I mean that in all seriousness.  Sometimes something meant to be funny….really isn’t.

Straight Talk – Stock Market by senatork

Something ominous is happening on Wall Street, but nobody has noticed.

The insiders have vanished.

Chief executives. Board members.

The head honchos. The people who know.

Just a few weeks ago, they were out in force, buying up shares in their own companies with both hands.

No longer. They’ve disappeared. Almost overnight.

“They’ve stopped buying,” says Charles Biderman, the chief executive of stock market research firm TrimTabs, which tracks the data. “Insiders aren’t buying this rally.”

Insider stock purchases, which surged above $100 million a day in the market slump last month, have now collapsed to just $13 million a day.

Meanwhile the ratio of insider sales to purchases has skyrocketed. Today insiders are dumping $7 in stock for each $1 that (other) insiders are buying. That’s a worrying ratio. Six weeks ago the amounts of purchases and sales were about equal.

It’s the kind of news that should give investors pause.

What insiders do with their own money is one of the stock market’s best barometers.

After all, who better than company executives know their own order books? Who knows the conditions in their industry better?

You find insiders typically buying heavily at the market lows — they did in 1987, in 1998, and they did during the financial crisis in 2008-9.

(You also typically find them cashing out big-time at the peak).

Read the rest at Market Watch

Middle class retirement now largely a postcard fantasy – How Wall Street fabricated a buy and hold fairytale and jumped ship with taxpayer golden parachutes.  Did baby boomers think about who they would be selling those 401k and pension stocks to?

The days of dreaming about long days playing golf on a green course and taking luxurious cruises around the world are appearing more and more like a foggy memory for those in the middle class planning for retirement.  As Wall Street bankers and hedge fund managers rob the public blind, the mission statement sold to baby boomers is starting to become a large bait and switch catchy enough to make it on a Hallmark card.  For decades Wall Street begged and lured the public in either directly or through pension funds into their web of easy money.  Save $100 a month and you’ll retire a millionaire!  As it turns out, the golden parachute was only available to a tiny fraction of the population while the oligarchy in the financial sector offloads their toxic bets onto the taxpayers struggling balance sheet.  The end game?  No retirement.  At least no retirement like those plastered on glossy mutual fund brochures.  What the Wall Street banking charlatans failed to tell you is that you eventually need to sell those stocks to use the money for real world spending.  What they also failed to mention is that the baby boomer generation is now going to sell into unrelenting headwinds of demographics bringing on a younger and poorer generation to purchase their stocks.  Of course Social Security is in the crosshairs of the financial elite since they already secured their financial piece of the pie.  You know things are bad when the Federal Reserve is stating that stocks are not exactly a winners bet in the years going forward.

Retirement becoming more of a postcard fantasy

The middle class has been pillaged and ransacked by financial thievery for decades.  The debt bubble and mass delusion is now imploding.  The graft and con games taking place in the financial sector would be comical if they weren’t so real and economically tragic.  The Federal Reserve has given covert loans to big banks while big banks publicly stating all was well.  The Federal Reserve has grown their balance sheet to a stunning $2.8+ trillion of questionable assets and other junk with little redeemable market value.  It would have a hard time selling these items on eBay let alone the natural marketplace.  There is no easier way to make a profit than stealing from the taxpayer.  Of course the problems in the system are coming at the expense of the working and middle class.  For those who bought into the Wall Street mantra of buy and hold, making a profit has gotten much harder:

This is fascinating data to look at.  This decade has been horrible for stocks.  The S&P 500 stands today where it did in 1998.  The massive stock volatility is simply a reflection of the problems deep in our financial system.  The above chart examines P/E ratios over time.  Really fascinating information but the Fed study finds that P/E ratios are likely to go lower because of demographic shifts and also the reality that we have a lower wage employment force dominating our economy.  The latest decade is a reflection of the bubble era machinery that has hoisted up the financial sector into an untouchable corner yet middle class Americans have taken it squarely in their stock portfolios.  Why?  Because Wall Street has been preaching buy and hold as if it were some patriotic mission but many of these hedge funds and banking managers have placed bets that openly aim against American middle class success.  In fact, some have made bets on flat out American failure and have made billions of dollars with lower tax rates that are given to hedge funds.

The stock market casino

The stock market has been on a wild ride for well over a decade:

Source:  Mish Global Economic Analysis Blog

Read the rest at My Budget 360

Here’s the case for dumping stocks and not touching them for at least two years.

The case for “buying and holding” stocks boils down to four words:  don’t fight the Fed. Forget moral hazard and all the fancy stuff; the reason to load the truck with stocks is that the Fed is invincible, and its mighty machinery of manipulation can drive stocks higher no matter what else is happening.

