FedUpUSA

Archive for the ‘Credit Rating Agencies’ Category

Well now Moody’s has gone and done it.

They just hit BAC, C and WFC with downgrades, saying that the government is “more likely” to allow a large bank to fail if they get in trouble.

This belies the truth, which is that the government doesn’t have the capacity to bail out a trillion-dollar boondoggle any more.  There’s no way to get another TARP through Congress and there’s no back-door way to fund it either.

So Moody’s is correct, in a round-about sort of fashion.  Let’s not conflate desire with capacity, eh?

The entire banking sector took an instant dive on that, with BAC now down more than 5% and Wells, which was up, back to even.

Bank of America’s insular, CEO-blowing board needs to do some firing in the executive suite.  May I suggest a Howitzer for the means of that “firing”?

Frankly I’m not sure it matters at this point.  Countrywide was a monstrous mistake, and a very expensive one on top of it. Tangelo should have been peeled in 2008 if not before rather than riding off into the sunset with a civil penalty that Bank of America paid a huge chunk of. Nobody seems to care much about the fact that all of these banks have been implicated in various schemes and frauds related to foreclosures – not that this is new, of course, in that they did the same thing on the way up with appraisals and similar, blacklisting honest appraisers and essentially demanding overvaluations to “support” their reckless lending.

Now let’s add to that: Nevada is apparently preparing to criminally charge some of these institutions.  That’s not sue, it’s prosecute.  We don’t yet know who the targets are but this will mark the first actual criminal indictments of note should they actually appear.  For my part I’m not going to believe it until I see it, considering how overdue such an action is in the context of anything even lightly-related to the concept of ”justice.”

Are we finally going to “Stop the looting and start prosecuting”?  Hope springs eternal.

Here’s the rub, when you get down to it:  Every one of these institutions should have been a zero in 2008 and the executives should have been brought up on indictments.  As such the alleged “value” in these firms is nothing more than government support for the same sort of business model as Full Tilt Poker is accused of – that is, claiming value in assets that does not in fact exist, relying on the belief that everyone will not show up and demand their money at the same time.  Proof of this is readily available every day in the market in that these firms are selling at a fraction of their claimed book value; if there was anyone who believed that the accounting was honest they’d instantly buy the firm in question as that would be fastest and most-certain money ever made in M&A.

That it hasn’t happened is all the proof you need that the accounting is absolute and utter crap.

Oh Mr. Buffett?  How’s your position in BAC working out?

First they cut the rating of the US, then the went and downgraded Google, now S&P is going for the “treason trifecta” by just releasing a report which literally takes the US to the toolshed. Among many other things, the rating agency just cut US growth for the next 3 years. To wit: “While July data finally showed a slight improvement in the U.S. economy, it’s not enough to support expectations that the second half of the year will see a bounce in growth. We now expect to see an even slower recovery than the half-speed we earlier expected.

We now expect just 1.9% growth in the third quarter and 1.8% in the fourth, to bring 2011 calendar year growth closer to 1.7% instead of 2.4% we earlier expected. We also downwardly revised growth expectations for 2012 and 2013, as a more drawn-out recovery is factored into our forecast.” We wonder how soon before the realization that the US is in fact contracting will force S&P to downgrade America even further, a move which will force Moodys and Fitch to come up with a AAAA rating for the US in order to keep the weighted average rating at current levels. It gets even worse though as S&P now openly brings the 2008 analogy: “The markets’ violent swings in early August resurrected fears of the market meltdown, such as the one in 2008 when Lehman Brothers went under and Reserve Fund broke the buck.

Currently, the crisis is considered to be much more severe, with U.S. sovereign debt at risk of default. The low Treasury yields indicated that markets were expecting Congress to come to its senses and reach a deal. However, the wait and the last-minute deal, which left a lot to be desired, only increased worries that the government will do more harm than good. Confidence in the recovery and in U.S. policymaking has hit new lows.

