FedUpUSA

Archive for the ‘Employment’ Category

In a shocking new interview, Donald Trump has gone farther than he ever has before in discussing a potential economic collapse in America.  Using phrases such as “you’re going to pay $25 for a loaf of bread pretty soon” and “we could end up being another Egypt”, Trump explained to Newsmax that he is incredibly concerned about the direction our economy is headed.  Whatever you may think of Donald Trump on a personal level, it is undeniable that he has been extremely successful in business.  As one of the most prominent businessmen in America, he is absolutely horrified about what is happening to this nation.  In fact, he is so disturbed about the direction that this country is heading that he is seriously considering running for president in 2012.  But whether he decides to run in 2012 or not, what Trump is now saying about the U.S. economy should be a huge wake up call for all of us.

Trump says that the U.S. government is broke, that all of our jobs are being shipped overseas, that other nations are heavily taking advantage of us and that the value of the U.S. dollar is being destroyed.  The following interview with Trump was originally posted on Newsmax and it is really worth watching….

Now, you may or may not think much of Donald Trump as a politician, but when a businessman of his caliber starts using apocalyptic language to describe where the U.S. economy is headed perhaps we should all pay attention.

The following are 12 key quotes that were pulled out of Trump’s new interview along with some facts and statistics that show that what Trump is saying is really happening.

#1 “If oil prices are allowed to inflate and keep inflating, if the dollar keeps going down in value, I think there’s a very distinct possibility that things could get worse.”

Donald Trump is exactly right – we are headed for big trouble if we continue to allow the Federal Reserve to pump hundreds of billions of new dollars into the system.  As I have written about previously, all of this new money will give us the illusion of short-term economic growth and it will pump up the stock market, but in the end all of the inflation the new money is gong to cause is going to be very painful.  Just look at how rapidly M1 has been skyrocketing over the last couple of years.  Is there any way that we are going to be able to avoid paying a very serious price for all of this reckless money printing?….

Already all of this money printing has had a very serious affect on world financial markets.  The price of agricultural commodities is skyrocketing and the price of oil has almost reached $100 a barrel once again.  The last time that the price of oil soared above $100 a barrel was in the early part of 2008, and we all remember the horrific financial collapse that followed in the fall of 2008.

#2 “….you’re going to pay $25 for a loaf of bread pretty soon. Look at what’s happening with our food prices. They’re going through the roof. We could end up being another Egypt. You could have riots in our streets also.”

The price of corn has risen 88 percent over the past year and the price of wheat has soared a whopping 114 percent over the past year.  Let’s hope that we don’t have to pay $25 for a loaf of bread in the United States any time soon, but in some areas of the world that is what it now feels like.

Approximately 3 billion people in the world today live on the equivalent of $2 a day or less, and most of that money ends up getting spent on food.  When food prices go up 10 or 20 percent in deeply impoverished areas of the globe, suddenly the lives of millions are threatened.  The riots that we have seen in Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia and other nations recently were not entirely caused by rising food prices, but they were certainly a big factor.

#3 “I think gold will go up as long as people don’t have confidence in our president and our country. And they don’t have confidence in our president.”

Investors run to gold and other precious metals when they don’t feel secure.  We saw that happen a lot in 2010.  As confidence in the paper currencies and the financial systems of the world has rapidly diminished, precious metals have become increasingly attractive.

In fact, the price of gold has doubled since the beginning of the economic downturn in 2007.  As the global financial situation continues to become more unstable, the demand for precious metals is likely only going to become more intense.

#4 “The banks have really let us down. Number one, they did some bad things and caused some bad problems. Number two, if you have something that you want to buy, like a house, they’re generally not there for you.”

Banks were given massive bailouts with the understanding that they would open up the vaults and start lending money to average Americans again.

Well, that has not happened.

In particular, it has become much, much harder to get a mortgage in the United States today.  Not that the big banks didn’t need to make changes to their lending practices, but things have gotten so tight now that it is choking the real estate market to death.

#5 “I see $3.50 for a gallon of gas for cars, and cars are lined up trying to get it and it’s $3.50. It’s a shame, a ridiculous shame.”

