How It Begins


A trip down memory lane folks….

How long did you have when that warning was given to you?

About 2 weeks.

And how many warnings have you had recently?



Three…. (yeah, I know, that one might be “special”)

There’s plenty more that are in “slower” declines toward zero.  FSLR anyone?

Oh sure, you’re welcome to believe “that won’t happen again.”  Just like you did in 2008, when the warnings came in 2007 and early in the 08 time frame — Bear Stearns (twice!) anyone?

In 2000 the market sauntered higher for a couple of weeks, then broke.

In 2008 there were a few months before it all came apart.

But we’re seeing an increasing number of firms that either miss a little or just don’t beat like they “should”, or worse someone raises an “accounting question” and boom — down they go.

MSTR back in the day did exactly that.  It was a take-over target one day, and had an “accounting issue” the next.

Two weeks later the entire market blew up.

I remember it well — I was sitting in the Sandestin Hilton with my kid, down here in Niceville home shopping, when the roll really got started at the end of March.  And I remember well the “miraculous” recovery on April 2nd after the NDX had been down some 600 handles.

If you bought that “oh it’s ok” move you were satiated for exactly three days — until the end of the week.

The following Monday was an outside reversal and from there nine hundred NDX points came off during that week.

But don’t worry folks, that rumbling isn’t a volcano.

The smoke is nothing to worry about.


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