FedUpUSA

Archive for January 10th, 2012

Contemplate this chart a bit.

This shows you what the stock market (S&P 500) did, along with the expansion in both GDP and debt (leverage) during that time.  The debt expansion was a geometric series from roughly 1990 forward until it hit the wall in 2007.

It may not be intuitively obvious when you look at that chart, but this is what was happening.  The data is a bit “noisy” as the granularity is quarterly, and of course there are small recessions and such in there, but on balance this entire “expansion” was in fact false — during this entire period, from 1980 forward until the crash, we did not have one three month period where economic growth occurred at a faster gross dollar amount than did new debt.

To make it easier to see, I took the data and slightly rearranged it.  This is what the data looks like if you take a five year average for both GDP expansion and debt growth, starting with the period ending in the 4th quarter of 1977 and progressing forward in 5 year increments until the end of 2007.

This is the average quarterly growth in debt and GDP during each of those five year periods, and is exactly what happens every single time you try to run two compound growth functions (in this case, GDP and Debt) over a period of time — the larger growing one always runs away from the slower.

The next point in that series is some $950 billion dollars in new debt per quarter, or roughly $3.8 trillion per year.

The Federal Government has been adding more than $1.2 trillion in new debt per year in an attempt to prevent recognition of the ponzi-style debt bubble that it, our Federal Reserve and our commercial banks all conspired to blow in the economy.  The same Ponzi Scheme, run by a private enterprise (e.g. Madoff) will and does result in long prison sentences.

It is not going to work folks; the $1.2 trillion that our government is taking on is one quarter of what would be necessary on average for the next five years, and for the five following that we’d need to double it again, to more than $7.5 trillion annually.

The Ponzi Scheme has run into the wall.  We, as Americans, the people of Europe, and our respective governments have only two choices:

1. Face reality and cut back government spending to that which we can tax, allowing the credit bubble to deflate entirely.  This will produce a massive but short-term economic contraction back to sustainable levels.
2. Continue to refuse to accept reality and as the futile and ever-larger attempts to prop up that which cannot be propped up are continually attempted and fail the percentage of contraction that we must withstand both in government and the economy will, as a matter of mathematical inevitability, grow larger each and every day until both economies and governments collapse.

This is the beginning and end of it folks.

There are no other options.

The Market-Ticker

Discussion (registration required to post)

Depending on Central State/central bank borrowing and spending to prop up the Status Quo is a doomed strategy.

I think the thread between these three seemingly disparate stories is clearly visible.I am indebted to longtime correspondent Joel M. for sending me these articles:

A Dimly Flickering Light in a Darkened Downtown. An Ohio mill town’s once-bustling main street is now a ghost town; people are desperate to sell their family heirlooms to one of the downtown’s few remaining businesses, a vintage shop, to raise cash.

A Fight for Post Offices and Towns’ Souls. Even as the number of family farms rises for the first time in decades in the U.S., long-standing services to rural communities such as post offices and schools are being slashed.

With Work Scarce in Athens, Greeks Go Back to the Land. As Greece’s economy plunges and unemployment rises, many Greeks are fleeing to the countryside and looking to the nation’s rich agricultural past as a guide to the future.

The thread that connects these stories is the devolution of centralized concentrations of control and the power of localism to fill the void.

As I have often noted here, the expansive Central State is on an S-curve of decline, and this is most apparent in places such as Greece that cannot print a couple trillion dollars a year to fund a bloated Status Quo like the U.S. can (at least for now).

But the Central State is on an S-curve even in nations such as the U.S. and “socialist” France, where rural post offices are also being closed or their hours drastically slashed for budgetary reasons.

Though few believe it possible, Wal-Mart is also on an S-Curve of decline; right now it has topped out, roughly comparable to the centralized corporations that owned and operated the mills in the 1960s. Though these conglomerates seemed eternal, beneath the surface they were already in decline.  So it is with the Wal-Mart model of centralized distribution of goods sourced via long global supply chains.  The decline just isn’t visible yet.

