FedUpUSA

Archive for the ‘Bubbles’ Category

It would be a good idea to become grounded in it folks, because it’s coming, and it’s not going to be fun if you’re not well-grounded in the facts.

Let’s take a few examples, some of them from the forum and some from my own personal experience, and flesh them out.

Take many if not most allegedly “middle-class” and “upper middle-class” business owners and managers.  They live in a nice 3,500 sq/ft house in the suburbs with a manicured lawn and the service that comes once a week.  Their home is immaculate and full of granite counter tops and Viking appliances.  There are two $50,000 automobiles in the driveway – and perhaps another one, or some sort of recreational vehicle (a boat or RV) in the garage or a nearby storage area.

Now look at how much actual wealth they have, on a balance-sheet basis.  Their home is likely underwater or has limited equity – 10 or 20% of the current market value at most.  Their vehicles are not owned outright, they all have notes on them.  There’s $100,000 or less in their retirement accounts, but they’re middle-aged – in their 40s.

On the spending side they have a $200/month cellphone bill for themselves and their kids ($2,400 a year), spend $300/month on utilities ($3,600 a year) and pay $5,000 or more in property taxes and hazard insurance.  Between these there’s more than $10,000 that goes out the front door, plus their income tax burden.  This family also eats out a couple of times a week ($200/month or $2,400 a year) and in general treats money and credit as though it’s something they have access to and thus will use.

This prototypical family manages to make it work predicated on being paid by the government for the use of leverage through the mortgage tax deduction.  This has induced them to (among other things) refinance serially, since as a loan amortizes the interest percentage drops and so does the tax write-off. To keep that “extra” $3,000 a year in deduction the family has buried itself in debt – intentionally – through serial refinances, while stripping every dime of equity they could get their hands on to spend on their lifestyle.  What they don’t admit to is that they’re simply pyramiding debt upon debt, goaded on by a tax system that has encouraged profligacy, immaturity and a mathematically-inevitable economic collapse.

As they head toward “retirement age” their children have gone off on their own.  They treated their kids as chattel during the time they were kids, smothering them and yet at the same time showering them with “things.”  A car at 16.  An extravagant prom experience.  Travel-team soccer at hundreds of dollars a month.  New clothes from the latest trendy place – several times a year.  A college that costs $20,000/year.  None of this was earned by Junior, it was “deserved” because the little darlings “should have the best.”

These people will argue, to the last man and woman, that they’ve done “everything right all their lives.”

They’re deluded, and if you’re reading this you’re probably one of them.

The fact is that the bubble that made possible the appearance of rapid accumulation of wealth was just that – a bubble.  It was a fraud.  This prototypical family, and the majority of Americans live like this even today, having learned nothing from the last few years,  is literally one disruption in the ability to put leverage upon leverage from a full-blown economic disaster.

But bubbles always pop.

Always.

It’s not a bubble eh?  Care to rethink that in light of this chart?

If you want to know where that came from, look right here:

When did the market start to take off?  Right after 1980, right when the government, industry and you set forth upon the path of borrowing more and more money to spend beyond your means, saving nothing, investing nothing.

This drove asset prices higher.  But this game must eventually end, because every dollar you borrow comes with interest, and eventually you are unable to borrow any more, since your borrowing has outrun your earnings capacity.

That’s what happened in 2007.  It is why all the games with QEx have failed – all they did was create more “excess reserves” that could be loaned out, but the economy’s ability to absorb more loans and pay more interest has been exceeded.

Pressing that bet further and further will not work.  It cannot work.

Now we’re in trouble, and lots of it.  We’re faced with the reality of what we’ve done because when that leverage comes out of the system and it will the market is likely to go right back where it started – or fairly close to it.  Contemplate that, and read the Ticker I posted yesterday, because that’s the macro economic impact of that leverage being removed.