Put another way: when the Fed succeeds in driving the dollar to near-zero, the value of stocks will be near-infinite.

The case to dump stocks now and not even look at the market for two years is based not on worship of the Federal Reserve’s infinite wisdom and power but on the charts.The abject, pathetic, remarkably complete failure of QE2 has driven a stake  through the heart of the Fed’s political power and its reputation for wisdom; it has been revealed as a clueless cabal, basing policy on textbook models of what “should happen when we do this.” Alas, real life doesn’t follow moldy old PhD theses, and it doesn’t worship the Fed or listen to the cargo-cult incantations of the Keynesians.

Financialization anf globalization have run their course, along with cheap abundant energy. As the giant 17-year bubble in stocks deflates, those entrusting their money with Wall Street face stupendous risk and potentially massive losses.  (Shameless pitch alert.) My new book An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times is all about withdrawing your trust from Wall Street and investing your capital in alternatives such as localized, productive assets which do not depend on financialization or globalization for their value or income streams. (It’s currently #5 in the Kindle Store’s investing category, and #9 in Amazon’s Investing Bestsellers category, so there’s some interest in the topic.) You can read the first chapter and other stuff here.

Let’s let the charts speak for themselves, shall we?

Here is the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2011: note the giant double top, and the gigantic bubble which began inflating circa 1994 as financialization and globalization began their long domination of the economy.

Only massive government intervention reinflated the bubble in 2009-11, and now gravity is reasserting itself.  The trendline projects to the next low around 600, while  the bubble-retrace projects to around 450.

Since volume is the weapon of the Bull, let’s check in on volume: oops, it’s been dropping since 2009. Looks like those in the know have been selling into strength bigtime.

Courtesy of the always insightful Doug Short, here is Doug’s overlay of the current market and two previous stock market bubbles, the Dow 1929 and the Nikkei 1989.Note that the market was rolling over last August, but the Fed launched QE2 and added a year to the “recovery.”  Can they extend it another year? based on their dwindling political capital, the answer is “unlikely.”

Interestingly, the low hit by previous bubbles corresponds rather closely with cycle-seer Martin Armstrong’s turn date of July, 2013. (He also pegs August 2014 and September 2015 as turn dates as well.)

This overlay of the 2002 decline and the current market also offers food for thought.As in, “this sucker’s going down.”

Again courtesy of Doug Short, the Q Ratio, which is at highs not seen since the last market top.

Since the U.S. dollar and the SPX have been on a see-saw for years, it’s interesting to compare the DXY’s recent decline with its action back in the summer of 2008, just before the global financial Ponzi scheme imploded.

And to state the Bullish case, here’s the Fed’s pet parrot:

Looks like they’ll need to teach it another line.

Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds

Systemic causes of global financial instability include the “normalcy bias,” super-low interest rates, central-bank induced inflation and loss of faith in institutions.

Some causal factors of global financial instability are mental constructs, others are pernicious policies. Money is the ultimate mental construct, of course; it is our faith in the promises issued by central banks and governments that gives paper money its value.

The same can be said of markets: it is our faith in their transparency which makes them “free markets.” Once we discern that a market is manipulated, then we lose trust in it and exit that market for good.

The most pernicious policy is central-bank engineered inflation, which rewards debtors and punishes capital accumulation, a.k.a. savings. Push these incentives to debt hard and long enough, and you get a crippled, top-heavy economy like the U.S. economy, crushed by debts so staggering that the only way to service the debt is to borrow more money at insanely low rates of interest.

This is an excerpt from my new book An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times which has just been issued in Kindle ebook format; a print edition will follow in September. (You can read the ebook now on any computer, smart phone, iPad, etc.–see below.The 30% discount expires tonight.)

Here are six systemic causes of global financial instability. (Here is yesterday’s list: The Coming Global Instability, Part I.)

1) The human mind has a number of default settings which have proven advantageous as “short cuts” in most circumstances, one of which is called “the normalcy bias.”  As events spiral out of control and dangers rise exponentially, our tendency is to underestimate the risks and potential losses. As long as a few shreds of normalcy remain intact, we view these as evidence that “it’s really not so bad.”

Most of the time, this trait pays off as most systems are self-correcting and catastrophe is avoided. But when self-reinforcing negative trends take hold, this complacency is ultimately self-destructive.

2) The financial Status Quo, already discredited in the eyes of most well-informed observers, will eventually lose all credibility, and global stock markets will languish as participants abandon them.