It is instructive to consider how the tiny village in the south of France where my brother lives is responding to the closure of rural services and the devolution of centralized funding.  The village has actively constructed subsidized housing on village-owned land to attract young families with children so the village school and post office won’t be closed.

Those who depend on a strategy of pleading with central authorities to continue funding at old levels are doomed to disappointment–all systems follow an S-Curve of rapid expansion, stasis and decline. The Central State is no different.

The solution is localism.  By creating cheap housing with its own modest tax resources, then the village attracts young families, whose children will keep the village school from closing, and the commerce brought to the village and its post office will keep it above the “closure” threshold.

Passively hoping that centralized concentrations of wealth and power will return to pre-eminence is a losing strategy, the equivalent of a cargo cult ritualistically hoping for a return to World War II-era bounty. Focusing local resources on obvious bootstrap solutions is the winning strategy, not just in the U.S. but globally.

That old mill town could do worse than to gather its resolve and institute a tax on all retail stores with more than 50,000 square feet of sales area. That would levy a special tax on one retailer, Wal-Mart.  As long as the tax was modest, Wal-Mart would resist and threaten but it would be highly unlikely to close a profitable store.

Then the town could use that revenue  to begin condemning all those empty buildings downtown via eminent domain and leasing them out for $1 a year to entrepreneurs. With no prospect of tenants, the buildings are essentially worth zero, so the owners would be lucky to get any sum. Most of the businesses would fail, as do most small businesses, but with nothing to lose, why not trust to capitalist energy and experimentation?  Maybe something good would start happening as creative juices were given a chance to flow. Something would be much better than nothing.

When the devolution of the Central State and central bank (and indeed, all centralized concentrations of wealth and power) picks up speed, as it has in Greece, then people migrate back to where localist solutions are possible.

Breaking the mindset that Central State subsidies is the solution to every problem is difficult, but as reality intrudes then clinging to broken models of the past is not the way forward.

In many minds, Greece is a failed state and the U.S. is successful. To my mind, Greece is a state in a positive transition to dealing with reality, and it is the U.S. which is the failed state, borrowing and blowing 10% of its entire GDP each and every year to fund its bloated, corrupt Status Quo ($1.5 trillion in Federal borrowing annually, plus state and county borrowing and corporate/consumer borrowing).

Failed states depend on endlessly rising debt to prop up their bloated, corrupt Status Quo. That no longer described Greece, but it still describes the U.S.

Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds

Hell has frozen over.

These columns have defended the independence of the Federal Reserve from attacks on the right and left, but after last week the central bank is on its own. It’s impossible to defend the Fed’s rank electioneering as it lobbies for more political and taxpayer intervention in the housing market—just in time for the election campaign.

This extraordinary political intrusion came in the form of a 26-page paper that the Fed sent to Capitol Hill last Wednesday, without invitation, graciously offering what Chairman Ben Bernanke called a “framework” for “thinking about certain issues and tradeoffs.” He was underselling his document. The paper is a clear attempt to provide intellectual cover for politicians to spend more taxpayer money to support housing prices.

I didn’t Ticker that paper originally as it was simply too outrageous to bother with.  There’s a point at which The Fed’s actions reach into the realm of rank politicking and attempts to protect their “chosen many” from their own foibles; we’ve certainly seen plenty of games played in the last three years.

But this paper, sent to Congress unsolicited, apparently went too far for even the Journal’s bankster-crank-stroking reflexes.  Among other things it said:

In this report, we provide a framework for thinking about directions policymakers might take to help the housing market. Our goal is not to provide a detailed blueprint, but rather to outline issues and tradeoffs that policymakers might consider. We caution, however, that although policy action in these areas could facilitate the recovery of the housing market, economic losses will remain, and these losses must ultimately be allocated among homeowners, lenders, guarantors, investors, and taxpayers.

