As global equity markets gap downward the trading day after I suggested Watch The Pandemic Bank Flu Spread, can kicking will get progressively harder from this point on. As I have said in my many interviews, the only way out of this is debt destruction, which will crush big European banks leveraged up on debt marked at par of close enough to it.
Having made clear that default was the only way out, Iceland has once again proven me correct. And just to jog the memory, I made it clear that default was the only way out nearly two years ago…
Online Spreadsheets (professional and institutional subscribers only)
- Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis
- Greek Default Restructuring Scenario Analysiswith Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts
- Portugal’s Debt Ridden Finances: An Analysis of Haircuts, Restructuring and Strategy – Professional Analysis
- The Spain Sovereign Debt Haircut Analysis for Professional/Institutional Subscribers
- Ireland Default Restructuring Scenario Analysis with Sustainable Debt/GDP Limits and Haircuts
Bloomberg reports: Iceland May Hold Krona Auctions Within Weeks
The island, whose banks defaulted on $85 billion in 2008, is moving into the final stages of its resurrection plan as the last vestiges of crisis management are gradually removed. Iceland’s decision, taken together with the International Monetary Fund, to impose capital controls three years ago was key to surviving the bleakest moments of the crisis and helped prevent an all-out run on the island’s assets, Gudmundsson said.
“Without the capital controls it would have been much more difficult to ensure stability in the exchange rate, calling for much higher interest rates and an inability to shelter the domestic economy as well as we did,” he said. “With the turbulence in the international markets lately, the capital controls have sheltered Iceland considerably, since there’s no way of doing a run on the financing of the Icelandic state or the financing of the Icelandic banks.”
It is clear that capital controls are coming to the EU, and I’m sure there already in place in some form or fashion. It is quite ironic how the so-called “in the know” pundits alleged that Iceland would be osctrazied from the captial markets for defaulting when they are the ones actually
returning to the markets as the TPTB in the EU are being shunned. Just default already and get it over with, or you just may find yourself working for an Icelandic boss momentarily… You can try to save all of your banks and end up saving no banks at all, or you can go the logical route – the route that Iceland democratically allowed their populace to choose, which also so happened to be the right way. Hmmm… Democaracy! Capitalism! We just don’t seem to be seeing those concepts in the Euro area much these days…
Outperforming Euro Area
Iceland’s economy will grow faster than the euro-area average this year and next, the IMF estimated in September. The cost of insuring against an Icelandic default, using credit default swaps, is lower than the average for the euro area.
Iceland’s economy will grow 2.5 percent this year and next, versus 1.6 percent in the euro area this year and 1.1 percent in 2012, the IMF said Sept. 20. Next year, Iceland’s current account surplus will widen to 3.2 percent of the economy and unemployment will be 6 percent, versus 9.9 percent joblessness in the euro area, the fund said.
The stabilization of the island’s economy has allowed the central bank to press ahead with capital liberalizations that the government estimates won’t be fully dropped until 2013. The approach allows foreign investors eager to offload their krona holdings to transfer them to foreign or local investors willing to commit long-term to the island, according to the central bank.
‘Nuff said. Now, on to my other premonitions, predilections and predictions for which my subscribers pay me so dearly for… CNBC reports Moody’s Warns On French Rating Outlook
A rise in interest rates on French government debt and weaker growth prospects could be negative for the outlook on France’s credit rating, Moody’s warned in a report on Monday, adding to pressure on European debt markets.
Worries that France has the weakest economic fundamentals among the euro’s six AAA-rated countries have drawn the euro zone’s second largest economy into the firing line in the debt crisis this month.
The rating agency said the deteriorating market climate was a threat to the country’s credit outlook, though not at this stage to its actual rating.
“Elevated borrowing costs persisting for an extended period would amplify the fiscal challenges the French government faces amid a deteriorating growth outlook, with negative credit implications,” Senior Credit Officer Alexander Kockerbeck said in Moody’s Weekly Credit Outlook dated Nov.21.
“As we noted in recent publications, the deterioration in debt metrics and the potential for further liabilities to emerge are exerting pressure on France’s creditworthiness and the stable outlook (though not at this stage the level) of the government’s Aaa debt rating,” the Moody’s note read.
The yield differential between French and German 10-year government bonds rose above 200 basis points last week, a new euro-era high.
Moody’s said that at that spread level, France pays nearly twice as much as Germany for long-term funding, adding that a 100 basis point increase in yields roughly equates to an additional three billion euros in yearly funding costs.
In early Monday trade, the French 10-year spread was up about 20 basis points at 167 bps following publication of Moody’s report but remained well short of the 202 bps hit last week.
The CAC 40 index, which was down 1.7 percent in opening trade, was down 2.2 percent after an hour of trade.
“With the government’s forecast for real GDP growth of a mere one percent in 2012, a higher interest burden will make achieving targeted fiscal deficit reduction more difficult,” Moody’s said.
On Oct 17, Moody’s said it could place France on negative outlook in the next three months if the costs for helping to bail out banks and other euro zone members overstretched its budget.
“The French social model cannot be financed if the French economy’s potential is not preserved.
The stress on banks’ balance sheets can lead to further increases of liabilities on the government’s balance sheet when further state support to banks is needed, it added.
The events are unfolding like clockwork. Just go back a few months – or a year – or two years – in the BoomBustBlog archives for the Eurozone topic…