KABOOM! – Economic Data for 11/15/2012


Claims: KABOOM! 439k


In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for  seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 372,000.

This just plain sucks.

The DOL “says” this is all about Sandy.  I suspect that’s a part of it, but only a part of it.

This is a bad number and the market’s reaction was quite subdued, all things considered.  I suspect everyone’s blowing this off as a “storm related” thing and expectations are that there will be little or no downside that will persist.

I don’t think so.  I think part of it is Sandy, and the rest of it is not — the rest is all of the layoffs that were kegged up until after the election, then released in the last week.

If so then the claims numbers will remain elevated coming into the end of the year and it will not be long before the market has an all-on meltdown as it becomes apparent that the Fed’s QE games, which they claim are all about employment, are an utter failure and in fact Bernanke has simply been lying about the target of his so-called “programs.”

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Going Up

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The problem with this number is that core is now going up at 2%, which is the Fed’s “formal target.”  Further “accomodation” risks this becoming unhinged, at which point Bernanke has no more tools left in the box and the chainsaw starts cutting off heads.

The really bad news though is that food continues to rise at roughly double the so-called 2% target, and of course nobody need to buy food, right?

Big changes in the table this month are found in apparrel, car insurance (!!!) and airline fares.

Not a good report folks.

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Gloomy Empire State Building

Empire Index: Now We’re F*d

Time to hoist up the flag again….


The November 2012 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers declined at a modest pace. The general business conditions index was negative for a fourth consecutive month, but was little changed at -5.2. The new orders index rose above zero for the first time since June, although it was only slightly positive at 3.1. The shipments index shot up twenty one points to 14.6, its highest level since May. The prices paid index fell three points to 14.6, indicating a modest increase in input prices, and the prices received index held steady at 5.6. Labor market conditions were noticeably weaker. The index for number of employees fell fourteen points to -14.6, a sharp drop to its lowest level since 2009, and the average workweek index drifted down to -7.9.

That will be that.

Both employment and the hourly index were trashed; as this is a diffusion index the direction of change tells you whether conditions are improving or degrading, but the absolute value must be positive or the actual conditions are negative — that is, the change tells you the rate (accelerating or decelerating) but the sign tells you whether the month-over-month change is positive or negative at an absolute level.

New orders are just barely positive but the fact of the matter is that both employees and workweek have been on the decline for a good long while, with the trend deteriorating since July and the rate of change has become alarming in the negative direction when it comes to the number of people employed.

Remember, elections have consequences!

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