – but you must:

Until you withdraw your consent through lawful refusal to produce that which can be taxed, force political change to take place and the thieves and liars to be held to account, it’s not going to change.  You will be shorn like sheep and occasionally one or more of you will be turned into lambchops and consumed.  How many of you have to lose your homes to abusive foreclosures – on the back of abusive lending?  How many of you need to lose your jobs to abusive offshoring in the guise of “global competition” and “free trade”?  How many of you need to have your retirement portfolios shredded once again?  You’ve lost 8% in your retirement portfolio (if in the S&P 500) in the last three days alone – how many more days of this do you need?  How many times do you need to see the people who rob you each and every day sipping champagne from their 30th floor multi-million dollar apartments while you scrounge for scraps in the street and wave signs?

You bought into the BS run in 2008 and 2009 and looked at those who dispassionately analyzed the mathematics of what was going on with a sneer.  I knew it would come to exactly what is happening now, because it had to.  We should have taken our medicine in 2000, but refused.  We had another opportunity to do it in 2007, contracting government by 25%.  We refused.

Now we must slash government – today – by 50% – into a WORSE economic downturn, in the context of unemployment and declining standards of living, than we had in 2007.

If we don’t do it?

In another couple of years we will lose the ability to choose as the required contraction will be an effective 100%, at which point we will become Greece.

We blew it America, and while there’s still time we must admit the truth and do what we can – not what we want to do, but what we can do – to stop adding to our compounding of the damage.

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