Our lack of a cohesive energy policy is a national disgrace.  There is no way in the world that a gallon of gas should be $3.50 a gallon.

The U.S. has massive reserves of oil and natural gas that it should be using.  In addition, the lack of progress on developing alternative energy sources in light of our sickening dependence on foreign oil is very puzzling.  We should be very far along towards solving our energy problems by this point.

Meanwhile, we keep pouring billions into the pockets of foreign oil barons every single month.  Unfortunately, Trump was exactly correct in the interview – if something is not done the price of gas is going to keep going higher.

#6 “I think the biggest threat is that our jobs are being stolen by other countries. We’re not going to have any jobs here pretty soon.”

Donal Trump is one of the few prominent leaders that is openly speaking the truth about the predatory economic practices of some of our “trading partners”.  Most of our politicians have just kept endlessly promising us that free trade is “good for us” even as tens of thousands of factories and millions upon millions of jobs have been shipped overseas.

Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs.

Yes, computers and robots have replaced a lot of manual labor today, but technology does not account for most of the decline we have seen in manufacturing.

n 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of all U.S. economic output.  In 2008, it represented only 11.5 percent.  Meanwhile, manufacturing in the “developing world” has absolutely exploded.

#7 “We’re like a whipping post for other countries. We are standing there and just being beaten by South Korea, by Mexico, by China, by India.”

Most Americans have absolutely no idea how lopsided many of our “trade agreements” actually are.  Other nations openly manipulate their currencies in order to keep their exports dirt cheap and we allow it.  Other nations openly subsidize their domestic industries that are directly competing with businesses in the United States and we don’t complain.  Other nations make it incredibly difficult for American companies to do business in their countries while we allow foreign corporations to come on in and do pretty much whatever they want here.

Then there are certain nations (such as China) that brazenly rip off trade secrets from foreign corporations time after time after time and never get penalized for it.

Meanwhile, our economy continues to bleed jobs at a staggering pace.  The number of net jobs gained by the U.S. economy during this past decade was smaller than during any other decade since World War 2.

Fortunately, more Americans than ever seem to be waking up and are realizing that globalism is causing many of these problems.  A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted last year discovered that 69 percent of Americans now believe that free trade agreements have cost America jobs.

#8 “All of our jobs are going to China. We’re rebuilding China and other places.”

China is doing great.  China is now the number one producer in the world of wind and solar power.  They now possess the fastest supercomputer on the entire globe.  China also now has the world’s fastest train and the world’s biggest high-speed rail network.

Most Americans don’t realize that China is literally kicking the crap out of us.

Back in 1998, the United States had 25 percent of the world’s high-tech export market and China had just 10 percent. Ten years later, the United States had less than 15 percent and China’s share had soared to 20 percent.

Every single month we buy about 4 times as much stuff from them as they buy from us.  Our trade deficit with China has ballooned to enormous proportions.  In fact, the U.S. trade deficit with China during this past August was more than 4,600 times larger than the U.S. trade deficit with China was for the entire year of 1985.

So when Donald Trump says that we are rebuilding China he is not joking around.

Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel of the University of Chicago is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040 if current trends continue.

Yes, that is how serious things have become.

#9 “We are a laughingstock throughout the world.”

Donald Trump has said on several occasions that his friends and business partners in China just laugh and laugh at us.  They can’t even believe what they are getting away with.

We have become an incompetent giant that is the butt of all the jokes.

According to Stanford University economics professor Ed Lazear, if the U.S. economy and the Chinese economy continue to grow at current rates, the average Chinese citizen will be wealthier than the average American citizen in just 30 years.

Our formerly great industrial cities are slowly becoming ghost towns.  The number of long-term unemployed Americans is at an all-time high.  Tens of millions of Americans can’t even survive without government assistance anymore.  The number of Americans on food stamps set a new all-time record every single month during 2010, and now well over 43 million Americans are enrolled in the program.

We really have become a joke.

#10 “The federal government has no money.”

Unfortunately, our federal government has continued to borrow and spend like there is no tomorrow.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. government will have the biggest budget deficit ever recorded (approximately 1.5 trillion dollars) this year.

