China Headed For The Ditch


Those who think that we’re going to “muddle through” have another think coming…

China’s export growth collapsed and imports and new yuan loans trailed estimates in July, reports today showed.

Outbound shipments increased 1 percent from a year earlier and imports rose 4.7 percent, the customs bureau said. The growth in July exports compared with the 8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and 11.3 percent in June. Analysts estimated a 7 percent gain in imports after a 6.3 percent increase in June.

That will be the end of that.

Let’s also remember that this is the time period where export shipments usually ramp up in expectation of the Christmas Season.  Goods in transit have to cross an ocean in a container ship, after which they go to warehouses and are stocked back for the holidays.

Flat exports during the month of July is extremely bad as this is the beginning of the ramp-up period that occurs every year.  This data strongly implies that orders have collapsed for the upcoming holiday season, which in turn means that the economy is going to flush as we come into the end of the year, pretty-much spot-on with what I have been expecting.

The data keeps piling up folks…. and import prices, reported this morning, are down to boot.

Discussion (registration required to post)