But on a personal note the impact is going to suck too. In no particular order you might want to consider all of the following:

• Americans have levered themselves up to the gills.  Despite claims in the media, that leverage has not been taken down.  Think about yourself, your family, neighbors and friends. Would you be ok if you had no credit cards, in fact no credit of any sort, no government handouts and no job – for six months.  Very few families would be able to survive such a thing without ending up in the street, yet without that ability you have excessive financial leverage in your life.  You have not removed that leverage.  You had better start – now.  If you didn’t believe in the risk in 2007 when I started writing about this, the 2008/09 market collapse should have convinced you.  If that wasn’t enough this latest swoon should have underlined the point.  If neither of those two events has made clear what you must do – right now – then like it or not you deserve what’s going to happen to you, despite the fact that I’m sure I’ll get hate mail for saying it.
• Can you make it in “retirement” – by whatever means, including continuing to work, without government support?  If not, you’re not unlevered.  You’ve simply believed the lies told to you by the political establishment that it could lever itself up on an indefinite forward basis and give the benefits to you despite the fact that the demographics – that the Baby Boomers were going to retire en-masse and overload the Medicare and Social Security systems – has been known for more than 30 years.  The government did nothing about it because fixing this would have meant curtailing forward promises of benefits or massive tax increases thirty years ago.  Today, that problem cannot be solved with tax increases as the money is not there and cannot be extracted from the economy.  As a consequence major benefit cuts are going to happen, irrespective of the political demands placed on the government.  You must be prepared to survive and continue onward without any government support.  Figure it out, right now and alter your lifestyle today, or suffer the consequences.

• Did you successfully transition your relationship with your children (if any) from one of dependence to one of mutual respect?  This doesn’t always work, by the way.  Kids are independent human beings, and no matter how you parent them some percentage will be anti-social jackasses as will some parents.  This is reality.  However, it doesn’t help if you treated your kids as chattel or worse, abused them or worse, or showered them with all sorts of “entitlements” as kids, because now they’ll expect the same as adults!  Historically the solution to getting older meant living in extended family units.  It will again – if you didn’t ruin those connections with your children.  If you did, I hope you’re wealthy – truly wealthy – or you’re in lots of trouble.  Begging sucks as does apologizing for your previous acts along with repairing broken family relationships but it beats the hell out of starving and/or freezing to death.  Choose wisely and choose today.

• Got faith?  There may or may not be a God, but it’s a fact that there’s a congregation in the corner Church on Sunday.  Consider that if the Zombie Apocalypse comes knocking your local faith community may be the best option for mutually-arranged self-defense, the patching of any holes that might get made in places you’d rather not have them, and the provision of basic human needs, including most-particularly something hot to put down the pie hole.  Is faith practical?  You decide, and consider this along with the following indisputable fact: Once you know for sure if there’s a God it’s too late to change your mind.

• Resolve self-regulation issues – now.  The majority of Americans are overweight or obese.  A minority exercise three times a week for 20 minutes at a moderate to intense level of activity.  One of the Christian “seven deadly sins” is gluttony, and it’s not just found in the bottle or the dope bag – it’s also found in the grocery store, at the fast-food joint and on the couch.  America has enjoyed the ability to call “911″ any time and have an ambulance magically appear to whisk you to the hospital when you feel that nasty tightness in your chest.  In fact, an amazing number of municipalities have managed to vote into place ridiculous tax increases (including my local area) to pay for exactly that.  Instead, a volunteer fire department would be sufficient without the “ALS” ambulance service at a quarter of the cost – and the average homeowner, who pays $250 a year or more for that “enhanaced” level of service, could buy more than enough running shoes and save five times that much or more on food not consumed – and not need the EMS!  The same thing happens in the doctor’s office every day: “Doc, do you have a pill for that?”  Guess what – we can’t afford to pay for your pills, the EMS, or the hospital – you can’t cover it individually and we can’t cover it as a society.  Therefore, either solve your self-regulation issues or suffer the inevitable consequences.  It’s time to grow up America.
• Come to grips with your mortality.  If you prefer to use faith, that’s fine.  If you don’t believe in God, that’s fine too – Darwin will do as well.  Nonetheless we are all mortal and we are going to have to deal with the fact that we cannot have medical services we are unable to personally pay for.  This is a major shift after the idiotic moves of the last 30 years, but it is nonetheless a fact.  Leverage enabled the pulling forward of demand for medical services into today that were promised to be paid for tomorrow, but now tomorrow has come and there’s no more ability to pull that demand forward.  See the “Self-Regulation” bullet point above and consider that your success or failure in dealing with that will materially change your interaction with this point, then choose.  If you believe that with the global finance ponzi collapsing you’ll be able to demand a pair of $100,000 hips, a $90,000 prostate cancer treatment or $250,000 for bypass surgery from “society”, you’re wrong.  The money doesn’t exist any more, which means you either earn and stash it yourself during your productive years, do what you need to so those things are unnecessary (to the extent you can), or face the fact that we all die and your time might be now.

