GDP: Oops, We Lied!

Wow, now we have “more complete” data…. and of course the revisions always go the same way…

The “second” estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.5 percentage point, or $15.0 billion, lower than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting downward revisions to private inventory investment, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports.

In other words we were entirely too optimistic in pretty much all the things that mattered.

This should not surprise, of course….. just like we see the same pattern with the jobless claims every week that are virtually always “revised up” later on, making the current week report look better.

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