After U.S. sovereign debt lost its triple-A status and financial markets unwound, consumer confidence hit a 31-year low and manufacturing sentiment readings contracted.” And the kicker: S&P, yes S&P, makes fun of the Fed, and specifically the “transitory” nature of the economic collapse: “Continued weak growth after sharply downward GDP revisions has made the “temporary argument” a less plausible explanation for the slew of bad news for the first half of the year. At least the GDP revisions make the persistently high unemployment rate make more sense. But the revised data also indicate a much weaker outlook than we previously expected. As the boosts from rebuilding inventories and fiscal stimulus unwound, consumer spending and housing couldn’t cover the hole, because the former is still working off excess debts and the latter excess supply. The recovery comprised a first-half average growth of just 0.8%.” And that is how you respond to endless scapegoating that now blames the S&P for the collapse. Look for S&P to make the FBI’s most wanted list very shortly.

From S&P:

U.S. Economic Forecast: Still Treading Water

On August 5, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the U.S. to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ and kept its negative rating outlook, which increased worries that the economic recovery has faltered. The downgrade and concerns that the eurozone sovereign debt crisis was spreading north to France caused markets to go into a tailspin last week. This likely forced the Federal Reserve to take more policy action, which helped calm markets.

However, while the market panic subsided, recovery concerns that helped launch it are still very real. After the recession officially ended two years ago, the outlook for growth is worsening and the U.S. economy is still treading water trying to stay afloat. The “temporary shocks” sound less convincing, even to the Fed, as an explanation of paltry growth during the last two quarters. The lack of underlying momentum was highlighted in second-quarter GDP report, where backward revisions showed not only how much worse the recession was, but how anemic the recovery really is.

While July data finally showed a slight improvement in the U.S. economy, it’s not enough to support expectations that the second half of the year will see a bounce in growth. We now expect to see an even slower recovery than the half-speed we earlier expected. We now expect just 1.9% growth in the third quarter and 1.8% in the fourth, to bring 2011 calendar year growth closer to 1.7% instead of 2.4% we earlier expected. We also downwardly revised growth expectations for 2012 and 2013, as a more drawn-out recovery is factored into our forecast.

It is disturbing that policymakers do not seem to have the weapons or the political resolve to fight the economic crisis. Those policy problems are a large reason why we believe the economy is more vulnerable to another recession. Once again the Fed is willing to step in, just like it did in 2008 when Congress refused to pass legislation (including TARP), as markets spiraled out of control. But this time, the Fed is confronting the collapse with a sling shot, not a bazooka, so its measures will have less bite.

We are not surprised that in the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression, the recovery would be slow and uneven. As history has shown, financial crises are often followed by prolonged recessions, and after that, a long bout of sub-par growth. Several studies measure just how much damage a financial crisis can cause, and how long it can last. According to these studies, economic growth will be slower than normally expected, which most people won’t recognize as a recovery.

Just Like Old Times

The markets’ violent swings in early August resurrected fears of the market meltdown, such as the one in 2008 when Lehman Brothers went under and Reserve Fund broke the buck. Currently, the crisis is considered to be much more severe, with U.S. sovereign debt at risk of default. The low Treasury yields indicated that markets were expecting Congress to come to its senses and reach a deal. However, the wait and the last-minute deal, which left a lot to be desired, only increased worries that the government will do more harm than good.

Confidence in the recovery and in U.S. policymaking has hit new lows. After U.S. sovereign debt lost its triple-A status and financial markets unwound, consumer confidence hit a 31-year low and manufacturing sentiment readings contracted. While some hard data, such as the stronger-than-expected July retail sales and recent jobs report, show that not all news is bleak, the preponderance of evidence to the contrary explains the sour moods. Though we still expect weak growth, not a recession, the data indicate a more drawn-out, painful recovery than the half-speed one we earlier expected.

Continued weak growth after sharply downward GDP revisions has made the “temporary argument” a less plausible explanation for the slew of bad news for the first half of the year. At least the GDP revisions make the persistently high unemployment rate make more sense. But the revised data also indicate a much weaker outlook than we previously expected. As the boosts from rebuilding inventories and fiscal stimulus unwound, consumer spending and housing couldn’t cover the hole, because the former is still working off excess debts and the latter excess supply. The recovery comprised a first-half average growth of just 0.8%.

