Archive for the ‘jobs report’ Category
Nonfarm payroll employment edged up in March (+88,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services and in health care but declined in retail trade.
This report sucks.
A month or two does not a trend make, but this, my friends, is a trend. Pay attention to the annualized (red line) number; this is no longer a “little dip” or a “pause”, it’s a trend change and it’s severely negative.
If there’s one good piece of news it’s here — the total number of employed people went up. The problem is that adjusted for population over the last year we are 1 million jobs in the hole, or about 250,000 worse than last month (-1105 .vs. -849, both thousands)
That shows up right here:
This chart tells the tale and is why the collapse was of such extraordinary violence in 2008 — the alleged “gains” in asset prices and similar were not born from economic surplus powered by employment gains but rather were borrowed.
Despite what the screamers have said about “The Fed” and “Stock Market” the facts are that while the rate of decline has gone flat since the alleged “recovery” there has been no factual recovery.
The employment rate ticked up 0.1% but this is a time of the year when we should see upward movement — and as such one cannot take solace in that figure. The fact of the matter is that real improvement in employment does not exist and has never existed since the bottom in 2009, despite what the useful idiots on the TeeVee have been telling you.
Average workweek ticked up 0.1 and hourly earnings ticked up one cent, but among non-supervisory employees hours were flat and earnings were down a penny.
The trend has clearly shifted and is just plain old-fashioned bad.
We are currently experiencing a pre-election surge in all economic metrics; and then comes the hangover as can be confirmed by looking at hiring plans. Morgan Stanley’s Business Conditions Index (a multi-factor real-time bottom-up economy tracker) has tumbled this month, giving back most of the very recent gains but it is the ‘outlook for hiring’ that is the most worrisome. Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows. The hiring index dropped 10 points to 44%, its lowest since December 2009, and the hiring plans index sunk 13 points to 44%, lowest since August 2009. Due to its leading indicator nature, this means that imminent payrolls may not stop rising; but in a few short months will post the first sequential decline since 2010. What this means for the unemployment rate is self-explanatory - but by then the election will be decided.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Another month, another bad jobs report. For the month of May, the U.S. economy only added 69,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 8.2%. Many are calling this a total “disaster” and are worried that the U.S. economy could be headed back into another recession. Economists had been expecting 150,000 payroll jobs would be added, so the 69,000 number really shocked a lot of people. The truth is that the economy needs to add approximately 125,000 new jobs every single month just to keep the unemployment rate steady. So yes, this bad jobs report is not welcome news at all – especially for the Obama administration. When Barack Obama first took office the unemployment rate was sitting at 7.6 percent and now it is sitting at 8.2 percent. Some “recovery”, eh? But the reality is that this jobs report was really not that “devastating” even though the stock market had its worst day of the year. Unemployment in America is still about at the same level as it was back at the beginning of 2012. The tough stretch that we are going through right now is only a very small taste of the economic nightmare that is on the horizon. If you think that things are a “disaster” right now, just wait until you see what is coming.
At the moment, 53 percent of all Americans with a bachelor’s degree under the age of 25 are either unemployed or underemployed, and there are more than 100 million working age Americans that do not currently have jobs.
But this is only just the beginning.
During the next major economic downturn, the unemployment rate in the United States is going to soar well up into the double digits.
Many Americans will look back on 2010, 2011 and 2012 as “the good old days”.
Right now, there are only small pockets of the country that are totaleconomic hellholes.
In the future, those kinds of numbers are going to become the norm all over the nation.
Sadly, most Americans have no idea what is coming.
Today, I wanted to share with you all a couple of chilling economic forecasts that I have been made aware of recently.
The first is from Raoul Pal. According to Zero Hedge, Raoul Pal “previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe… Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes.”
The following is from a Zero Hedge summary of a recent presentation by Raoul Pal….
- We don’t know exactly what is to come, but we can all join the very few dots from where we are now, to the collapse of the first majorbank…
- With very limited room for government bailouts, we can very easily join the next dots from the first bank closure to the collapse of the whole European banking system, and then to the bankruptcy of the governments themselves.
- There are almost no brakes in the system to stop this, and almost no one realises the seriousness of the situation.
- The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…
- Yes, that equates to 1200% of Global GDP and it rests on very, very weak foundations
- From an EU crisis, we only have to join one dot for a UK crisis of equal magnitude.
- And then do you think Japan and China would not be next?
- And then do you think the US would survive unscathed?
- That is the end of the fractional reserve banking system and of fiat money.
- It is the big RESET.
- Bonds will be stuck at 1% in the US, Germany, UK and Japan (for this phase).
- The whole bond market will be dead.
- Short selling on bonds – banned
- Short selling stocks – banned
- CDS – banned
- Short futures – banned
- Put options – banned
- All that is left is the Dollar and Gold
It only gets better. We use the term loosely:
- We have around 6 months left of trading in Western markets to protect ourselves or make enough money to offset future losses.
- Spend your time looking at the risks of custody, safekeeping, counterparty etc. Assume that no one and nothing is safe.
- After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges
So how soon does Raoul Pal think all of this is going to happen?….
From a timing perspective, I think 2012 and 2013 will usher in the end.