If you’d like the above in a “religious” format someone on the forum posted a link to the a sermon tracking much of the above.  Yeah, it’s 45 minutes.  But it’s pretty much spot-on in Christian terms.

Time is short; choose wisely.

That didn’t take long….

United States of America Long-Term debt rating lowered to “AA+” on political risks and rising debt burden; outlook negative.

And so it begins.  With the outlook, it is clear that S&P believes this is not a one-step “and done” move either.

Why?  Oh, they were rather expansive on that point:

· The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government’s medium-term debt dynamics.

“We said $4 trillion and we meant it.“

· More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

· Since then, we have changed our view of the difficulties in bridging the gulf between the political parties over fiscal policy, which makes us pessimistic about the capacity of Congress and the Administration to be able to leverage their agreement this week into a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the government’s debt dynamics any time soon.

Granny cannot have her two new hips and Gramps cannot have his quad-bypass.  We cannot pay $100,000 for every man who gets Stage IV prostate cancer to have four more months of life.  We cannot have 1 in 6 families on food stamps and half the working population paying no income tax to buy their votes, yet at the same time spend $750 billion on wars (half of which is really about securing oil supplies; ergo, we cannot spend $300/bbl on imported oil and $200/bbl on all oil on average while claiming it’s only $100) nor can we spend $15,000 a year “educating” kids who do not understand nor care about the basic function of exponents.

And we cannot sit idly by while both political parties lie about:

• Cuts that are not actually cuts. Spending less than you intended to, but more than last year, is not a “cut.”  This is like a 400lb man going to the Chinese Buffet every day and eating five plates instead of six, claiming that he’s “dieting.”  Ok, in a year he’ll weigh 500lbs instead of 600, but that’s not a “cut.”
• “Stimulus” that is nothing more than demand replacement. We’re now up to more than 12% of GDP.  This is not a “bridge” to tide us over either – we’ve been doing it for three straight years and will be four by the end of the year. This is a major problem as once this becomes part of what the economy “expects” it is no longer stimulative and results in people doing less work and expecting more “cheese.”
• The promise to reduce spending (and raise taxes) “tomorrow” and “on someone else.” There’s a 30 year history on this – spending decreases come never, tax increases usually do occur.  But this time tax decreases that were allegedly “temporary” (e.g. the Bush Tax cuts) wind up permanent (even among those who say they won’t support it, ala Democrats) and they even get added to – such as the FICA tax reduction!

We suffer from the utter inability of either political party to stand at a podium and tell the truth. We cannot have $100,000 in income and spend $170,000+ a year.  Yet we have and we are.  Try this in your household and see what happens.  More to the point it is mathematically impossible to sustain any economic system where debt rises at a faster rate than actual productive output does. This is fifth-grade mathematics and yet we have intentionally and willfully ignored it for thirty years.  There is not one politician from either major political party who will stand before the public and tell the truth on these matters.  Not one.

· The outlook on the long-term rating is negative. We could lower the long-term rating to ‘AA’ within the next two years if we see that less reduction in spending than agreed to, higher interest rates, or new fiscal pressures during the period result in a higher general government debt trajectory than we currently assume in our base case.

In short: Stop lying, right now, or else. “We said $4 trillion, we meant it, and oh by the way that was a down payment, not the total amount of reduction.  Care to try our patience again?”

To the “Tea Party” that was crowing about how they were “successful”, how does that success taste? Half of your members in fact defected when it came time to vote, and despite the crows of “success” (which was really nothing more than glee over “beating the Democrats desire to increase taxes”) the bad outcome that you claimed to be trying to avoid happened. Now what?