The storms that blanketed the U.S. this winter kept people away from the mall and Japan’s natural disaster supply-chain disruptions can only be partly blamed for lower sales. More importantly, the consumers have been squeezed by higher commodity prices which wiped out any benefit of the payroll-tax credit. The high unemployment rate, at 9.1%, kept people cautious, worried that even if they have a job, they may lose it next week. Amid sluggish job market and stagnant wages, the wallets are empty after people fill up their gas tanks.

There are some signs that the second half of 2011 won’t look as bad as the first; however, anything slightly better than a 0.8% average growth rate is not impressive. The jobs market will likely remain weak into 2013, so housing will remain soft. We expected some improvement in the jobs market to help revive household formation to absorb excess supply. So without that jobs-related boost, housing won’t contribute to the recovery. However, maybe it was retail therapy after all the sour news, but the July retail sales data showed that consumers began to spend more. Total sales jumped an upbeat 0.5% over June numbers, and it’s not because of a hefty price tag at the pump. Excluding autos, gas, and building materials, sales were up 0.3% in July after a 0.4% increase in June (sharply revised up from a 0.1% gain). This comes while the government payrolls report posted a better-than-expected 117,000 job gain and the unemployment rate slipped to 9.1% from 9.2% in June. The results by no means suggest that we are in the clear. But at least the economy is inching away from a double-dip recession.

 
Ready To Take Another Dip?

Does the Great Recession have company? Many think that another crisis will follow the Great Recession. The global stock-market plunge reflected fears that a double-dip recession is coming. The bad news during the last few months suggests that these fears may not be unfounded. The supply shock due to the earthquake in Japan, climbing energy prices, and massive storms have certainly contributed to the slowing U.S. economy. But even the Fed admitted that those events alone may not explain the extent of the decline. As I said in my last monthly forecast report, if a couple of one-offs can do so much damage, it shows just how fragile this recovery is.

As the economic data continue to disappoint, we have become more worried about the strength of the recovery. We have been expecting a half-speed recovery for some time. However, the onslaught of dismal news puts even that forecast at risk. We now expect below-potential growth through the end of next year. And while the numbers are still positive, the smaller they get, the greater the risk of dipping into another recession. On August 5, we increased the chance of a recession in the next year to 35% from 30% in June, and well above the 25% odds we expected in March.

Given a lag in the release of economic data, which is often revised, it’s hard to identify a recession in real time. It takes the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) many months to announce the start of a recession, and in case of the 2001 recession, it ended just when NBER declared that it began.  But markets still keep trying to predict. There are a lot of rules of thumb that the investment community uses to signal a recession. One, backed up by a Fed study, says that when real GDP growth drops below 2% year-over-year, a recession follows within a year roughly 70% of the time. Second-quarter GDP growth was 1.6% over last year, so we have a little more time. The three-month unemployment average rate is another important indicator. Since the Second World War, if unemployment rate climbs by more than 0.3%, a recession has always followed. We would need the three-month average rate to reach 9.3%, in order to top the 8.9% trough in March, to say with more certainty that recession has started. Given the July figure edged down 0.1% to 9.1%, we still haven’t arrived at that point. While a market sell-off is also watched, a plunge in stocks during the past three weeks doesn’t necessarily mean a new recession (the economy avoided a recession after the stock market crash of 1987). However, amid the fragile
economy, the shock of another stock market drop and resulting loss of wealth could be the tipping point.

Trying to use various rules of thumb to determine a coming recession can be dangerous. And in this case, where we have a very sluggish recovery, the normal rules may not apply. We may still be in a sustained, though weak, recovery with intermittent declines bringing the growth rate so close to zero, which would imply that the economy is falling into recession. But the signals are disturbing, and at a minimum they show an economy with very feeble growth prospects.

With the odds of a double dip at 35% and climbing every time stock market sells off, credit spreads widening, and consumer confidence dropping, when does a double dip becomes the most likely outcome for the U.S.? As the recovery is on a precipice, there are a few things to watch. Another shock to the economy, even a mild one, could push the recovery back into recession. We’d watch whether the deterioration in financial conditions persists or if leading economic data worsen. Another plunge in the stock market, a deeper contraction in already weak consumer confidence levels, one more spike in initial claims that holds, or sub-50 ISM readings for several months would push the recession gauge to the brink.