If this sounds farfetched, recall that 70% of all shares traded in the U.S. stock market are exchanged in opaque “dark pools” operated by Wall Street and “too big to fail” banks, and high-frequency trading executed by “black box” algorithms account for the majority of the remaining 30% of publicly traded shares.  This means that some 90% of stock market activity is hidden from non-insider investors.

The idea that we can rely on opaque markets for our financial security will increasingly be discredited.  As  heavy-handed interventions fail to restore stability, public faith in these institutions will decline. This delegitimization will further destabilize global markets, and those who accepted the implicit guarantees of stability, transparency and liquidity may find instead that their financial security has vanished in a cloud of “impossible” disruptions and dislocations.

This loss of faith is already evident.  As the U.S. stock market doubled from its March 2009 lows, U.S. households withdrew hundreds of billions of dollars from domestic equity mutual funds, and quadrupled their holdings of “safe” U.S. Treasury bonds.  If you look at a 10-year chart of volume in U.S. stocks, you will see a steady erosion of participation in the stock market.  These are the actions of people who have lost faith in the stock market, the nation’s financial and political institutions and the official “story” of permanently rising prosperity.

Once trust is lost, it cannot be won back easily or quickly.

As the financial authorities attempt to keep the system from crumbling beneath their feet, they will take increasingly drastic actions as markets destabilize: investment rules that were presumed to be eternal will be changed overnight, without warning, and then changed again. Decades of low volatility that encouraged people to buy long-term bonds, annuities and dividend-paying stocks will be upended by unprecedented financial and political volatility.  Seemingly permanent low interest rates that lured investors to pile into high-risk gambles will suddenly leap up, wiping out gamblers who weren’t even aware they were playing a game rigged in favor of the “house.”

Such expectations are well-grounded in history. Most investors have forgotten that the U.S. stock market was summarily closed for months during World War I, and that in 1933, the Federal government seized “hoarded” privately held gold.  These actions were, at the time, considered necessary and prudent by the authorities. More recently, in 2008 speculating that banking stocks would decline (that is, shorting banking stocks) was summarily banned. The rules governing the market were changed to defend the Status Quo, and speculation was only allowed if it flowed in one direction—the one favored by the financial authorities.

3) Stripped of mumbo-jumbo, central banks and States have only two buttons to push: Keynesian fiscal stimulus, i.e. governments borrowing and spending vast sums in an effort to stimulate demand and the “animal spirits” that drive private borrowing, and monetary easing, i.e. lowering interest rates to near-zero, and printing or creating credit electronically to flood the economy with “liquid,” easy-to-borrow money.

Central banks and States are hitting these two buttons like frenzied laboratory rats, but the machine is out of cocaine-laced pellets.  In effect, central banks and Central States are both addicted to exponential expansion of credit, intervention and Central State borrowing and spending. Each is only exacerbating the system’s risks, and as the authorities ratchet up these interventions to ever-higher levels, they’re insuring an even greater collapse.

There is a pernicious agenda at work in setting interest rates near zero while  boosting money supply and deficit spending to create inflation. By robbing savers of any return on their savings and sparking “sustainable, orderly” inflation of around 4%, central banks are in effect transferring 4% from the owners of cash to reduce the debt of the central bank/State by this same amount every year.  In a decade of this monetary scheme, savers’ wealth will be reduced by roughly 50% while the debt created by the central bank/State will decline by 50%.

“Purchasing power” is a concept while helps us understand the results of low interest rates and “politically benign” inflation: the owner of cash will find their money buys only half of what it did ten years before, while the government debt has also fallen in half.  The net result of this slight-of-hand is that government debt that was crushing becomes manageable again as savers’ wealth was invisibly transferred via carefully engineered inflation.

The key phrase in this sub rosa agenda of transferring private wealth to reduce government/central bank debt is “politically benign:” since the loss of wealth and the rise in consumer prices is “only” 4% a year, the consequences are not severe enough to trigger political resistance.  Financial and political authorities know that people quickly habituate to an “orderly” reduction in wealth and an “orderly” inflation in prices; that is, this erosion of purchasing power soon becomes “the new normal” and people plan around it.

The purpose of this central bank/State agenda is to avoid the two endgames that would destabilize the Status Quo: outright default on the Status Quo’s staggering debts, and hyperinflation, or loss of faith in a paper (fiat) currency. Either of these events would destroy the credit markets that form the foundation of the global economy.

We can see how successful this strategy of engineering orderly, “normal” inflation has been: 30 years ago, a Federal debt of $15 trillion would have unimaginable. Today, it is accepted as “sustainable” because it will never be paid back in today’s dollars, and low interest rates insure that the carrying costs of that debt remains small enough that no other government spending need be sacrificed to pay the annual interest.