This is where the problem is, of course.  Where does the government get the right to “allocate losses” through interventions?  The dirty little secret about the housing mess is that:

• The Fed was largely complicit in causing the housing bubble.  In fact, Greenspan intentionally stoked this speculative orgy and further, both he and Bernanke intentionally averted their eyes from the monstrous credit expansion that “maintained” economic output and which was utterly unsustainable — a mathematical fact that was obvious to anyone who bothered to look at the very data The Fed maintains!  In other words The Fed is now trying to find ways to evade responsibility for what it did.
• The losses are real but being hidden by further Fed actions!  Just one example is the hundreds of billions of dollars of second lines (Home Equity and “Silent Second” mortgages) that are behind underwater, non-performing first line mortgages.  These have an actual net present value in a foreclosure of zero, as they’re not entitled to one penny of recovery until every dollar of the first is satisfied, and the first is underwater and thus will not be fully recovered.  All of our large banks have monstrous exposures in this regard — almost none of these loans were securitized and thus they are all sitting on bank balance sheets, most at nearly 100 cents on the dollar.  These accounting values are fictions.

The reason that The Fed and our Government are desperate to hide these losses, praying for a miracle to somehow keep them from being recognized, is quite simple — these long-duration investments are typically held by insurance companies and pension funds.  Recognition of these losses will cause the allegedly “healthy” firms and funds that hold this paper to be shown to be severely impaired or worse.

Yet there is no evading these losses.  I’ve been pounding the table on these issues for five years and yet the alleged “extend and pretend” game has not led to value recovery.  Instead, the value of homes has continued to decline!  At some point the games end as these notes mature and an actual accounting must be made.  The idea that The Fed would propose that “taxpayers” eat these embedded losses is both an outrage and a circular argument — do you really care if you have your taxes raised to the point that you go bankrupt or you lose your pension and go bankrupt?  Either way you’re bust!

The only solution is to accept that which we cannot change.  Bad loans create losses when the loans are made and nothing can be done about that later on.  You can change who eats the loss, but when it all devolves back down to the public then which hand you pick someone’s pocket with makes no difference at all.

The more important issue here is holding those at The Fed personally and professionally accountable for this massive cock-up.  There is a long history of intentional evasion of the law, including Alan Greenspan’s “approval” of the blatantly-unlawful Citi/Travelers merger that was later made retroactively legal by Gramm-Leach-Bliley and evasion of reserve requirements with sweeps.  These sorts of machinations are nothing more than allowing a gambler to double down on a lost bet, and when one looks at the history of leverage in the financial markets and The Fed’s active and outrageous actions in this regard, given their charter which mandates that they control credit aggregates, it is clearly time to stick a fork in these mendacious bastards and remove the Board of Governors wholesale.

“Sometimes the ‘people’ are right.”

Anonymous leader

******

“There are two kinds of outrage:

The anger of the disappointed spoiled;

The authentic moral wrath of the common people betrayed.”

Anonymous sage

Permit me to sketch some real-world political context.

America has evolved two cooperating political elites, each of which runs one of the two parties and shares three common traits: (1) high education levels, (2) important wealth (3) a distrust of the populist vote bordering on fear.  Winning elections for each requires a periodic courting ritual during which the populist vote (on which success depends) is earnestly sought, followed by a measure of post-election betrayal. Well before the 2008 credit-bubble crash and the advent of the Tea Party movement, I noticed the growing populist pressure.

“Populism in this usage represents the politically relevant precepts, attitudes and core positions that distinguish an enduring majority of adults from the political elites that depend on their approval.”

For decades, the corporate country club conservatives and the Lexus limousine liberals succeeded in achieving a rough division of the populist center: social populists on one side, economic populists on the other.

That situation was mutating well before the 2008 real estate credit bubble burst.  Just before that calamity, I wrote the following (in an analysis of developments in American populism):

“While I still believe that a legitimate populist movement can accommodate local custom (when popular sentiment clearly differs from the mainstream, thinking of the accommodations for gay marriage in Vermont for example), I also believe that there can be no accommodation for the anti-democratic reversal of the popular will in the rest of the country in this important area of life, especially by judicial fiat.  When judges, for example, abuse their trust by overriding the popular will, especially on essential ‘family values’ issues, a populist rebellion is virtually inevitable.