So much for fiscal discipline, eh?

It is being projected that the U.S. national debt will increase by $150,000 per U.S. household between 2009 and 2021.

Do you have an extra $150,000 to contribute for your share?

By 2015 our national debt will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 trillion dollars.

It is the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world by far, and it is the gift that we are going to pass down to future generations of Americans.

If there are any future generations of Americans.

#11 “I hate what is happening to this country.”

We should all hate what is happening to this country.  Our economic guts are being ripped out, we are being abused by the rest of the world, America’s infrastructure is being sold off piece by piece, our federal government is drowning in debt, our state governments are drowning in debt and our local governments are drowning in debt.

The only way we can even keep going is to run around to the rest of the world and beg them to keep lending us more money.

The mainstream media keeps proclaiming that we are the greatest economy on earth, but the truth is that we are being transformed into a pathetic loser and our politicians are just standing there with their hands in their pockets letting it happen.

All red-blooded Americans should be horrified by what is happening to this nation.  We have been betrayed by corrupt and incompetent leaders.  As a nation, we have become fat, lazy and stupid.

Hopefully what Donald Trump and others are saying about a coming economic collapse will serve as a huge wake up call and the sleeping giant will arise once again.

If the sleeping giant does not arise, we are in a massive amount of trouble, because right now the road we are on is leading to the biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen.

The Economic Collapse

The Friday jobs report was significant for a variety of reasons but one key theme is that it shows the true fragility of the state of the economy.  Even though it was a net add of 39,000 jobs we need to remember that the nation needs to add roughly 150,000 jobs per month just to keep pace with population growth.  Many economists agree that an unemployment rate over 8 percent is felt by virtually everyone in the economy.  The average American is facing some of the most dramatic changes to our employment market in over a generation.  While the recession on paper has been over since summer of 2009 most Americans would agree that the economy is still in deep problems.  This is because most Americans would view a recovery with actual job growth.  Yet when we look at the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the aggregate production of the U.S. we are back and growing.  This dichotomy raises some troubling questions moving forward.  Do we need as many workers to grow?  GDP tells us that we don’t.

Let us look at the GDP chart first:

While it is clear that GDP contracted during the recession it is now moving back up and in record nominal territory.  As many banks are pulling in billions of dollars in profits some sectors of the economy seem healthier than they ever have been.  The deeper issue is that the Federal Reserve lends money to banks yet many of these banks simply chase the next best thing and this doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be good for the domestic economy.  So you have major S&P 500 companies making half their revenues overseas while adding wage pressure on domestic workers.  This is merely an observation of what is occurring.  It is hard to compete with this some may say but the fact that banks are leveraging the credit of the U.S. to invest in areas that hurt the domestic economy is something Americans will have to wrestle with in the coming decade.  If what banks are doing is bad for the domestic economy why allow them to borrow so cheaply from the central bank?

Let us take a look at the damage done in terms of employment:

The U.S. employment market is down by 7,400,000+ jobs from the peak and we’ve been adding more and more workers to the economy.  This has happened via population growth and the natural progression of people entering the work force.  The above chart is clear.  There has been no growth in terms of added jobs.  Yet going back to the first chart of GDP, we are now back to record levels in terms of our nation’s output.  In other words, we are producing even more on a GDP basis than we did at the peak employment level but with 7.4 million less workers.  The stance from banks is that this is an inevitable outcome of globalization and money will chase the lowest cost centers.  Yet this also applies with the Federal Reserve allowing banks to borrow money backed by the U.S. taxpayer and government and then adding no restrictions since these banks chase yields anywhere around the world even if it means hurting the domestic economy.  This is the longer chain and journey that money follows but these will quickly become political questions moving forward.  The fact that Ben Bernanke has now been on 60 Minutes twice in the last few months tells you the Fed is quickly trying to jump ahead and conduct PR operations.

