Economic growth will remain slow this year, CBO anticipates, as gradual improvement in many of the forces that drive the economy is offset by the effects of budgetary changes that are scheduled to occur under current law. After this year, economic growth will speed up, CBO projects, causing the unemployment rate to decline and inflation and interest rates to eventually rise from their current low levels. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate is expected to remain above 7½ percent through next year; if that happens, 2014 will be the sixth consecutive year with unemployment exceeding 7½ percent of the labor force—the longest such period in the past 70 years.
If the current laws that govern federal taxes and spending do not change, the budget deficit will shrink this year to $845 billion, or 5.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), its smallest size since 2008. In CBO’s baseline projections, deficits continue to shrink over the next few years, falling to 2.4 percent of GDP by 2015.
How is this organization’s track record?
Remember that in 2000 it was predicted that by 2010 there would be no federal debt at all.
What happened instead? Well gee, we seemed to have massively increased Federal Debt. Like by more than double.
It gets better. CBO believes that the deficit will go under 3% by 2015. May I ask how, given that borrowing costs are going up (since we’re borrowing more and more) and in addition consumer purchasing power is being trashed by Fed policy?
The CBO, for its part, does issue the following disclaimer:
Those projections are not CBO’s predictions of future outcomes. As specified in law, CBO’s baseline projections are constructed under the assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged, so that they can serve as a benchmark against which potential changes in law can be measured.
In other words CBO is required by the law to publish things it does not believe in.
That’s a surprise? Of course not. Congress does this all the time.
In addition CBO “projects” that federal revenues will rise by 25% over the next two years due to “a growing economy” (which it predicts will grow at a puny small single-digit rate!) from policy changes related to tax increases (but which of course will not impact behavior) and more. All of this is “projected” to increase revenues from 15.8% of GDP (today) to 19.1% of GDP in the next two years — a 21% increase as measured against GDP.
Pull the other one boys.
Oh, the CBO also projects that outlays (spending) will decrease as a percentage of GDP from 22.8% (today) to 21.5%. This, despite the outrageous rampjob that we’re seeing in places like health insurance, where many small business and individuals plans have already been notified that their premium expense will roughly double over the next two years.
And this won’t hit the government, either in medical spending or lower tax receipts — right?
Pull the other one boys.
In order for government, or the people, to make good policy you must first have good data to analyze. The willful and intentional abuse of statistical organizations such as the CBO through law that effectively commands them to produce lies is an outrage.
The CBO, as currently operated, is a farce.