Politics is a game played among four players, each representing one mindset.

The game is about power, challenges to boundaries, and the reallocation of other people’s money & property.

1. For typical liberal minds, boundaries are obstacles to be eliminated, including the boundary between “mine” and “yours”.
2. For typical conservative minds, boundaries are bulwarks to be defended, including the boundary between “my kind of people” and the “unwashed”.

[Liberals and conservatives share a great deal more than they are willing to admit.]

1. For centrist minds, boundaries are threats to a delicate balance and boundary relaxations are always preferable to conflict.
2. The reasonable minds, the rarest of all, are equally wary of the toxicity of the ideologues and the weakness of many centrists whose tendency to conflict avoidance undercuts courage and principle when both are most needed.

People endowed with common sense agree that “extreme” ideologies[5] are harmful, yet many of them tend to ignore the extremism of the ideologues who claim to share the same general socio-political vision. But the difference is not just one of degree, as in intensity or passion. When actually adopted, all ideologies operate as powerful reality filters, screening out or distorting every inconvenient data set or challenging point of view that cannot be accommodated to the “correct” view. In a sinister operational sense, the extreme ideologies work like mind-worms, feeding on the vulnerable, substituting a secular catechism for critical thinking. The vulnerable groups include those closest to a particular ideology in the spectrum of belief, the rootless ones searching for “meaning and purpose” and all the post-modern thinkers who have abandoned their allegiance to the core moral order. They were Lenin’s “useful idiots”.  I like the term “unwitting prey” or even “pets”.

At this juncture in history, the most toxic ideologically saturated minds are still found among the progeny of the two malign ideologies of the last century:  Marxism and National Socialism. The beliefs of Lenin survive in the guise of bureaucratic egalitarianism and those of Hitler survive as population eugenics. The true believer ideologues[6] dance on a scary precipice, unaware of the yawning abyss, one foot-slip away.[7]  History taught in the classic manner, with fidelity to the past, sans ideological filters, is a powerful vaccine against the toxic infectious ideologies. We can hope that such classic history will once again be widely taught.

Each of the four archetypal mindsets (liberal, conservative, centrist and reasonable) is “onto something”. They are not ideologues – these mindsets are traditional styles of rational thought and communication. Each is a gift to us conveying some essential part of the big picture. Each has had its day and will again. No culture can afford to ignore or marginalize a single one of them, except at a steep cost, because each mindset is part of the civilized historical tradition.

No society without liberal, conservative and centrist minds – all of whom are in a mutual dialogue mediated by the reasonable minds – can avoid the “bubble trap”. The real world abhors a bubble.  Those who insist in living in one will eventually find themselves in an unchecked downward slide. The slope is steep and the momentum of the fall is constantly accelerating. The reasonable minds among us are the first to notice the pending disaster, but only an aroused population can stop it.

“Not my problem”, you say? No part of a human society falls over the precipice without taking others down with it. I believe that during times of great imbalance – like our present situation – we are in acute danger because the consequences of a major misstep will be unforgiving: We are permitted to briefly lose our balance, but we must quickly regain our footing or we will fall.  The precipice is always near, and it’s a very long way down.

Dialogue pierces bubbles and augments balance. At times like this, when political posturing and maneuvering trump dialogue, the abyss is much closer that we think.

About that Giant

Now, here is a secret. All this time a huge giant has been sleeping under our floor.

Go with the metaphor for a moment, and ask yourself: What would a dreaming giant dream?

HINT: The giant is us, the people, not the population, but that ancient virtual collective memory that holds the precious life lessons of our ancestors.  This is our giant, the keeper of our pains, joys, successes and failures – especially of our failures. The Sleeping Giant embodies our common wisdom, our common sense and our common morality.

When the players in the political game become too corrupt, too careless, too unbalanced and too arrogant, the center does not hold and things fall apart[8]. Eventually the noise from all those gnashing teeth awakens the Giant under the floor.  Meantime the Giant dreams of wisdom ignored.