It’s Only Just Begun

Why are we surprised that in the aftermath of the worst recession since the Great Depression the recovery would also be slow and uneven? As history has shown, financial crises are often followed by prolonged recessions, which is followed by a long bout of sub-par growth. Several studies measure just how much damage a financial crisis can cause and how long it can last. According to these studies, recoveries from financial crises are typically a hard climb. The economic growth will be slower than normally expected and won’t be felt as a recovery by most.

The McKinsey report (Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences, 2010) found 45 episodes of deleveraging since the Great Depression, of which 32 followed a financial crisis. The types of deleveraging the report documented included “belt tightening,” massive defaults, high inflation, or “growing out of debt” (through strong economic expansion, a war, or a “peace dividend”). The report found that the most common type of deleveraging after a major financial crisis is the “belt tightening” scenario, which is what the U.S. is now experiencing.

The McKinsey report said that if today’s economies were to follow that path, they would experience six-seven years of deleveraging where the debt-to-GDP ratio falls by about 25%. As the debt is paid down, GDP growth could be slower than it would have been otherwise, unemployment consistently high, and inflation low (or deflation for some), which unfortunately sounds all too similar to our current situation.

A paper by Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart (After the Fall, 2010) put numbers to the news. According to their study, during the decade following a severe financial crisis, real per capita GDP growth rates were “significantly lower” with the median post-financial crisis GDP growth declining about 1% in the five advanced economies. The study also found that in the 10 years following a severe financial crisis, unemployment rates are significantly higher than in the decade preceding the crisis, with the median unemployment rate for the five advanced economies of about 5% higher. They wrote that “In ten of the fifteen post-crisis episodes, unemployment has never fallen back to its pre-crisis levels, not in the decade that followed now through end-2009.” These depressing results support our expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain above 8.5% through 2013 and not reach the estimated 5.5% natural rate for another 10 years.

What’s Left In The Tool Box?

In a sharp departure from the usual protocol, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last week assigned a time frame to its “extended period” phrase. While the statement had the usual caveats, which gives the Fed a way out, it indicated that economic conditions “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.” Nevertheless, it’s important to note that there were three dissenters to that opinion, which could lead to an interesting struggle between the doves and hawks for the remainder of 2011. In addition to the Fed’s pledge to essentially offer free money to markets for a few more years, the FOMC went on to say that it “discussed the range of policy tools available…” to strengthen the recovery, and “is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.”

The statement noted that the Committee “now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters” than it did before. The FOMC also finally indicated that not all the weakness in economic growth was transitory. And to no one’s surprise, the Committee said that downside risks have increased, suggesting that more easing is likely. We expect no rate hike from the Fed before 2014. Since the Fed has already played its best hand, it will likely attempt another program of quantitative easing similar to the last one, possibly later this year. Both measures should boost financial conditions, though they will only modestly support the economic growth. They will, however, prevent the risk of slipping into outright deflation. Given that the Fed has fewer effective ways to stop deflation but has numerous ways to tighten policy, the Fed will likely project the outlook to remain weak and fight deflation.

ZeroHedge

Let’s start with whose fault it is not: S&P.

To recap:

• S&P warned early in the year that there was a risk of a downgrade.
• S&P, when the debate was entered in May, said that they needed to see $4 trillion in actual deficit reduction and that this was a “down payment” on the problem, not the entire solution (they’re right, incidentally.)
• S&P then re-iterated the warning when the debate got contentious.

That’s (at least) three separate warnings that were intentionally ignored.  S&P was not ambiguous nor did they blindside anyone.  They told the government exactly what they needed to see and when in order to avoid the downgrade.  They’re blameless.

So who’s to blame?

• CONgress, for it’s willing refusal to either clearly state that it didn’t care if the downgrade happened or complying with S&Ps demands. Pick one.  When you have a firm saying “do X or we do Y”, and that’s a legal act, you either do X or you expect Y.  It is the height of arrogance to try to shine someone on like this – yet Congress did – on both sides of the aisle. If you’re in Congress and you’re “offended” or “surprised” by this action, STFU.  You have no right to complain – you knew exactly what you had to do in order to avoid it, and you failed.  Eat your (rotten) peas.