The civilian population ratio is also at historically low levels:

This is a very troubling trend.  In this new economy we are having less and less workers producing more and more.  Yet this is counter to the essence of a strong American middle class and more reminiscent of countries where there is a strong upper-class and the large remainder of the population.  Income disparity in the U.S. is at all-time record highs and this trajectory has been moving forward for two decades now.  The question that many Americans will have to deal with is whether they are happy with this progression of events.  The banking system would like to put this out as some inevitable path going forward but it is not.

Take for example the Ireland bailout.  The main reason the Euro (and the world for that matter) is bailing out Ireland is to protect bondholders.  This was the crux of the U.S. bailouts as well.  But for Ireland, the best option would be to default since there is absolutely no way they can pay back their debts given their GDP.  I agree that this is no light decision but the bailout option is worse.  It is virtually impossible and saddles them with debt for years to come.  This is like someone who over paid for a home and simply has no way of meeting their obligations. The best option is to default, start new and hopefully do it right the second time around (i.e., Brazil comes to mind).  What these bailouts amount to is a prolonging of the inevitable since bank debt holders just don’t want to face the music but this causes sustained unemployment in the working and middle classes of these nations.

In the U.S. we already see this problem with long-term unemployment:

Nearly half of the unemployed are out of work by 6 months or more.  Studies have shown that the longer someone goes without stable work the harder it will be for them to ever get back on economic track.  Yet GDP growth signifies that the economy is growing.  So what then of this large base of unemployed?  Is this simply the new economic reality?  Unfortunately the above chart is counter to what many Americans envision as a strong middle class.  The language coming out from the banking sector is familiar to companies in the 1920s and the belief that there really is no need for a middle class.  That somehow a country is strong if we allow the strongest to manipulate politics and policy to benefit their entrenched needs.

These are challenging questions we face.  I don’t proclaim to have the answers here and you can see from the above charts that the complexities are deeper than merely a simple stump speech.  These are issues we will need to confront as a nation for the decade moving forward.  What I do know is that the current path is slowly eroding the middle class and this isn’t good for the majority in the country.

My Budget360

For middle class Americans, the new global economy has provided mountains of cheap products made in China, India and dozens of other nations, but it has also killed the goose that laid the golden egg.  Millions of American workers have been discovering that the price for all of those inexpensive foreign-made goodies is their jobs.  Now we have so many long-term unemployed workers in the United States that we are inventing new terms (such as “the 99ers”) to describe them.  Unemployment is on the rise again (we’ll get to the figures in a minute) and everyone seems perplexed at the continuing inability of the “greatest economy in the world” to provide jobs for everyone.  But the truth is that this has been coming for a long time.  The debt-fueled prosperity of the past couple of decades allowed us to live far beyond our means and provide very high levels of employment for a while, but now economic reality is setting in.  The millions of middle class jobs that have been shipped overseas are never coming back.  Unfortunately, the existence of a large class of chronically unemployed Americans that are struggling just to survive is going to quickly become “the new normal”.

This week the U.S. Labor Deparment announced that for the week ending August 14th, new applications for unemployment insurance benefits reached the half-million mark.  That was the first time since last November that the psychologically important 500,000 threshold had been hit.  Most economists had predicted that unemployment claims would actually decline, but instead they experienced their fourth increase in the past five weeks.

But the increase in new applications for unemployment benefits is only part of the story.  It is not such a bad thing to be unemployed if you can find another job in a couple of weeks or a couple of months.  But in 2010, there are millions of Americans that cannot seem to find a job no matter what they do month after month after month.

In fact, the number of Americans that have exhausted their state unemployment benefits and that are collecting long-term federal unemployment benefits has increased 60 percent over the past year.  The following is how a recent article on CNBC recently described the situation….

“Claimants under the Emergency Unemployment Compensation provision—who have exhausted their state benefits—surged 260,105 to 4,753,456 for the week ended July 31 (the data lags the weekly claims by two weeks). While that represents a weekly increase of 0.5 percent, the total is 60.5 percent higher than the 2009 figure of 2,961,457.”

So what will the figure be at this time next year?

6 million?

7 million?

And what happens if the U.S. Congress finally decides to cut off the long-term unemployment benefits at some point?

The truth is that things are getting really frightening out there.