You can find his entire presentation entitled “The End Game” right here.
What Raoul Pal is saying lines up very well with what Steve Quayle’s anonymous international banking source is telling him….
There is no stopping this…We are still on track as I have been predicting for a while now for a fall/winter collapse of the Eurozone and naked exposure of all derivative markets the world over. Europeans will go through a major reset, after time they will recover as Europeans do not carry the type of personal debt that Americans do. It is for America that I worry. Look for these signs next:
1- JPM will be bailed out again but it will not stop the coming market crash. More details will emerge about their derivative swap failure $150 billion and counting.
2-BOA (BAC Bank of America) will fold and be absorbed into JPM as a way to prop up the bleeding Giant. JPM will get the best picking of this deal just like they got with Bear Stearns.
3- Massive layoffs at Citigroup and Wells Fargo
4- Goldman Sachs finally pays the piper, look for massive cuts there as well as BIG Losses
5- Bond market bust which leads to freeze of all bond sales
6- Derivative bust the next one will be BOA followed by Citigroup
7- All CDS shorts and swaps will freeze.
8- Total Meltdown
You can read the rest of what that source is saying right here.
As I have been saying all along, there are two keys that you need to be watching right now….
Sadly, the articles that I write about Europe tend to get far less of a response than my other articles get. Most Americans simply do not understand that what is happening in Europe right now is going to significantly affect their daily lives.
And most Americans have very little understanding of derivatives. But as you just read, there are some in the financial community that are warning that we could see the derivatives bubble burst very soon.
Time is running out. This period of relative stability that we are currently experiencing will not last forever.
You better get ready.
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.
Meh. Let’s look at the internals and the household numbers, because that’s actual numbers instead of political crap. Incidentally, my guess was +100k +/- 50, so 115k is pretty close.
In summary for those who don’t want to read the entire thing – this is a weak report.
The annualized improvement is curling over and the monthly number is not going anywhere good. What’s worse is that the not-in-labor-force number continues to go the wrong way and was up nearly 600,000 last month.
The employment rate moved upward a touch, but it’s still sitting in the ditch and this is the key number for everyone to focus on, as I’ve pointed out for years – without this problem being repaired the governmentmust downsize dramatically or we will hit the wall.
And finally, in terms of being screwed, we still are.
This chart is simply the annualized (now .vs. 12 months ago) difference between employment and population. That is, in this case, 242,784 (in thousands) less 239,146 = 3.638 million more people (according to the BLS) in the country compared to 12 months ago, but there are 141,995 – 139,661 or 2.334 million more people employed. That is, on a working age non-institutionalized population-change-subtracted basis we have lost 1,304,000 jobs compared to the same point one year ago.
The last positive number we printed on this series, and that was only 480,000 jobs net of population growth, was in December of 2006. There is no way to sustain the size of the government, say much less its growth given the six-year unbroken record of losses.
Over the past several years, people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, unbelievable rate and because this is not included in the government figures, it holds the official ‘unemployment rate’ low. In essence, these government figures are intentional fiction designed to keep the American people from realizing just how horrifying our government’s monetary policy and our monetary system is.
The CNBC crooners are out again refusing to say what this report was in plain English: It sucks.
Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 119,000 from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from February to March was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 209,000 to a revised estimate of 201,000.
This just plain bites.
Worse, goods producing jobs decreased straight-up.
The so-called “de-leveraging” story is dead as well, as the so-called “savings rate” (in which paying down debt is called “saving”) is going down rather than up, which strongly implies that people are once again turning to credit simply to survive.
The attempt to reinflate the Ponzi bubble that burst in 2008 has failed. Worse, it appears that we we may be weeks to months at most from broad financial market recognition of this failure — and if so, we’re about to have one hell of a crash and this time there are no policy actions available that will make a difference in the outcome.
Be prepared or get caught outdoors when the storm arrives.
Jobless Claims 4/19: Oops
In the week ending April 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 369,250.
“But it went down!” I hear you say. Uh, no. The revisions folks, the revisions. Again.
There’s nothing good here; this looks like yet another train wreck and shows that job “creation” is at best tepid and might be turning negative.
There is however, one interesting thing in the big table — and note that this is in last month’s numbers:
That regular drop is definitely something to take note of. We’ll see if that’s a one-off or an actual meaningful change…… there have been a number of drops in that figure of late, so it cannot be ignored without further evidence that it is an anomaly.
Philly Fed – Softening
Manufacturing firms responding to the April Business Outlook Survey indicated that regional manufacturing activity expanded modestly this month. The survey’s broad indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all remained positive but fell slightly from their readings last month. The indicator for current employment, however, showed a notable improvement. Price pressures were only slightly more widespread this month. The survey’s broad indicators of future activity remained at relatively high readings, and firms were more optimistic about their plans for hiring over the next six months.
Yeah, ok. Nice try.
The diffusion index came in at 8.5, down from 12.5 last month. New orders and shipments were both down, unfilled orders (backlog) was an outlier and showed build, inventories were up (a lot) and prices paid were also up (not so good), far more than prices received (very bad.)
More ominously while hiring took place employee workweek contracted. That implies overshoot in the activity by employers, which is very bad on a forward basis.