• President Obama, for his belief that he could simply bully an independent business into not doing a lawful thing. Again, he is a President, not a King.  Go back to Chicago Obama where you belong, and where “kneecap politics” are the way of the world.  Illinois deserves you.  Once again, eat your own damn peas.  You too knew exactly what you had to do as a leader to avoid the downgrade, and you failed.

• We the people, for our refusal to accept that we cannot have services from our government we refuse to pay for in the present tense. This is a fact, whether we like it or not. Our incessant demands for that which we refuse to pay for do not make those goods and services magically appear forever.  We are acting like spoiled little brats and deserve the spanking we are receiving this evening (and over the last two weeks) in our 401ks and IRAs.  Worse, the damage tonight is a “love tap” – the belt of cold hard economic reality, applied with extreme vengeance, is headed toward our butts if we don’t cut our behavior out right now.

We have all squandered the three years of forbearance we received after the 2008/09 crash.  Instead of doing the right thing we did the wrong thing.  Instead of closing bankrupt institutions we turned formal accounting fraud (“mark to myth”) into a legal and accepted practice.  Instead of accepting that we had a bloated Federal government that was not being funded with tax revenues we insisted on “more free cheese” to “help people” without any means to pay for it.  We listened to people like Biden and Obama who claimed we had to “stimulate” the economy, when in fact we’d been deficit spending to the tune of about $500 billion every year since 2003.  In other words we were already massively distorting the economy – and in no small part that was why we had a housing bubble.  Our nation is addicted to debt and we’re all in denial.

We must either face our addiction and break it or it will break us.

Never mind the “supply side” delusion.  Oh sure, it sounds good.  It even looks good – initially.  But explain to me this – if you’re a supply-sider, then how come the debt addition and GDP addition chart, if it works to produce sustainable economic growth, looks like this?

There’s the outcome of “supply side” economics: It’s a scam and a fraud – the math always shows exactly what you did, no matter what you claim happened.

Here’s the question before us tonight folks: Are we ready to accept reality?

While the markets are down a good bit, they opened down much more.  The rebound has been reasonably impressive.  But it can all disappear – and a lot more – by morning.  It will too, if not tomorrow then in the coming weeks and months if we don’t cut the crap.

You’ve already seen your 401ks and IRAs get trashed.  The next time it will not bounce by 100% in 18 months – it will go down and stay down because we already played all the “new fraud” cards to create the pop we have just “enjoyed.”  This time there is no ability to bail out the banks – irrespective of political will.  We either do the right thing – now – or events will overtake us in a disorderly fashion.

The G7 and ECB statements today were quite weak.  Oh sure, the Fed and the rest of the Central Banks will point their “bazookas” at the “evil speculators” and blast away with more liquidity (debt) in the firehose.  But there’s no meaningful uptake.

The credit report last Friday was especially alarming.  It showed, for the first time in a long time, an uptick in credit card debt.  This would be thought of as good rather than bad except that the consumer income and spending were down.

So we have consumers who are not getting more money and not spending it – they’re shifting spending to add more debt and it is reasonable to assume that this shift is forced rather than voluntary.

That’s very bad folks.

As I have said a few times of late I do not think it’s September of 2008 – yet.  I think the analogue is more like Bear Stearns’ time.  This means we still have some months left before the various governments point their mighty bazookas (the most-powerful of which is simply their mouths) at the market and get a “click” rather than a “whoosh!” and “boom!”

But that day is coming folks – make no mistake.  I see no evidence from either political party in the Sunday shows today that either accepts what happened and why – nor any responsibility.  Instead we have everyone pointing fingers claiming the “other guy” did it.

Well, go back and read the top of this Ticker.  The terms for avoiding the downgrade were clear, they were published, they were consistent, and they were given with four to six months of warning, reiterated several times.  Congress and President Obama both gave the finger to S&P.

That’s fine – but they gave the finger back, and they had every right to do so on the objective facts.

We either face facts and fix what’s broken or we will have another Lehman 2008 moment, and much sooner than you think.