This agenda has worked like magic for the past 30 years, but beneath the apparent success, the foundations of the current system– cheap energy, globalization, financialization, monetary expansion, fiscal stimulus, opaque markets and constant State/central bank intervention–are all eroding. As they dissolve then so too will the Status Quo’s implicit promises of permanent stability, low interest rates and limitless growth.

The point here that the levels of intervention required to create inflation in a  deflationary, deleveraging-of-debt era are not just stupendous– they must ratchet up to ever higher levels to maintain superficial stability as the system becomes increasingly precarious.  Ironically, increasing the heavy-handed centralized interventions only  increases the system’s precariousness—the exact opposite of the Central Planners’ intentions. This is the result of trying to manage non-linear systems with linear-system tools: all that manipulation can achieve is to extend surface stability at the cost of a more severe system crash later on.

4) The investment world is keen on probabilities as reliable guides to the future. But low-probability events occur with remarkable regularity, so it’s prudent not to put too much faith in statistical or probabilistic reassurances. All such models are based on the idea that the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. But if the thesis that the next 20 years will necessarily be very different from the previous 60 years, then this faith that the recent past offers a roadmap of the future is dangerously misleading.

5) The uneven, unpredictable process of destabilization and devolution will play out over many years as periods of apparent stability are punctuated by the re-emergence of crises which were supposedly resolved in the previous cycle of central bank/government intervention. Every era of stability will be less enduring than the last, and come to rest at a lower level of security and prosperity than the last. Every intervention will be larger, more desperate and more intrusive than the last, and much less effective.

6) Periods of creative destruction are inherent to Capitalism, indeed, essential  to its long-term success. Just as we cannot fool Mother Nature for long–for example, by reckoning we can eliminate forest fires–we cannot manipulate the global economy to eliminate creative destruction.  All the unprecedented efforts of central financial authorities to eliminate risk and instability are simply piling up more deadwood in an already tinderbox forest.

Financial risk is like water in a closed system: it cannot be compressed. As pressure mounts, the risk builds up and eventually escapes, often through whatever part of the system was considered “safe.”

Periods of great transition in which existing systems are consumed by creative destruction and a new paradigm emerges offer great opportunities as well as great risks.

If I had to summarize this book in a few sentences, I would say this: Money is a  tool; make it work for you. Don’t invest in Wall Street’s false promises, invest  with an unblinking eye on systemic risk. Invest in your own life and in the lives of others. This book explores how to do just that.

Of Two Minds

Charles Hugh Smith’s new book An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times is available in Kindle ebook format.

Bank of America may be about to part with more money than it has earned since 2008 in what will soon be the biggest financial settlement in the industry to date According to the WSJ, the Charlotte, NC-based bank is preparing to pay $8.5 billion to settle mortgage (mis)representation claims (aka the Mortgage putback issue) brought on by such high profile figures as BlackRock, Pimco, MetLife and, of course, the Federal Reserve, previously discussed on Zero Hedge. “A deal would end a nine-month fight with a group of 22 investors that hold more than $56 billion in mortgage-backed securities at the center of the dispute, including giant money manager BlackRock Inc., insurer MetLife Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.” Keep in mind that this is actually not good news for the bank, contrary to what the company’s stock is doing after hours, as this still keeps the company exposed to a multitude of other rep and warranty litigation (which will now be largely underreserved), not to mention fraudclosure issues, which are totally unrelated, and which will plague the bank for years and years. Lastly, BAC is largley underreserved (see below) for a settlement of this size which means its Tier 1 capital ratio will likely be impacted due to a major outflow of cash.

From the WSJ:

The deal could embolden mutual-fund managers, insurance companies and investment partnerships to go after similar settlements with other major U.S. banks, arguing that billions in loans scooped up before the U.S. housing collapse didn’t meet sellers’ promises or were improperly managed. Most vulnerable would be Wells Fargo & Co and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which along with Bank of America collect loan payments on about half of all outstanding U.S. mortgages.

The dispute between Bank of America and the mortgage investors began last fall when they alleged that securities they bought before the financial crisis from Countrywide Financial Corp. were composed of loans that didn’t meet sellers’ promises about the quality of the borrowers or the collateral.

While it is still very much unclear what the terms of the settlement are, one thing is certain: BofA acquisition of Countrywide for $4 billion is rapidly becoming the worst purchase in the history of M&A. Luckily, Angelo “Agent Orange” Mozillo, has a permanent get out of jail card. One wonders just what dirty secrets old Angelo know about the housing market (or regulators’ sexual lifestyles) that not one regulatory agency or DA office is willing to go after him?