To the Democrats who said this was a “good bill” or even one “we can support”: How does abject failure taste? Your refusal to admit that you cannot spend more than you take in on a perpetual basis and your incessant demands to spend more and more without any plan to pay for it, despite screeches of “tax the rich” and “fair shares” has gone nowhere.

To the “mainstream” Republicans who said this was “the best we could do” or even “a good bill”: How are you feeling this morning? Got out of town in seconds after that vote did ‘ya?  Well gee, that worked out real well eh?  Now what?

Some more facts – and you’re not going to like any of them:

• Within hours of the passage of the bill more than half of the authorized increase in the debt ceiling (the first tranch) was blown and gone as Geithner unwound all the screwball theft games he had played for the previous two months.  More than $200 billion instantly vanished.  The scale and price of his deception was instantly laid bare upon the table, as was our fiscal trajectory, since June is one of the heavy tax receipt months (estimated taxes.)
• In calendar year 2007 GDP was $14.3 trillion, more or less.  The actual borrowing increase was $548 billion.  The Federal budget was $2.73 trillion.  To balance our fiscal house we would have had to cut 20% of the Federal government – in 2007.

• In the last year GDP was $14.8 trillion, more or less.  The actual borrowing increase was $1,700 billion.  The Federal budget (which was never actually passed and signed, a rank violation of Constitutional requirements) was $3.8 trillion.  To balance our fiscal house we would have had to cut 45% of the Federal government – more than double the 2007 figure.

• To bring the economy into balance debt must not grow faster than GDP.  In a time when GDP is shrinking debt must shrink faster, not grow faster. This is basic exponential mathematics.  15 minutes with Excel will prove this to anyone’s satisfaction.  This has been the foundation of my perspective on the economy and our errors since I started pontificating in public on it in the 1990s while running MCSNet, and has been the foundation of The Ticker as well.  Twice in the last month or so I have posted links to Google spreadsheets for those too lazy to do it themselves, making it even easier to visualize what I’ve been talking about.  Anyone arguing otherwise must be able to demonstrate why the laws of mathematics do not apply and prove they are correct, and if they’re unable to they must be ejected from the debate on the path we take as a nation.

So for exactly how long did CONgress think it was going to get away with this?

Washington DC has turned into a bunch of sodomites and the American public and our currency are the victims of their serial abuse.  The alleged filibuster threat on the debt ceiling bill, which would have delayed passage (oh no!) turned out to be a bunch of hot air.  Sure, they had the votes for cloture but those threatening to force the vote never did so, so the threat was simple hot air – political theater.

Vote-buying with entitlements and other spending is an easy sport to engage in but it ultimately fiscally dooms a nation.  I have warned of this path for years, going back to the earliest Tickers, and pointed to how companies like Washington Mutual (and others) were doing it as well, paying dividends out of money they didn’t have.  This always ends in disaster, as it simply must – it is a matter of mathematics that when you continually spend more than you make you will eventually go broke.

To those in the economics “profession” who say that a sovereign that prints its own money cannot go broke, you’re technically correct and factually lying, and you know it.  Yes, we can print as many dollars as we wish, but doing so makes each dollar worth less in terms of goods and services.  The same outcome as if we didn’t print the money is inevitable – the “free shit” ends because the recipients all starve due to the fact that their “money” doesn’t buy anything any more.  When you’re in an economy that is reliant on the import of various goods (especially energy) this sort of destructive cycle is akin to sodomizing puppies and claiming that since they’re not people your sin (and crime) doesn’t count.

These very same “economists” all laud the “virtue” of free trade.  In fact it’s trade with economic slave-holders and there’s nothing “free” – or fair – about it.  China’s whining about the downgrade last night and this morning needs to be met with one response: Die in a fire – and if you try anything hinky, we’ll ignite the fire. There is nothing innocent or victim-like about their role here; they were not only willing participants they have been exploiting the imbalances, stealing our intellectual property and abusing their citizens the entire time.  Bluntly: China deserves the skullfucking it is about to receive.