Elites are typically out of touch. It is their nature, whether conservative, liberal or centrist.  They are disconnected by circumstance, out of touch almost by definition, and always distanced by the habits of comfortable neglect. In the Giant’s world, loyalty and trust trump ideology and one’s station in life – especially the ideological fads of the elites.  In the Giant’s world, loyalty and trust start with family and friends then radiate to neighborhoods, then to communities, and so on, ending at the borders of the country. Loyalty and trust are at the heart of the ancient moral code, the “Deep Torah[9] of humanity” if you will, the main precepts of which cannot forever be ignored by any people, including, especially, by the elites.

Our daily lives, the reality “on the ground”, shapes the alpha and omega of real life.  When we say that the elites are disconnected, this is what we mean they are disconnected from – and this is why they need to be watched at all times. But the common people are too busy living and struggling with daily life to keep up surveillance of the miscreant elites.

Among all the precepts and aphorisms of the ancient moral code, five themes sound in the Sleeping Giant’s dreams like thundering heartbeats:

1. Earning entitles one to keep its fruits – the harder the earning, the fiercer the keeping. This precept applies to all people regardless of their station. One does not initiate a general program of taking property from any group (i.e., without a fair individuated adjudication, such as reparations for theft) without threatening all groups. In the Giant’s world, the earnings of the common people the fruits of which are more precarious and therefore more precious, are to be carefully respected by the elites. Significant price inflation is a thinly disguised, elite-engendered theft of earnings.
2.  The common people and their children entitled to the same human dignity as the elites enjoy. In the Giant’s world, the common people must be every bit as well protected from predators (human, animal, institutional and inhuman) as are the elites and their children. For example, the specter of private security guards for the elites and underfunded, under-deployed police for the poor people is a violation of human dignity.  In the Giant’s world, the elites (who are functionally necessary, but not individually indispensable) will be “kept on” only so long as they honor the basic human dignity of the common people.
3.  Theft by a common person is stealing and should be punished. In the Giant’s world, there is no theft exemption for the elites. The “Deep Torah applies to all – ruler and ruled, powerful and powerless.  Yet theft by an elite person is sometimes a mere “resource reallocation”, until the crime is discovered, when it may be called “misappropriation.” In the Giant’s world, elites do not steal from the common people…even elected elites acting under color of law.
4.  Trust is the baseline commitment of the social order and individual relationships.  When elites disparage the family ties, the loyalty and trust relationships and arrangements of the common people, the foundation of general trust is damaged. Elites do not break trust with the common people nor publically undermine its value by disregarding it among themselves, except at their great peril. They do not debase the Deep Torah by adopting a separate moral standard for themselves.  Not without deeply angering the awakened Giant.
5.  Beware when the trust with the common people is finally broken: Then, even the most benevolent gestures of the elites become traps – hungry tigers are then considered safer company. In the Giant’s world, the elites do not trick the common people.

Our current elites include some very clever types who value their personal status over anything else.  Some of these clever ones actually fear the Giant, but they have a plan to lull it into sleep.  These elites have kept a subset of “the population” as pets.  These human pets enjoy a very limited capacity for independent thought and action, because they have been conditioned to dependency, and they live on highly filtered information[10].  These pets can be easily manipulated and even teased into a state of faux rebellion.  Occasional pet outbreaks are arranged or exploited[11] to create conditions that will allow the elites to reestablish themselves by changing costumes.

This is why mobs of noisome pets should not be confused with a Sleeping Giant Awakening.  Two distinct things must not be confused: The anger of the disappointed spoiled and the authentic moral wrath of the common people betrayed. Those unruly pets sleeping in tents in the public square are an intended distraction.  Moral outrage grounded in the Deep Torah will always trump ordinary discontent.