And, as often happens, we were quite correct when we speculated back in January that Bank of America is woefully underreserved for this development:

Can You Spell U-N-D-E-R-R-E-S-E-R-V-E-D? If Not, Here Is A Visualization Aid

Following today’s news of an imminent lawsuit to be filed against Bank of America by such entities as the New York Fed (which, by the way, it had to do, and not voluntarily, but merely as a function of its fiduciary duty to taxpayers through its Maiden Lane holdings, managed, conveniently enough, by Bank of America minority holding BlackRock) everyone promptly has taken a quick look back at the bank’s earnings presentation, and especially one little piece of data: the putback reserve. Taking a quick look a page 23 on the pdf we read: “3Q10 reps and warranties provision of $872M is $376M lower than 2Q10, as the current quarter included an increase in expected repurchases from GSEs while 2Q10 included additional provision for monolines.” So how does this stack up relative to the $47 billion in putback demands by such legal “dilettantes” as Bill Gross, Bill Dudley and Larry Fink? We have created the chart below to assist in that particular question. We are also confident that with each passing day we will have to add to the red-shaded area as more and more putback lawsuits come out of the woodwork. And as to where the deficiency amount will have to be funded from? Think cold, hard cash. The same cash that until recently would have been on the “sidelines.”

ZeroHedge

Today, millions of American families are extremely stressed out because they are working as hard as they can and yet they find at the end of the month they still haven’t been able to pay all of the bills.  Unfortunately, things are only going to get rougher in the years ahead.  The U.S. government has reached a terminal phase of the debt spiral that it is trapped in, and the only way to keep the system going is to print more money, borrow more money and spend more money.  But won’t this cause horrible inflation eventually?  Of course it will.  That is why so many people around the world have so loudly denounced “quantitative easing 2″.  The Federal Reserve is just creating hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air and is chucking all of this money into the system in a desperate attempt to get it moving again.  This is also why the Tea Party movement is so angry about the record amounts of government debt that are being piled up.  When the U.S. government goes into more debt, it creates more dollars.  As the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government flood the system with new dollars, it means that there are now more dollars chasing roughly the same number of goods and services, and that is a recipe for inflation.

Fortunately (or unfortunately, however you want to look at it), most of this new money is trapped in the financial markets right now.  The first people that get their hands on all of this new money are banks, financial institutions and the folks down on Wall Street and right now they are hoarding much of it and much of it is going to pump up the stock market.

That is one reason why we saw such a tremendous bubble in commodities in 2010.  It is also a key reason why we have seen such a stock market “recovery”.

But eventually all of this new money is going to get into the hands of average U.S. consumers and it is going to start pushing the price of everything up.

Ronald Reagan once said that inflation is “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hit man.”  Ron Paul has called inflation a “hidden tax” on all of us, and that is exactly what it is.  All of the paper money that we are storing in the banks is losing a little bit of value every single day.  Over long periods of time, this loss of value becomes absolutely massive.  For example, did you know that the U.S. dollar has lost over 95 percent of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913?

Unfortunately, as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government continue to flood the system with new dollars in a desperate attempt to stimulate the economy, inflation is only going to get worse and worse and worse.

So enjoy the relatively tame inflation that we are enjoying for now.  The official U.S. government inflation rate has been hovering around 1 percent or so, but everyone knows that the official inflation rate is an absolute joke.  The government pulls different categories in and out of the inflation rate almost at will in an attempt to keep the numbers low.

One recent study that analyzed price movement of 86 products in Wal-Mart stores found that the “real” rate of inflation was approximately twice the “official” rate reported by the U.S. government.

Others are convinced that the official rate of inflation is even higher than that.  For example, John Williams of ShadowStats.com has closely studied inflation in the U.S. and he believes that it is currently hovering somewhere around 5 percent.

However, John Williams does not believe that inflation is going to stay at 5 percent for much longer.  He recently released a “Hyperinflation Special Report” for 2010 that everyone needs to read.  Personally, I do not agree with all of his conclusions and I do not believe that things are going to happen quite as quickly as he is projecting, but his overall analysis is sound.

The truth is that our financial system has now reached a terminal phase.  Just look at the chart below.  Really look at it.  How can any financial system survive debt that is rising this fast?  The printing and borrowing of money continues to spiral out of control with no end in sight.  It is hard to imagine any scenario in which we can even achieve a “soft landing”.  One way or another, this exploding debt is going to take us down…..

