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Archive for the ‘Gold’ Category

Still Report: Fort Knox (Airing 2/4/12 On History)

The Fort Knox Gold Scandal will be aired on the History Channel’s H2 channel Saturday, Feb. 4 at 22:00 EST or 21:00 at 21:00 CST.

 

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Praising the Golden Bull

Aaron answered them, “Take off the gold earrings that your wives, your sons, and your daughters are wearing, and bring them to me.  So all the people took off their earrings and brought them to Aaron.  He took what they handed him and made it into an idol cast in the shape of a calf, fashioning it with a tool.  Then they said, “These are your gods, O Israel, who brought you up out
of Egypt.”   –
   Exodus 32:2-4 (NIV)

 

It seems to me that in this day and age of economic/social/political uncertainty, more and more people are frightened and have started clamoring for something away from the Old System of our economic norm: principally fiat currency (i.e. money with no tangible assets backing it, but just the good faith and credit of the government).  These people are alarmed by the recent decline in monetary values and the specter of inflation and possibly hyper-inflation.  Increasingly, they use the examples of runaway inflation in Argentina in the 1990’s and Weimar Germany in the 1920’s to prove that fiat currency is inherently evil and unreliable.   So, in their fear they turn to a substance which they believe is indeed right and true, gold, in order to return us all to what we want: a bull market and good times.

While there are indeed many problems with the status quo, I firmly believe that a rush by the people to call for a resurrection of the “golden bull” of a gold standard in the United States may lead to inevitable ruin, just as it did for those who strayed in the Hebrew Bible.  As much as the gold-standard proponents tend to point to history, I too will take a cue from the pages of days gone by.  Following the establishment of the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. in 1913, the American people were promised economic stability and prosperity.  Instead, they underwent two recessions and The Great Depression within 25 years, all while under a Gold Standard.  The Panic of 1907 was instigated during a Gold Standard, as were recessions, depressions, and bank runs throughout the 1800’s in our country.

In times of antiquity, many countries can attribute rising economic periods and prosperity for the majority of their citizens while using fiat currencies.  The Romans (copper and bronze coins), England (tally sticks), and the American Colonies (Colonial Scrip) are but a few examples of economic prosperity and development under stable fiat currency systems, some lasting for centuries.

So, why the sudden push for a return to a Gold Standard?

I believe there are two reasons, primarily.  One, the average citizen today is not aware of the economic setbacks under gold standards in the past and is lulled and enticed by terms such as “solid,” “stable,” “real,” and “inherent” when describing gold’s value.  They often point to gold’s scarcity to highlight its inherent value to societies throughout history, stating that it will not lead to inflation or hyper-inflation.  However, I submit that it is specifically because of gold’s scarcity that it is a dangerous commodity to base one’s economic hopes.  Gold’s scarcity makes it easier to control and manipulate by a small number of powerful elites, which leads me to the second reason for the recent push for a gold standard: Central Banks.

While publicly central banks around the world appear to downplay the value of gold and its role in establishing a “stable” currency anytime in the near future, their actions seems to discredit their assertions (in recent Congressional testimony, Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke went so far as to say “No,” when asked if gold is money).  In the past decade most central banks around the world have turned from being net sellers of gold bullion to net buyers.  The largest single holder of gold bullion today is the International Monetary Fund (IMF, the central bank of central banks).  And there is substantial evidence to suggest that the gold thought to be in Fort Knox, Kentucky is no longer there and has been transferred to the control of central banks, out of the hands of the American people.

So, while the American people may run to their high priest of finance and cry for a new golden calf to be made so that they may worship at its feet, we should all remain vigilant of the need to steer away from anything that takes more power out of the hands of the American people and puts it into the hands of a select group of über-rich bankers.  Perhaps instead we should wait for the prophet, who right now is getting the divinely inspired word that yes, indeed, we can have economic prosperity, if only we will take the power to create money out of the hands of the big banks and put it back into the hands of We the People.  I think I see him coming down off the mountain now…

What we need instead of a Golden Calf is an end to the debt-standard of money creation.  Currently, when the American government issues more money, they do so by borrowing it into existence, issued out of nothing, by a small group of mega-banks.  And while that system may work for a while, it is inevitably doomed to collapse, as you can never get rid of debt by borrowing your way out.  Instead, we need to get back to what our government is constitutionally mandated to do: coin money and regulate the value thereof.  It’s been done before in America.  President Abraham Lincoln won the Civil War with debt-free currency (the “greenback”).  The colonies prospered under a debt-free fiat-money system.

If the American people are tired of economic uncertainty, depression, and stagnation, we should indeed consider the past – and not consider a gold standard.

By Torin Nelson

If you want a way out of the perpetual debt slavery, make your vote count this time.  Support real hope and change you CAN believe in:  Bill Still   Still2012.com

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Oh Dear (London Gold Exchange)

Uh….

Due to operational difficulties the London Gold Exchange is permanently closed for business.

Thanks to all of our members.