The awakened Giant is the real deal. But how can we tell the difference? How will we know when the Sleeping Giant has awakened?  Listen closely for a critical the voices cohering around five themes: (a) keeping earnings; (b) being kept safe from predators; (c) holding thieves accountable, no matter their status; (c) honoring trust relationships; (d) rejecting the falsely benevolent gestures. This is the growl of the “Deep Torah”. It is the authentic voice of the people that, when aroused, exhibits a sudden moral coherence and unmistakable power.

You may have noticed that the Giant is stirring. It may soon be fully awake. I leave it to the reader to decode the signs, both false and true.

Timing is everything.

A fully awakened, angry giant is a very blunt instrument indeed.  This is why populist rebellions tend not to end well, even for the common people who first cheered the “protesters”, only to discover, too late, that a new set of elites had been using them as unwitting foot soldiers all along.

There is a strategy for the survival of the good people and good institutions, the constitution of this Republic and the prospect of an American renewal during an Awakened Giant Event.

The strategy is grounded in five simple rules, easy to outline, but difficult to implement….

Rule One: The ideologues cannot be trusted.

Rule Two: Listen closely for the ancient moral message (see above).  The more quickly that message is heeded, the sooner the Giant will go back to sleep

Rule Three: When things go seriously awry, the voices of practical and moral authenticity will not diverge.  So beware those who are still trying to trick the people – even – or especially- in a “good cause.” Beware those who want to “break some eggs” to make an omelet when they really mean break some heads to make a revolution. And shun those who want to destroy human dignity and freedom to make “a better world”, because the really mean “a bigger kennel.”

Rule Four: The Sleeping Giant is us.

Rule Five:  Victory goes to the most self-disciplined, morally rooted (think deep Torah here) and determined candidates, parties and movements.

How awake are you?

Copyright © 2011 by Jay B Gaskill, Attorney at Law, All rights Reserved

Forwards and links are welcome.  For other permissions, contact the author via e-mail law@jaygaskill.com

The author is a California Attorney and the creator and administrator of The Policy Think Site www.jaygaskill.com and the linked blogs.

I guess Christmas was the season of stupidity, eh?

Consumer borrowing (CICRTOT) in the U.S. surged in November by the most in 10 years, showing households are optimistic enough to take on debt and banks are willing to lend.

Credit increased by $20.4 billion, the biggest jump since November 2001, to $2.48 trillion, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. The advance was almost twice as big as the highest forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

That’s a pretty big move.  Let’s look at the rate-of-change graphs:

So on a rate-of-change basis revolving is back to the zero line, while non-revolving remains moving “nicely.”   Ex-student-loans the rate of change is improving, but still negative — barely.

How about on an outstanding basis?

Ah.  Nice divergence there.  Yes, there was an uptick in the revolving and non-revolving ex-fed-gov basis, but the big mover – again — is student loans.  Their volume grew by 1.58% in one month, a compounded annualized rate of change of nearly 21% (!!)  To put this in perspective the monthly change on all non-revolving credit was 0.89% on the month (11.2% annualized) while revolving credit increased at 0.71% monthly (8.8% annualized.)

In gross amount terms $5.6 billion went on spastic plastic in what looks like either Christmas shopping or (and it better not be this) desperate consumers charging their groceries.

The total non-revolving increased $14.8 billion but of that $6.5 billion was student loans — nearly a majority — continuing the financial rape of our youth.  Our youth continue to be the “next bubble attempt” victims, larding up the debt upon their shoulders with obligations growing at roughly double the rate of all non-revolving debt and more than double that of credit card obligations.

If you’re a parent and a part of this you deserve to have the door slammed in your face and bolted by your now-adult kids when, not if, Medicare collapses, your job is lost, and you look to your progeny for a way to avoid living under a freeway overpass.

Incidentally, that day is coming sooner than you think.