So are the politicians sorry that they have saddled us with all of this debt?

Well, just the other day Nancy Pelosi was directly asked this question and the following was her response….

“No, we have no regrets.”

In fact there are quite a few politicians running around in Washington D.C. that are still convinced “that deficits don’t matter” and that all this debt will never catch up with us.

Well, hold on to your hats, because this is going to be the decade when all of this debt really does start to catch up with us.

One of the ways that we are going to feel the pain is through inflation.

In the months and years ahead, wages will remain relatively stable and government entitlement payments will not increase much while prices for the basic things that American families need go through the roof.

Already we are starting to see some troubling signs of inflation.  In 2010, the price of almost every major agricultural commodity you can name shot up dramatically.  We are starting to see these price increases filter into the supermarket.  Some companies are trying to hide these price increases by shrinking package sizes.

Have you noticed this yet?  Have any of the packages that you buy regularly seemed to shrink in recent months?

Sadly, it looks like food prices are headed even higher.  According to a recent report by Reuters, world food prices hit an all-time record high in December….

World food prices rose to a record in December on higher sugar, grain and oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008 that sparked deadly riots from Haiti to Egypt.

So what are you and your family going to do if a worldwide food shortage pushes food prices up significantly?

Another place where American families are really going to start feeling the pain is at the gas pump.

Do you remember back in October when I warned you that 100 dollar oil is coming?

Well, the price of Brent crude reached 95 dollars a barrel for the first time in almost two years on Monday.

Unfortunately, there are many who now believe that the price of oil is going to go a lot higher than that.

John Hofmeister, the former president of Shell Oil, believes that American consumers will likely be paying 5 dollars for a gallon of gas by the time 2012 rolls around.

So is your employer going to be paying you much more to keep up with rising gas prices?

Of course not.

And you know what?

When the price of oil rises, it affects the price of almost everything else in the stores, because nearly everything has to be transported in one way or another.

So why is the price of oil going up so much?  Well, of course there are speculators and of course the price of oil is highly manipulated, but one of the big reasons why oil is going up is because the U.S. dollar is losing value.

The cost of other basics is going up as well.  Have your health insurance premiums gone up lately?  All over the country, horrific health insurance premium increases are being reported.

Quite a few of the readers of this column have stated that they simply cannot afford health insurance anymore and so they are now doing without it.  There are millions of Americans that refuse to go to a hospital because there is no way they can pay for health insurance and there is no way they can pay the ridiculous fees charged by our hospitals today.

Sadly, in the months and years to come millions more working American families will be pushed into poverty-like conditions by rising inflation.

Already we are seeing huge numbers of American families that are working as hard as they can not being able to afford the basics.

A year-end survey conducted by Pew Research found the following….

*51% of Americans say that it is difficult to afford health care.

*48% of Americans say that it is difficult to pay their home heating and electric bills.

*29% of Americans say that it is difficult to afford food.

Those numbers should be quite sobering for us all – especially considering the fact that jobs are becoming very difficult to get.

According to the same Pew Research study, a staggering 46 percent of all Americans say that someone in their household has been without a job and looking for work at some point during the past year.

It can be really depressing to search for a decent job month after month after month when there doesn’t seem to be any out there.

The truth is that there are 7 million less middle class jobs in America today than there were just a decade ago.

So if even one person if your family has a decent job you should consider yourself to be very fortunate.

But sadly even families where everyone is working are going to continue to be stretched further and further financially as rapidly increasing inflation steals our purchasing power a little bit more every single day.

The “good times” are rapidly coming to an end.  The greatest debt-fueled party in the history of the world is wrapping up and you should enjoy it while you still can, because the years ahead are just going to be brutal.

The Economic Collapse

Many Americans live precariously close to the edge of financial insolvency flirting with economic disaster daily.  If you casually browse mainstream articles and watch any amount of television you would think that the US still had a vibrant and strong middle class.  When we pull back the covers on the current financial situation we realize that many Americans are merely getting by and many would like to live in some 1984 Orwellian fantasy world where suddenly things are back to financial equilibrium.  43 million Americans are depending on government food assistance to get by.  But many more millions are merely living paycheck to paycheck hidden in the cellar of the headlines.  1 out of 3 Americans has zero in any retirement account (not one slowly eroding dollar).  Half of Americans have $2,000 or less which puts them one month away from needing government assistance.  With the volatile job market and turbulent Wall Street middle class Americans are feeling the once prided stability being slowly washed away.  Let us examine how retirement is now becoming more of a fantasy for many Americans.