Since I do not believe the infestation in Washington DC are capable of acting like adults, as demonstrated by the fact that they just proved their inability for the entire world to see, I suggest that you be prepared for what is, in my opinion, the inevitable outcome.

Well here it comes, although they didn’t say that up front…. or did they?

New York, August 02, 2011 — Moody’s Investors Service has confirmed the Aaa government bond rating of the United States following the raising of the statutory debt limit on August 2. The rating outlook is now negative.

OK, so you affirmed the rating.  But that we already knew.  The problem is here:

In assigning a negative outlook to the rating, Moody’s indicated, however, that there would be a risk of downgrade if (1) there is a weakening in fiscal discipline in the coming year;

What Congress did is not enough and the coming year is important, which means that waiting until after the election to make the difficult choices will not work.

(2) further fiscal consolidation measures are not adopted in 2013;

You know those promises Congress?  You better keep them (and we know you won’t.)

(3) the economic outlook deteriorates significantly;

We’re screwed. This is a foregone conclusion.  I wish it wasn’t, but it is.

or (4) there is an appreciable rise in the US government’s funding costs over and above what is currently expected.

We’ll probably get away with this, if for no other reason than The Fed will get involved (again.)

That’s 3 for 4 – the wrong way.

Buckle up.

The latest example of political hyperbole is that the U.S. Treasury is ready to default on its debt. An actual examination of the underlying facts is that the relative purchasing value of the currency has long ago swindled debt holder in U.S. Bonds of their promised returns. A default defined under this definition is part of the equation. Repudiation of the entire debt obligation is the real fear. Contrary to all the public scare tactics that the financial world will stop turning, the Federal Treasury has ample revenue to pay the interests on bonds and notes that come due. The essential issue is whether the new bond lenders are willing to roll over the debt that is coming due and keep the shell game going.

The late conservative journalist, Robert Novak’s favorite president was Calvin Coolidge, he is known for saying, The Business of America is Business.

The real statement comes from a speech by Calvin Coolidge called “The Press Under a Free Government” which was given before the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, D.C. on January 17, 1925. The quote is really: “After all, the chief business of the American people is business.” However, Coolidge goes on to say that, “Of course the accumulation of wealth cannot be justified as the chief end of existence.” He discusses journalism and the thought that the business interests of newspaper owners should not taint reporting. He continues, “American newspapers have seemed to me to be particularly representative of this practical idealism of our people.”

A seminal truth about governments is that they do not function as a business. Every commercial enterprise eventually needs to pay their bills, since limitless borrowing is not an option for lenders. Bankruptcy is a favorite technique for repudiating debt, just ask the General Motors bondholders. Every survivor of the 2008 meltdown knows the rules of the game are now a moving target.

The media invariably seeks to blame the Congress for bringing the country to the brink. Most narrow in on the Republican Tea party freshmen as unreasonable. Little criticism is directed towards the intransigent Democratic leader Senator Reid. The reporting by the press no longer mirrors the standards of 1925 journalism, and the government no longer represents the practical idealism of the people.

Compare the recent settlement of the National Football League lockout with the drama of the Beltway National Theater. Both purports to have a countrywide audience, but only the NFL has avid fans. The government maintains their league through fear and phony promises. Football plays a man’s sport by dedicated lovers of the game. Presidents, Senators and Congressmen prepare their playbook to defeat their opponents, the citizens that elect them to office. The NFL is a business rewarded because of fan support. The Feds are a systemic extortion racket that forces its edicts upon a depressed and financially depleted citizenry.

The reason why the NFL players and owners settled their disputes, agreed to a decade era of labor peace, and anticipated prosperity is based upon the business nature of the conference. The reality why the Federal Government refuses to end the culture of deficit spending is based upon the dictatorial appetites of egomaniacs that serve their financial masters and deceive the public in an endless cycle of staged elections. As long as the State ignores the intrinsic nature of business principles, the social government will grow the welfare dependent society, as a way to dominate their subjects.

Tragically, many people know more about the free agency signing in the NFL, than the political positions of their own representatives. No one should be surprised about this development. Government is the ultimate monopoly and does not depend upon a free market of choice. Officials see spending as growth. However, the bigger a bureaucracy becomes, the more the financial lifeblood of business prosperity diminishes.