The Market-Ticker

Discussion below (registration required to post)

How should people prepare for the difficult years that are coming?  I get asked about that a lot.  Once people really examine the facts, it is not too hard to convince them that an economic collapse is coming.  But once they accept that reality, most of them want to know what they can do to prepare themselves and their families for the hard times that are ahead.  Well, the truth is that it does not have to be complicated.  Many of the things discussed throughout this article are things that most of us should be doing anyway.  Now is not the time to be splurging on luxuries or expensive vacations.  Now is not the time to be going into large amounts of debt.  Instead, we all need to get back to the basics and we all need to do what we can to become more independent of the system.  Just remember what happened back in 2008.  Millions of Americans lost their jobs and millions of Americans lost their homes.  Now experts all over the globe are warning that another great financial crisis that could be just as bad as 2008 (or even worse) is coming.  Those that don’t take the time to prepare this time are not going to have any excuse.

But there is also a lot of sensationalism out there.  There are some people out there that claim that the economy is going to collapse all at once and that we are going to go from where we are now to some type of a post-apocalyptic “Mad Max” society almost overnight.

Well, that is just not going to happen.  We are not going to wake up next week in a world where we are all fighting each other with sharp pointed sticks.

Just like anything else, an economic collapse takes time.  I like to describe what is happening using an analogy from the beach.  When you build a mighty sand castle, it is not totally destroyed by the first wave that comes along, right?

Well, it is the same thing with the U.S. economy.  It was the greatest economic machine that the world has ever seen, and it is most definitely in decline.  But there are stages to that decline.

The “wave” that came along in 2008 did a huge amount of damage.  Our economy has not recovered from that.

Now another wave is coming.  But that will not be the end.  There will be other waves after that.

Eventually, this thing is coming all the way down.  Someday America will be such a horror show that it will be hard to believe that it is the same place that many of us grew up in.

But in the short-term, we are going to be facing a major league recession and millions of Americans will lose their jobs.  It won’t be the end of the world, but for some people it may feel like it.

So when you are talking about “how to prepare”, the truth is that it depends on what kind of time frame you are talking about.

In the long-term, a lot of the things that even the hardcore survivalists are doing will not be nearly enough.

In the short-term, there are things that all of us can do to weather the coming storm….

Get Out Of Debt

The global financial system is headed for a massive crisis.  Just like in 2008, a lot of people are going to lose their jobs and a lot of people are going to lose their homes.

In such an environment, it makes sense to travel as “lightly” as possible.

That means getting rid of debt.

Some forms of debt are worse than others.  Mortgage debt is not that bad.  We all need somewhere to live, and not all of us can run out and immediately pay off our mortgages.

But there are other forms of debt that are absolutely toxic.  A good example of this is credit card debt.  There are very few things that are as good at bleeding your finances as credit card debt is.  For example, according to the credit card repayment calculator, if you have a $6000 balance on a credit card with a 20 percent interest rate and only pay the minimum payment each time, it will take you 54 years to pay off that credit card.

During those 54 years you will pay $26,168 in interest rate charges on that credit card balance in addition to the $6000 in principal that you are required to pay back.  That is before any fees or penalties are even calculated.

But a lot of Americans still have not learned to stay away from credit card debt.  In fact, one out of every seven Americans has at least 10 credit cards.

Ouch.

The truth is that in future years there is a good chance that you may be facing a situation where you are not making as much income, so you want to try to start reducing your expenses right now.  Getting out of debt will help you to do this.

Save Money

A shockingly high number of American families are operating without any kind of financial cushion whatsoever….

-According to a Harris Interactive survey taken in 2010, 77 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

-According to one recent survey, one out of every three Americans would not be able to make a mortgage or rent payment next month if they suddenly lost their current job.

This is one reason why so many Americans have lost their homes and why so many Americans have fallen below the poverty level in recent years.  They simply had no cushion.

Last year, 2.6 million more Americans dropped into poverty.  That was the largest increase that we have seen since the U.S. government began keeping statistics on this back in 1959.

Don’t let this happen to you.  At a minimum, everyone out there should have a cushion that will cover at least 6 months worth of expenses.  Preferably, you should have a cushion that will last you at least a year.

Yes, I know that is a tall order.  But you would be amazed at how much money the average American family wastes in a typical month.  Almost all of us have areas where we can cut back.