Many Americans especially young adults realize that saving large amounts of money is a key to a sustainable retirement:

Over 84 percent of 18 to 29 year olds surveyed feel they need at least $1 million saved up in order to stop working some day.  60 percent of those 30 and older feel that they will also need $1 million saved up.  Yet the actual figures are somewhat disturbing in contrast to the perceptions of many:

Source:  Census

The median retirement account for US households is $2,000.  This is why the vast majority of retirees depend on Social Security as their primary source of funds in old age even though Social Security was never designed to be a long term pension system.  You’ll notice that the average retirement account is closer to $50,000 a year but this is heavily skewed by the top 1 percent that keep most of their funds in stock wealth.

The reason retirement is slipping through the fingers of many like sand is the disjointed income equality in the country that has grown in the last decade.  If we look at income growth it has been heavily tilted at the top:

Source: Census, Chart: Wikipedia

There has been virtually no real income growth for most Americans.  The real significant wage growth over the last 50 years has occurred at the very top 10 percent of income earners in the country with this inequality accelerating in the last bubble decade.  What is more important is that 75 percent of Americans largely depend on a job as a primary source of income which seems rather obvious:

Source:  Federal Reserve

If you examine the chart closely, it is only the top 10 percent that really benefit from a buoyant and thriving stock market.  As we have mentioned earlier 1 out of 3 Americans has zero, nada, or zilch in their retirement account.  The movement of the stock market is like watching the score of a football game where the outcome means nothing to the individual.  Yet the problem is that Wall Street has taken the one item that was stable like a rock for Americans, housing and turned it into another commodity to be gambled and speculated against.

The share of income flowing to a smaller and smaller group of Americans is draining the life blood out of the middle class:

“From 1950 to 1989, nearly 40 years of data the top 1 percent earned roughly 7 to 8 percent of all the nationwide income.  Today it is inching closer to 20 percent, a figure resembling the massive income inequality seen during the Great Depression.”

Even within the top 1 percent the difference in incomes is striking:

This kind of income inequality is coming at the cost of the middle class.  Banks and the financial press would like you to believe that this isn’t the case but just look at how far your dollar is now going.  If you are fortunate to have a retirement account it is likely you don’t have the gambling devices of options, hedges, and other items that are largely new casino devices for Wall Street.  Most Americans are comfortable with income discrepancies but not at these levels and not when much of the gains are based on bets that hurt the overall economy.

The problem as many are now seeing is the financial sector is largely rent seeking by pilfering the future of many middle class Americans.  The banking system extracts wealth by devaluing the US dollar, by charging interest or fees on retail banking, and ultimately suckering many Americans to dump money into a stock market that is operated like a casino.  Washington Mutual, a once popular bank used to offer free checking for life.  JP Morgan Chase took over Washington Mutual in a government shotgun wedding.  Now, Chase is looking to extract $10 to $12 per month merely for having a checking account.  Of course they’ll waive this if you have $5,000 saved in a handful of their accounts.  Look above again.  1 out of 3 Americans have no savings so how will this be accomplished?

As we mentioned Social Security is largely becoming the retirement account default of many Americans.  Yet the growing number of beneficiaries is now putting strain on the system:

The above chart will only continue to show expansion.  Where will all this money come from?  We have a smaller workforce with the young that are already having a tough time saving any money in this economy.  Many of the good paying jobs of today require a college education and college has largely entered its own student loan bubble.  Many of the future middle class are merely trying to service their own massive debt even before they begin their careers.  To save that $1 million will become a daunting task moving forward.  Also, if the Federal Reserve has its way $1 million 30 or 40 years from now may not be much.

With 17 percent of Americans unemployed or underemployed many are simply looking for that next paycheck let alone planning for a retirement where they can sip margaritas in some picturesque beach location.  Wall Street has pilfered the pockets of the middle class through bailouts for their reckless gambling and incredible excess.  Many Americans now understand this yet the current political class is merely interested in protecting the established plutocracy by pillaging the American village.  Most Americans are becoming exhausted by both political parties and their pandering to Wall Street that provides a revolving door of money, jobs, and connections.

The younger generation is seeing their ability to grow their net worth diminishing:

This figure has only dropped even further in the last few years.  Retirement was once thought of as a place where one would reach a comfortable existence after many years of hard work.  Not an extravagant lifestyle but one in where a home was paid off and enough money came in for food and daily necessities.  But now with Wall Street turning housing into a giant commodity and stripping bear the employment base of the country; many are wondering if retirement is even an option especially when the stock market is at the same level as it was one decade ago.

