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Today’s Economic Data

Economic Lies

CPI: Once Again, Into The Breach

I’d love to see how they explain this one, given what we know has happened with Brosurance premiums.

Remember, this is October, so the increases and cancellations had already started going out.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The decrease was due to a large fall in energy prices which is considered to be ~10% of household expenditures.  The monthly decline was 4%, which translates into enough to make the aggregate negative.

Ex food and energy the figure was +0.2%.

But here’s the lie factory at work once again:

Up only 1.9% on the year and down 0.4% on the month — never mind being only 0.659% of the family budget?

smiley

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Consumer Spending: Do You Believe It?

After finding out that Census made up some of the employment report feed data do you believe this report?  Because if you do October was a good month on a retail level.

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $428.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 3.9 percent (±0.7%) above October 2012. Total sales for the August through October 2013 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The August to September 2013 percent change was revised from -0.1 percent (±0.5%)* to virtually unchanged (±0.3%)*.

Hmmm….

Looking at the detailed data gasoline was pretty-much flat (and given the decrease in gas prices this translates in a material increase in gallons sold) and sporting goods were down — but everything else had a solid increase on an unadjusted basis.

Make of it what you will; the market liked it although the reaction was muted.

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But The Economy…

Once again Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) reports crap sales at the dealer level:

9:12AM Caterpillar reports October dealer statistics (Past 3-month dealer statistics) (CAT) 83.65 : Caterpillar reports October dealer statistics (Past 3-month dealer statistics) Retail Sales of Machines by marketing region for the 3-month rolling period compared with the same months of the prior year:

Asia Pacific -26%
EAME -14%
Latin America -8%
ROW -17%
North America -2%
World -12%

Power Systems Retail Statistics by business sector for the 3-month rolling period compared with the same months of the prior year:
Electrical Power -21%
Industrial +16%
Transportation -27%
Petroleum 0%
Total -9%

Yeah, this is all ok, right?

Uh…… no.  But don’t bother telling the computers that are ramming the market.

Remember that companies are under an obligation to tell the truth.  The government is free to lie and the HFT algos on the “stock exchanges” are free to publish bids and offers they have no intention of actually executing, despite the fact that under any reasonable reading of the law this is an unlawful practice.

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