The will to correct this core failure is nonexistent, within the federal despotic fraternity. Their talent lies in designing new transfer programs to crony colleagues and constituents, funded by taxpayer levies or inventive exotic debt instruments.

No, wonder why so many American have totally given up on the political system. Unfortunately, that withdrawal of consent alone does not eliminate the treachery of career government officials. The GOP is poised to compromise and accept a dramatic rise in the debt ceiling. Their explanation will offend the most serious and sincere reformers. How else can the incessant spending end, unless the credit card is taken away from the addicted shopaholic?

The formidable financial sage, Paul Craig Roberts uses a political argument, when he warns about the response Obama might use to defeat sound business practices, in his article; The Unintended Consequences of Debt Ceiling Intransigence.

“The US dollar could plummet in exchange value and lose its role as world reserve currency. The US would no longer be able to pay its oil bill in its own currency, and as its balance of payments is heavily in the red, the US has no foreign currencies with which to pay its oil import bill. Or its manufactured goods import bill, or any other bill.

We are talking about a crisis beyond anything the world has ever seen. Does anyone think that President Obama is going to just sit there while the power of the US collapses? He doesn’t have to do so. There are presidential directives and executive orders in place, put there by George W. Bush himself, that President Obama can invoke to declare a national emergency, suspend the debt ceiling limit, and continue to issue Treasury debt. This is exactly what would happen.

The consequences would be that the power of the purse would transfer from Congress to the President. It would be the end of the power of Congress. Congress, Republicans and Democrats alike, have already given away to the President Congress’ Constitutional right to decide whether the country goes to war. Now Congress would lose its power over debt, taxes, and the budget itself.”

Any sober reader should consider Roberts’ insights. Yet, what else can be done within the constitutional Federal system of separation of powers to stop the spending binge? The house of cards can no longer support the burden of the public financing through the fractional reserve fraud used by the Federal Reserve.

The alternative is for the Treasury to issue government bonds directly to the market. All interested paid to the banking elites that own and control the private Federal Reserve needs to take a thunderous haircut. This is the only solution to eliminate the curse of compound interest paid to a criminal cartel, which holds our country hostage.

The insane spending is unnecessary. No one who rationalizes that the federal budget is sustainable can be trusted. Anyone who refuses to cut and eliminate entire agencies is perpetuating an illegitimate bipartisan regime of coercive corruption.

The convoluted mechanics that will emerge to justify a higher debt limit will be just one more insult to the hard working citizens that conduct business on Main Street. The total disconnect of the government class from the most simple requirements of authentic wealth creation is at an all time high. The reason the Tea Party movement spontaneously erupted over the unbearable taxation demands demonstrates that common sense still lives in the minds and hearts of real Americans.

The socialistic mentality that relies on government to supply physiological reinforcement for their personal inadequacies and diminished mental capacities is no excuse for national betrayal. The Capitol Dome is the most distinctive landmark in this country. The weight of the burden from all government debt is undeniable. Even a mainstream newspaper like USA Today admits that the U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions.

“The government added $5.3 trillion in new financial obligations in 2010, largely for retirement programs such as Medicare and Social Security. That brings to a record $61.6 trillion the total of financial promises not paid for.

“The (federal) debt only tells us what the government owes to the public. It doesn’t take into account what’s owed to seniors, veterans and retired employees,” says accountant Sheila Weinberg, founder of the Institute for Truth in Accounting, a Chicago-based group that advocates better financial reporting. “Without accurate accounting, we can’t make good decisions.”

Isn’t that lack of financial reporting, let alone accountability, the forestay of the political class? Do you really think that a sensible leader in the Calvin Coolidge tradition can be elected today? America is no longer a country that conducts business. The international banksters, who peddled the debt drug to a spending addict, own the global empire. The globalists are stealing any wealth that remains in a country of junkies. The political pimps that pump you full of dependency are masters of the delusion. The overdose leads to a terminal condition. Endure the withdrawal shock now, before it is too late.

Get your own house in order. Learn how to do business without debt. There is no signing bonus in this masochistic league of the establishment’s lie and steal game. The only sport left is to cheer for an early repudiation of the illegitimate public debt.

SARTRE