Ultimately what needs to happen is to get money out of politics and to split up commercial and investment banking.  The answer is obvious but the plutocracy is relentless in keeping this game going as long as possible.  As this continues, retirement will continue to look more and more as a fantasy to millions of Americans.

My Budget360

The economic crisis has ushered in the end of a generation long bull market.  Most average investors ignore the fact that heavy market volatility is a sign of an unhealthy stock market.  The stock market since the lows reached in 2009 has been on an unstoppable bull run.  Yet the real economy where most Americans work and spend money has not reflected any of this irrational exuberance.  The S&P 500 has rallied 53 percent from the lows reached in early 2009 and that is including the current retracement back.  On Tuesday the stock market pulled back on data showing consumer confidence plunging from what analysts had expected.  Outside of Wall Street the economy is walking on eggshells.

If we look at S&P 500 data we find that we have entered into a new era:

The above chart highlights milestones for the S&P 500 dating back to 1968.  For the S&P 500 to double from 100 to 200, it took a slow 17 years.  From 200 to 400 it took 6 years, an incredibly quick jump.  Another 6 years after that and the S&P 500 was riding high at 800.  From 1997 to 2007 the S&P 500 went from 800 to 1,576 in the intraday high that is now far in the past.  It almost doubled yet again in a 10 year horizon.  Yet that trend has been broken.  The S&P 500 is now back to 1,041 and has pulled back to levels seen in 1998.  Does anyone really see the S&P 500 going to 2,000 any time soon?

“The stock market needs to reflect the underlying health and productivity of the overall economy and not simply the gambling penchant of Wall Street banks.”

Most of America is dealing with the new austerity that is being thrust on them from an unforgiving economy and a government that seems to be preoccupied with helping out the financial industry before setting things right with the average worker.  In other words, the middle class is being thrown to the wolves in this crisis.  The government is serving the interest of big money at the detriment of the middle class.

If we look at the volatility of the S&P 500 over the past 22 years we’ll notice two different stories.  From 1988 to 2000, the stock market enjoyed a once in a lifetime bull run.  There were virtually no negative years and some incredible year over year gains.  Keep in mind that we are looking at a 12 year timeframe on a tiny chart but this is over a decade of mental conditioning here.  If we look from 2000 to our present day, the massive amount of volatility has sent the S&P 500 to levels seen in 1998:

2008 was the worst stock market year since the Great Depression.  That is how bad that one year turned out for investors.  This large amount of volatility simply reflects a weak real economy and the recent stock market run to the peak of the mountain was super charged by taxpayer money going into large investment banks who in return went into the stock market and gambled your hard earned money.  Clearly it hasn’t done much for consumer confidence, aiding in the foreclosure crisis, or bringing jobs back.  What then did all this money really accomplish?

If we look at the VIX which looks at option trading volume and is a good sign of volatility we also see this recent stock market reshuffling:

What we can gather from all this volatility is a new paradigm has arrived.  Most popular financial books that hype compound interest always focus on a convenient 7 to 10 percent annualized gain in the stock market.  That may have been the case from 1968 to 2000 but that isn’t the case anymore.  What are you going to invest in when U.S. Treasuries are barely offering any interest and bank accounts are offering rates of 0.01 percent on savings accounts?  Your mattress would rival some of these rates.

The stock market right now is one large casino.  No real reform has taken place and that is why we see no real changes in the economy yet trillions of dollars funneled into a financial abyss.  Someone got this money but clearly it wasn’t the middle class.  The public was told that money was going to go to shore up the housing market (didn’t happen) and to keep lending to the public going (didn’t happen).  So what did happen was that big investment banks used taxpayer money and gambled to bolster their own profits.  That was basically the smoke and mirrors campaign that we have gone through.

The middle class is largely a casualty of this all.  9 out of the top 10 jobs in this country are in low paying service sector work.  We hear this rhetoric about a double dip but the middle and working class never got out of the first dip to begin with.  Who is this double dip for?  Wall Street gamblers who have funneled taxpayer money into the casino?  Must be nice for their 53 percent rally but sadly none of that is reflected in the real economy.  If we want to be happy about gambling why not talk about the person who just won the lottery last night.   Wall Street certainly won the lottery here at the expense of the taxpayers.  The collapse of consumer confidence is merely a reflection of what most of us already know.  The real economy has never recovered.

This is the end of a generational bull run just like the 1920s came crashing down with the Great Depression.  Unlike that time, we have allowed the banks and Wall Street to continue to pollute our real economy with their gambling schemes.  Can you believe that no real reform has taken place?  No wonder why average Americans are displeased with both political parties and are furious at Wall Street.

My Budget360