“There’s a red flag being waved right now that says ‘Danger,’” Bloomberg quoted Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC as saying recently. “Growth is going to slow in the second half and we might face something a little more ominous than that.”

The reality is that there are not nearly enough jobs out there for everyone.  According to one recent survey, 28% of U.S. households have at least one member that is looking for a full-time job.

Just think about that.

Almost 30 percent of all U.S. homes have someone who is looking for a full-time job.

That is not just a problem.

That is a national crisis.

But it is not just those who are unemployed who are suffering.  The reality is that this economic downturn has hurt most of us in one way or another.  A recent Pew Research survey found that 55 percent of the U.S. labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part-time work since the recession began.

Millions of Americans are putting up with increased workloads, pay decreases and benefit cuts right now because the alternative is joining the hordes of jobless Americans that are fighting tooth and nail over the few jobs that are actually available. 

Once you lose your job in this economy there is no telling when you are going to be able to get another one.  In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.

Could you imagine being unemployed for 35 weeks?

The truth is that in 2010, it is employers that have all the power and all the leverage.

In fact, when you really analyze it, it is a wonder that companies are hiring new workers at all.  It is a massive pain in the rear end to hire a new worker in America today.  The thousands upon thousands of regulations that must be complied with, the big pile of forms that need to be filled out and the elaborate bookkeeping that must be maintained make hiring someone a major headache.  One top of that, tax contributions, benefit packages and health insurance premiums make each worker a very expensive proposition.

There is a reason why so many companies are trying to squeeze more out of the employees that they already have or are only hiring temporary employees right now.

But the biggest reason why there is such a lack of jobs is because millions upon millions of good jobs have been shipped overseas.  Globalism and “free trade” have put middle class American workers into a situation where they are in direct competition for jobs against the cheapest labor in the world.

Why in the world should U.S. companies hire American workers when they can hire very willing workers on the other side of the world who will do the same job for less than one-tenth the cost?

Those who once warned us about “the great sucking sound” that globalism would create were right, and the truth is that the U.S. has already been bleeding good jobs for years.  According to one analysis, the United States has lost 10.5 million jobs since 2007, and the truth is that unless something is done things are going to get even worse.

But what can get lost in all of these statistics is the very real pain that so many millions of Americans are now experiencing.

Losing a job and watching everything that you have worked for crumble can be extremely soul crushing.  In fact, this economy is pushing some Americans completely over the edge.

The following is an excerpt from an actual letter to U.S. Representative Anthony Weiner….

“My dad, S, killed himself March 16, 2009 because he ran out of money and could not find work. My whole family had been devastated by the economy. He was 61 years old and could not take it anymore. He could not figure out how to keep the electric on, buy food, or keep a roof over his head. A day before his electric was to be shut off, and 2 weeks away from eviction, my dad took the hardest walk of his life. He left a note on the dining room table for my sister and I. His suicide letter said ‘I love you. I had to do this. I ran out of money. I wish you both luck in your lives’. He left the door unlocked with the door key left in the lock. He carefully laid out two suits for us to pick from to bury him in.”

Could you imagine if that was your father?

As the economy continues to deteriorate, many more Americans are going to be pushed to the edge of despair.

Life is not about paying our bills or about the things that we own, but there is no denying the pain that comes when you run completely out of money and you feel totally helpless.

But nobody should ever give up.  There is always hope.  Things can always be turned around.

Unfortunately, we have entered a time when there are always going to be a large number of unemployed Americans because there are just not nearly enough jobs to go around.

Anyone who thought that we could merge American workers into a massive global labor pool and still be able to maintain our middle class lifestyles was living in fantasy land. 

No, the truth is that globalism has killed the goose that laid the golden egg and now tens of millions of Americans are going to pay the price.