We must rebuild our labor force.  This means wage and environmental parity tariffs.  Yes, this means that Giganticus Corporatus will have a 15% pretax operating margin instead of 30% and its stock price will be $40 instead of $400.  So what? There will be actual income generated by actual people here in the US building actual things instead of conspiring with one another on how to steal another $15,000 from a homeowner through serial refinance fees.  The former is a productive enterprise; the latter legalized extortion and theft.

We must fix the tax code.  Rip the damn thing up!  There are two rational choices: A flat tax with no more than three or four brackets and no zero bracket or deductions and The Fair Tax.  In either case capital formation must not be penalized and borrowing must not be incented. This means that dividends must be taxed once.  Taxing short-term capital gains as income is fine (speculators should not be able to get a free ride) but the long-term capital formation (e.g. pick a period – 3 years sounds about right) must not be deterred.  The government could have taxed away the roughly $60,000 in cash that formed the base of MCSNet.  If it had the many millions in revenue, spending, payroll and taxes ultimately resulting from the formation of that capital would not have happened.

We must eject the illegal aliens in this nation.  I know neither side of the political aisle wants to, but that doesn’t matter.  At a time when we have a huge percentage of citizens out of work it is an outrage that illegal Mexicans are taking any jobs in this country. Make our policy clear: Leave voluntarily right now, or we will find you, will lock you up, make you break rocks for five years and repave our freeways as your work while imprisoned, then deport you.

We must fix the health care system, not “Medicare” or “Medicaid.”  I have written on this extensively and it features prominently in Leverage (the book) as well.  This means an immediate end to the cost-shifting by providers, drug and device makers.  It means an honest debate as to what, if anything, society owes people in this regard and that subsidy must be transparent and paid for with current tax revenues. If it cannot be, it cannot be provided.  Period.

We must have that same honest debate about all other government programs.  For each program the people want, they must be able to fund it with current tax revenues, and nobody can be exempt from paying something toward it. Yes, some people will get more benefit than they pay in taxes – that’s the nature of such things, but those benefits that are intangible (e.g. national defense) are different than those that are direct and personal.  Nonetheless, no program may be funded and operated that we refuse to fund with present tax revenue. Period.

Stop talking about “growth” being able to fix this mess. It cannot.  From 1990 onward our average GDP growth has been under 5% and since 2000 approximately 4%.  But in fact all of that was false, as this chart conclusively shows:

We didn’t produce any of the so-called “economic growth” since the 1980s.  We borrowed more and more money to cover up the offshoring and shrinking of our productive enterprises here in this country!  That borrowing allowed us to continue to pretend we were making economic progress when in fact we were not.  Consider this: The 1980s and 1990s, which were all about the great “productivity improvements of the Internet and computers” we all heard about, were pathological lies enabled by leverage abuse.

We must stop this crap – right now, right here.

Our politicians must stand and tell the truth: You were promised great things by government, but those promises were lies.  We didn’t impose taxes sufficient to pay for these great things, and worse, the tax money we did collect was spent buying votes instead of providing what we promised you.  We are all collectivity responsible for this – you for demanding that which you were unwilling to pay for, and we in continuing to lie to you for thirty years and enabling the fraud and leverage abuse that made the illusion of prosperity possible, along with bailing out the so-called “captains of industry and finance” that conspired with us to delude you.

Yes, this will result in a monstrous economic contraction.  That was unavoidable in 2000, but it was reasonable in size.  It was unavoidable in 2007 too, and was worse than in 2000.  Now it’s even worse than in 2007 by a considerable degree and the longer we wait to accept reality the worse it gets.  I’ve now got more than ten years of consistent, every-single-year history on my side – the claims of the “supply-siders” and “Keynesians” have not translated into a reduction or elimination of these imbalances, they have made them worse!

Stand up politicians, tell the truth, and deal with the consequences.

We are dangerously close to running out of options in this regard.

The theory behind the higher education bubble says that while the cost of an education increases, the ability to pay back student loans decreases.

The theory has its roots in the late 1980s when Secretary of Education William Bennett, Jr. suggested student loans could be leading to drastic tuition increases and a coming education bubble.