 

London Gold Exchange
International Digital Currency Trader

26/09/2011

Um, what might those “operational difficulties” be, if I may be so intrepid as to ask?  (I am assuming their site was not hacked, of course.)

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Where’s The Helicopter?

 

There are times I have to chuckle…

I know, I know, it’s just a correction (never mind that the blow-off was one of those things that I warned people about.)

But…. before you are utterly convinced, I think you should consider this chart, the “other” alleged sound money….

Roughly a 40% loss against the dollar in four months.  Why that’s damned impressive!  What would that be in annualized terms?  Let’s see… about 78% if my calculations are correct… without leverage. smiley

smiley

Ps: Can someone point to just one actual “printed” monetary unit among major currencies since this crap started in 2007?  Just one please.  Hint: Issuing debt is not “printing” – you have to pay that back, with interest, and screeching that “they will, they will!” when you can’t present any evidence that they did ought to be carefully contemplated before such a statement is made on the forum.  You know how much I love swinging the Thor Device around and the weekend is coming up. smiley

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"But It's All Money Printing!"

 

Such has been the siren song for the last few months on commodities in general.

Despite my repeated warnings that markets aren’t that simple, and that it has all been leverage – that is, cheap debt – that has powered them higher, nobody wanted to hear it.  “Gold is money.”  “Silver is money.”

Uh huh.

So are you going to tell me, my friends, that there has been an inflation and then deflation of roughly 20% – on the upward side in the last month or so, and on the downside in the last couple of days?

Gold is getting hit pretty good too:

Then, of course, there’s oil.

How about “Dr. Copper”?  What’s he saying about the economy?

“Cheap money” – that is, unlimited leverage – will drive markets higher.  For a while.  It creates speculative manias.  It creates the feeling of wealth.  It creates a “high”, much like an addictive drug.

But it is not wealth.  It is not prosperity.  And it is not sustainable.

The real economy, on the other hand, continues to suck.  Gas prices have reached the point of demand destruction.  It’s $3.96 for regular here today, although I’m sure with oil off $9 it’ll come in over the next few days.

GDP was soft as well.  And the jobless claims numbers today?  Horrible.  Then there’s all the “great news” over in Europe – Ireland, Greece, German production number misses and Trichet claiming “We have this guys.  Really, we have this.”  Uh huh.

Are markets going higher?  Based on what?  Expectations on a forward basis and general bullishness are ridiculously high.  Profit projections are for $100 on the SPX for the year.  Really?  With all the input cost pressures already in the cake and unable to come back out for six to nine months?

This was exactly what I was warning about last August when this pattern began to be evident – that those who chased and continued to pile in would eventually get their heads cut off.

Sure, if you just bought with cash back then you’re doing fine.  But far too many people did not.  They kept adding off their paper “profits” – margin debt is at extremely high levels, as people piled in more and more as prices rose.

Well, now there’s a problem and it’s especially bad if you’re in a levered instrument such as the futures markets.

You buy a contract that controls $50,000 of the underlying with a margin of $5,000.  The contract’s value goes up 10%.  You now have a 100% profit against your margin.  You take that and buy another contract.

What happens if the price goes back to the original level?  You’re in trouble, that’s what.

Not only is your original $5,000 margin “profit” gone but so is another $5,000, even though price just round-tripped up and then down!  That is, you’re now broke as your entire original stake has evaporated into the ether, even though prices are right back to where they were.

If you think this isn’t common, you’re very wrong.  It is.  Traders blow up in this fashion all the time.  It’s idiotic, but it happens on virtually every prolonged move where leverage becomes the gist of the action.  It happened to real estate speculators during the real estate bubble, it happened to tech speculators during the 1990s and now it’s happening again.

Might this “stop” at some point before the market really unwinds?  It might.  But there’s no guarantee that it will.  In fact, there’s plenty of reason to believe it won’t – that margin calls will in fact beget more margin calls.

In 2008, these sorts of margin-unwind trades are what fostered the instability that ultimately blew up in everyone’s face.  The systemic imbalances in the system are worse now than they were in early 2008, and the policy response available to attempt to stop a collapse are nearly all spent.

Go ahead folks, buy the dip.  It’s been a good trade for the last year or so, especially from August onward.

Just be aware that you’re buying into a margin liquidation, and if the “Cheap Money” disappears, you’re going to be dealing with a lot of sleepless nights.

The Market-Ticker

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CFTC Warns, GOLD/SILVER Spikes?

 

CFTC Warns, GOLD/SILVER Spikes?

Posted by Karl Denninger

Hmmmm….

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a warning to the market on Friday to remind participants that speculative trading limits apply throughout the trading day as well as at the end of trading.

Timestamp, 11:15 Central time

Now let’s look at two charts.

You don’t think that GOLD was being speculatively shorted beyond intraday position limits, do you?  That oval, by the way, is right when the announcement was made.

Or shall we look at SILVER?

Naw, there’s no evidence that “someone” (or a few someones) were breaking the law here, is there?

Nobody would ever close out unlawfully-held shorts after being warned by the CFTC, would they?

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