The Economic Collapse

When they hear the word deficit, most Americans immediately think of the U.S. government budget deficit which is rapidly spiralling out of control.  But that is not the only deficit which is ripping the U.S. economy to shreds.  In fact, many economists commonly speak of the “twin deficits” that are destroying the U.S. financial system.  So what is the “other deficit” that they are referring to?  It is the trade deficit.  Every single month, we buy much more stuff from the rest of the world than they buy from us.  That means that every single month there is a massive outflow of wealth from the United States.  Every single day, America becomes just a little bit poorer as Americans continue to run out and fill up their shopping carts with cheap plastic crap from China and dozens of other emerging economies.  Not that trade is a bad thing.  Trade can actually be a very good thing.  But the gigantic trade imbalances that the United States has been running for years are absolutely bleeding us dry.  Unfortunately, our politicians have just stood idly by as each month we continue to transfer massive amounts of wealth out of the United States.

The U.S. Commerce Department recently announced that the U.S. trade deficit increased by 18.8 percent in June to $49.9 billion.  Most analysts had expected the figure to be somewhere around 41 to 43 billion dollars.

In the month of June, imports rose to approximately $200 billion while exports fell to about $150 billion.

So can we afford to have a net outflow of 50 billion dollars each and every month?

Of course not.

We had so much wealth as a nation that we could afford to do this for a while, but the reality is that if this keeps up the rest of the world will eventually drain us dry.

So just how dangerous is the trade deficit?  Well, world famous investor Warren Buffett once put it this way….

“The U.S trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil… Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them.”

But very few Americans talk about the trade deficit.

Why?

Number one, it is because our education system has become so dumbed down that most Americans (especially among the younger generations) do not even know what the trade deficit is.

Number two, most Americans are so obsessed with frivolous things such as American Idol, Dancing With The Stars, Lady Gaga and their favorite sports teams that they could care less about thinking about real issues.

But they should be thinking about foreign trade, because it is literally destroying the nation.

What we have done is we have allowed the monolithic predator corporations that dominate our economy to slowly but surely move their operations to countries such as China and India where labor costs less than a tenth of what it does here.  In the process, executives at those predator corporations are earning huge “performance bonuses” while millions of hard working middle class Americans are losing their jobs.

It is time to wake up.  Have you ever wondered why it is so hard to find a decent job out there right now?  Well, there is a good reason.  The giant predator corporations have decided that they don’t really need us anymore.

Once upon a time, great American companies provided great American jobs for great American workers.  We created the biggest middle class in the history of the world and great industrial cities like Detroit, Michigan were the envy of the world.

But have you been to Detroit lately?

One of the greatest cities in the United States has become a hellhole.  The mayor says that nearly half the people there are out of work.

So what happened?

Did the giant corporations who used to make stuff in Detroit stop making stuff?

No, they are still making lots of stuff.

They just aren’t making their stuff in Detroit anymore.

Now, the truth is that it is really easy to jump on Detroit.  It is a city that has been mismanaged for decades.  But Detroit is far from alone.

All throughout the “rust belt” you can find other Detroits.

At this point many of you may be thinking that people living in places like that should just move.

That may be good advice, but the truth is that what has happened to Detroit is going to be happening everywhere.  It is going to come to your own neighborhood soon enough.  The giant predator corporations are going to continue to try to outsource and offshore every job they can.

Your job may be next.

Perhaps you should start learning about the trade deficit.

Perhaps you should start asking your representatives about it.

Just look at what all of this “free trade” and “globalism” did to our trade deficit between 1991 and 2005…..

Are you troubled by that chart?

You should be.

The U.S. economy is bleeding and the top politicians from both political parties act as if they could really care less.

What do you think is going to happen if tens of billions of dollars continue to pour out of the United States month after month after month?

The economic prosperity that we have all been enjoying is not guaranteed to last forever.

The system of world trade that has developed over the past few decades has provided us with gigantic mountains of cheap plastic crap, but it is not a good system for America or for middle class American workers.

Someday we will look back in horror at how incredibly stupid it was to ship our manufacturing base, our jobs and our prosperity to China.   

But the American people have made their choices.  They allowed the politicians to convince them that NAFTA, GATT and the WTO would be wonderful things for Americans.

They didn’t listen to the warnings about what would ultimately happen to our jobs and our economy.

They didn’t take the time to get educated about foreign trade and the exploding trade deficit.

So now we all get to pay the price.

The Economic Collapse