The following chart offers some perspective on the rate of tuition increases compared to the consumer price index and home prices.

Business Insider

The global economy is doomed to implosion, and here are four charts which explain why.
 
Though the complexities may appear endless, the global economy’s coming implosion is really fairly easy to understand: here are four charts which do the heavy lifting. It boils down to these basics:

1. When money is dear and difficult to borrow, then productivity and capital accumulation are encouraged, speculation, malinvestment and debt-based consumption are discouraged.

2. When money is “free” (zero-interest rate policy) and liquidity is unlimited, then the opposite conditions hold: speculation in risk assets, malinvestment and debt-based consumption are all encouraged, and productivity and capital accumulation are heavily discouraged.

3. When debts exceed the value of the underlying assets, the only way out of the Tyranny of Debt is to write off the debt on both the borrower and lender’s balance sheets, wiping out their capital via liquidation and bankruptcy.

4. The “extend and pretend” policy pursued by all major nations is simply transferring the impaired debt from private hands to the taxpayers (public debt), crippling the economy with higher taxes and higher debt service.

5. The Central State’s “extend and pretend” policy requires heavy borrowing every year to prop up the status quo, pushing the Central State (or equivalent, i.e. the Eurozone) into an inescapable double-bind: either continue increasing public debt and cripple the economy with high taxes and high public-debt servicing costs, or let the financial status quo of “profits are private, losses are public” implode.

The first path leads to default, as the Tyranny of Debt cannot be masked for long, while the second path wipes out the Financial Power Elite which feeds the politicians.

Here are the charts. Note how the speculative economy created the illusion of rising wealth for the bottom 90%, an illusion stripped away by the Default Economy.

In essence, the Financial Power Elites profited immensely from creating this illusory wealth which gave the bottom 90% the false sensation that their declining earnings and purchasing power were being offset by the “magic” of asset bubbles.

Then, when the bubble popped, the Financial Power Elites transferred the impaired assets to the taxpayers, a process which is still underway. The politicos of both parties are complicit; behind the simulacra of toothless “reforms,” this process proceeds in myriad ways (Bank of America transferring toxic debt to Fannie/Freddie, etc.) Behind the smokescreen of conjuring a “wealth effect” to foster more consumption, the Fed’s purchase of Treasuries (QE2) serves this transfer-of-debt-to-the-public process.

This same process is playing out throughout the global economy: Greece, Ireland, the U.S., and eventually, in China when its monumental property bubble pops.

Of Two Minds

I recently had a conversation with a retired neighbor, a former Navy vet who worked most of his life at a local grocery store.  I wouldn’t call him wealthy but he has his financial house in order; he paid off his home in the early 1990s, has no other debts, and lives well below his means.  His big source of income comes from Social Security.  We talked about the current economy and the strain we are facing.  It was a good conversation and ultimately the mathematical problems we are facing for the working and middle class become extremely obvious when confronted face to face.  We both conceded that government retirement programs will have problems in one or two decades (doesn’t help many who are still working).  The economic issues faced between the generations will cause many hard decisions down the road.

First, we should examine income levels in the U.S.:

Source:  Bankrate

The bulk of American households bring in $65,000 a year or less.  The current tax rate for FICA (Social Security and Medicare taxes) comes in at 7.65% with the remainder paid by the employer.  So the family making $65,000 a year is paying roughly $5,000 a year into FICA.  With the employer match, this figure comes out closer to $10,000 going into the system.  If we look at the current amount paid out to Social Security beneficiaries it is roughly the same per year:

The average monthly benefit paid out is $1,067.  Over 53 million Americans receive some form of Social Security benefits.  The working and middle class have had an implicit agreement with the government that if they work for many decades that in the end there will be some sort of safety net to protect them.  Yet the system was designed at a time when people died at earlier ages and we had many more workers than we had beneficiaries.  The math now is tipping in a very unfortunate direction:

As of today, nearly 19 percent of all Americans receive some form of Social Security.  Compare this to 1970 when only 12 percent of all Americans received some form of Social Security.  The above chart is merely going to grow even faster as many more baby boomers enter into retirement.  For those in the working to middle class the prospect of a secure retirement is looking more and more remote.  It would be one thing if people had the ability to trust in Wall Street and invest into the market.  Yet Wall Street with no real reform is largely a predator casino as we have seen with flash crashes and large hedge funds making billions of dollars betting on the failure of Americans.