Trust me, in the middle of a major recession you will be really glad that you are sitting on a pile of savings.

Get Independent Of The System

What would you do if you lost your job tomorrow?

Would you have any other income?

How long would it be before you lost your home?

Those are very important questions.

The truth is that the system is failing and so we all need to work hard to become more independent of the system.

So what does that mean?

Well, instead of relying on someone else to employ you indefinitely, you can start up a business in your spare time.  Yes, it will cut into your television time, but if someday you lose your job you will be extremely happy that you still have some income coming in.

Another way of becoming more independent is to start a garden.

Yes, you can run down the street and buy giant piles of cheap food right now, but that will not be the case forever.

Store Food And Focus On The Essentials

I might get into a little trouble for saying this, but the truth is that there is not going to be a major famine in America in 2012.

However, that does not mean that you should not be storing food and other essentials.

In the old days, our grandparents always saved up food.  It was just a natural thing for them to do.  This was especially the case if they lived through the Great Depression.

When hard times come, you will be glad that you have food stored up.  Plus, food is never going to be cheaper than it is today.  Having food stored up is a great hedge against the rising food prices that we will see in the future.

No, we are not going to see hyperinflation by the end of the year like many of the sensationalists are warning.  But someday you will be really glad that you stored up food for yourself and your family.

We live in a world that is becoming more unstable with each passing month.  You never know when the next natural disaster, pandemic, war or national emergency will strike.

It only makes sense to store food and other basic essentials that you will need in the future.

In a previous article entitled “20 Things You Will Need To Survive When The Economy Collapses And The Next Great Depression Begins”, I listed 20 of the things that you would need in the event of a major disaster, a national emergency or a total economic collapse.  These are things that you are going to want to make sure that you have ready right now, because after the crisis begins it may be too late to prepare….

#1) Storable Food

#2) Clean Water

#3) Shelter

#4) Warm Clothing

#5) An Axe

#6) Lighters Or Matches

#7) Hiking Boots Or Comfortable Shoes

#8) A Flashlight And/Or Lantern

#9) A Radio

#10) Communication Equipment

#11) A Swiss Army Knife

#12) Personal Hygiene Items

#13) A First Aid Kit And Other Medical Supplies

#14) Extra Gasoline (But Be Very Careful How You Store It)

#15) A Sewing Kit

#16) Self-Defense Equipment

#17) A Compass

#18) A Hiking Backpack

#19) A Community

#20) A Backup Plan

In the comments to that article, the readers suggested the following additional items….

A K-Bar Fighting Knife

Salt

Extra Batteries

Medicine

A Camp Stove

Propane

Pet Food

Heirloom Seeds

Tools

An LED Headlamp

Candles

Clorox

Calcium Hypochlorite

Ziplock Bags

Maps Of Your Area

Binoculars

Sleeping Bags

Rifle For Hunting

Extra Socks

Gloves

Gold And Silver Coins For Bartering

Once again, a lot of these things are not going to be needed right away.  The economy is going to go through a lot more ups and downs before it totally dies.

In the short-term, keep an eye on the European debt crisis, the Japanese debt crisis and the U.S. debt crisis.  There are a lot of similarities between what happened back in 2008 and what is happening now.

And what happened following the crisis of 2008?

Unemployment shot through the roof.

So be prepared for that.

Make a plan for how you and your family will survive if you end up unemployed.

Also, when it comes to “how to prepare”, there is one aspect that is often overlooked.

During the difficult years ahead, we are all going to have to be mentally and spiritually tough.

It won’t matter how good your physical and financial preparations are if you are cowardly and paralyzed by fear.

The times that are coming are going to test all of our hearts.

Some people are going to make it and some people aren’t.

Some people will become so consumed with fear that they will give up completely.

Don’t let that happen to you.

Prepare your heart, soul, mind and body right now for what is coming.  For those that are cowardly the years ahead will be a total nightmare, but for those that overcome the fear the years ahead have the potential to be a great adventure.

The Economic Collapse