In the week ending November 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 390,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 400,000. The 4-week moving average was 400,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 405,250.
Yeah, ok. Let’s see what the revisions are next week.
The “big table” from the 15th (it’s a bit more lagged) shows a +51,990 print however, with all of it coming from EUC and Extended benefit roll-ins. The rate of regular claims, which has been declining, has now stabilized — it is not dropping any more. This is bad if it continues and a 390k print is not consistent with job growth. The best you can say is that we continue to see what we have seen in the employment rate table — there’s no improvement happening at all; rather, we’re just rattling around on the floor.