The original Social Security Act was signed in back in 1935.  The initial design was to help the old, widows, and children of the poor to have at least some basic safety net.  It was never designed as a long-term retirement program.  Today, over 50% of those that receive Social Security benefits in retirement use it as their primary source of income.  With Americans living longer, the strain on the system is largely taken on by the working generations.

Here is an interesting chart showing the progressive growth of the tax over the century:

Initially, the amount taken out of a typical worker’s paycheck was 1 percent.  Today it is up to 7.65 percent (not factoring in the employer’s portion).  It is also the case that SS is capped at a certain income level so the wealthy actually stop paying above a certain level (as of 2010 this level is $106,800).  Going back to a previous chart, you see that nearly $57 billion was paid out in May alone.  The demographics of the system only point to larger and larger monthly payouts:

The above chart is similar to charts in Europe although not as extreme.  But we see a shift to more and older Americans.  By default, many of these people will start drawing more and more on the already strained Social Security system.  And younger workers in our current economy are facing a much deeper impact of the current recession.  Even before the collapse of the system, the young were already losing ground:

The median net worth of Americans from 25 to 34 has consistently dropped since 1985.  There was a big drop from 2000 to 2004 and I would imagine the trend has accelerated in the current recession.  Yet how were people able to continue buying more and more?  It was all fueled by access to debt.  It was largely a debtor mirage that kept the economy going in the last decade.  In fact, the median amount Americans have saved in a retirement account (those still working) is $2,000:

Source:  BLS

The fact that the mean is $50,000 tells us we have massive income disparities in the system and it also helps to point to the fact that most stock wealth is concentrated in the hands of a very few.  Another deceiving factor that was brought into the net worth equation was the net worth figure used housing values during a bubble to calculate net worth:

A giant part of net worth was pulled from housing equity that has now largely evaporated.  The fact that half of U.S. households only have $2,000 in retirement accounts tells us that many are close to a zero net worth after the housing bubble burst:

“(National Review) The macroeconomic consequences of this shift toward low-equity homeownership are visible in research from the Federal Reserve that examines the assets and liabilities of U.S. households. In the first quarter of 2001, U.S. households’ home equity stood at $7.7 trillion, or 61 percent of the value of all residential real estate. By the third quarter of 2008, it had declined to $7.6 trillion, even as outstanding mortgage debt increased by $5.6 trillion over the same period. By the first quarter of 2009, home equity was $1.35 trillion lower than it had been in 2001. Put another way: Despite the housing boom, the portion of residential real estate actually owned by households declined. This means that the increase in homeownership rates (and the subsequent rise in housing prices) was entirely debt-financed.”

In other words, say someone bought a home in 1998 for $100,000 and took out a $95,000 loan.  At purchase, they have a net worth of $5,000 (assume no other assets).  Fast forward to 2006 at the peak of the bubble and the home is now “worth” $250,000.  Seeing that they now have $155,000 in equity, they decide to pull out $75,000 pushing their total loan amount to close to $170,000.  The money is used to buy goods, take a vacation, and generally injected into the economy.  The housing bubble explodes and the home is now worth $150,000.  Yet they have $170,000 in outstanding loans.  This family went from having a $155,000 in equity (net worth) to suddenly going to a negative equity position of $20,000.  Today, one out of three U.S. homes with a mortgage is underwater.  This is why actual wealth is a better measure of financial well being than simply looking at home values especially in a bubble.

The higher unemployment for younger generations is making it harder to put more money into the Social Security money funnel. The low savings from the working generations tells us that many simply cannot save given the current economy.  Ironically, this means that many more will be dependent on government programs.  The calculus is troubling.  There are no easy answers to this.  A few of them include raising the cap to tax higher incomes or cutting benefits.  Seeing how powerful groups like the AARP are, it is doubtful benefits will be cut.

As I think back on the conversation with my neighbor that has served our country proudly in combat, how can you begrudge him?  He is living modestly, paid off his house, and let us be honest, $1,100 a month isn’t exactly Donald Trump territory.  Yet as I go out to work with millions of others, we wonder how things will be in one, two, or even three generations.  Having a paid off home and no debt actually sounds like the apex of a good retirement given our current financial predicament.

MyBudget 360

Michael David White has painted some dire pictures of the US housing market, but this one is shocking in its implications.

Chart fromA Blistering Ride Through Hell by Michael David White.

I enjoyed the synopsis of this chart that was done by Automatic Earth in Is It Time to Storm the Bastille Again:

“That is, what Americans’ homes are worth, their equity, decreased by $7 trillion -from $20 trillion to $13 trillion, from spring 2006 to spring 2010. In the same period, mortgage debt, what Americans owe on their homes, went down by only $270 billion. Yes, that’s right: US homeowners lost more, by a factor of 26, than they “gained” through clearing mortgage debt. Thus, if we estimate that there are 75 million homeowners in America, they all, each and every one of them, lost $93,333.”

Nine out of ten Americans will notice that there is a significant gap that must be closed here. What makes it even more chilling is that the gap is continuing to widen as home prices continue to correct to the mean.

This debt must be resolved. There are two major ways to do it: repayment and default.

Repayment is probably a fantasy, if not beating a dead horse. The homeowners do not have the money with which to pay the loans given the current state of employment and wage stagnation, and the mortgages are for the most part on houses whose value is significantly under water compared to the debt, as in ‘ just mail in the keys.’

Straight up default, writing off the debt through principal adjustment, is also probably out of the question, because it would essentially vaporize the balance sheet of the US banking system which is also insolvent, to a greater degree than most understand, and if they understand it, would admit.

Automatic Earth references an essay which we also had linked here by Eric Sprott called Wither Green Shoots that points out the unfortunate fact that of the 986 bank holding companies in the US, 980 of them lost money last year. The lucky six were the TBTF banks on major government subsidy.

So, where is the government going to liquidate the debt? And what effect will it have on dollar assets when they do it?

The Japanese solution was to ignore their bad debt and insolvent kereitsu, because admitting it would cause significant loss of face, not to mention financial loss, to an elite that does not permit such things to happen. So instead they arranged for their single party LDP system to drag the debt like a ball and chain through what came to be known as ‘the lost decade’ while they tried to make it go away by export mercantilism and crony monetarism wherein funds were given to the same kereitsu in a remarkably ambitious (and expensively wasteful) series of public works boondoggles.

Do you think the US can follow this path? As if. Japan started from a base as a net exporter with a huge trade surplus and little debt. Scratch that idea.

Someone has to end up ‘holding the bag.’ And the consumer cannot rise to the occasion, the banks are all insolvent and a sinkhole until they change their business models. So what will be ‘the last bubble?’ Bernanke has managed to monetize about 1.5 trillion dollars so far. Only 5.5 trillion more to go, if housing prices can stabilize at current levels, and employment return to pre-crash levels quickly.

A few European readers have expressed their relief, and some noticeable pride, that their banking and political system resolved its own debt crisis so quickly and easily. To the extent that their banks are holding dollar denominated financial assets, they have merely stopped the table from shaking for the moment, as their sand castles await the next mega tsunami to come rolling across the Atlantic.

Consider this well, and you will understand what is happening in the economy, and why certain things occur over the next 24 months, despite the fog of wars, currency and otherwise.

It will be amazing, but it won’t be pretty. And it was all unnecessary, attributable to the dishonesty and greed of a remarkably small number of men in New York and Washington who managed to rig the markets and the political process, with the acquiescence and support of a public grown complacent and in far too many cases, soft headed and corrupt.

These are the same people, along with their enablers, who are now preaching the virtues of austerity for the many, and free and easy markets for themselves. All gain, no pain. While the game is going it must still be played.

 Bernie Madoff was lying and cheating and taking money until the day he closed his doors.

Perhaps they are in denial, but surely they must hear the footsteps of history approaching. And their bravado is yet another bluff, and hides the rising stink of fear.

Jesse’s Cafe Americain