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Archive for the ‘prices’ Category

FOMC Stupidity: 12/13

 

Yes, stupidity.

Release Date: December 13, 2011

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but business fixed investment appears to be increasing less rapidly and the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has moderated since earlier in the year, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Really?  You didn’t talk to Texas Instruments or listen to them (or Dupont for that matter) did you?

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations.

Oh really?  You mean like this sort of “non-inflation”?

If you’re not real sharp you might miss it — those are “cases” that are in fact 20 packs instead of 24.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.

The Committee also decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.

The Committee will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Charles L. Evans, who supported additional policy accommodation at this time.

And what would Evans have done?

The problem here is the lack of available collateral — that is, there’s too much debt and servicing it is sucking up too much production.  This means that there’s not enough left once you pay the service to both cover the mandatory costs (which as the name implies are not optional) and form capital.

This is when the credit ponzi dies — when there is no longer economic surplus produced from more debt.  Put another way, the marginal utility of more deficit spending no matter who’s running the deficit is now negative — the more borrow the worse the economy gets!

This is the inevitable outcome of two exponential functions that you do not allow to come back into balance.  It is not complicated and it cannot be avoided — no matter what you do.

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More Signs Of Decay In America

 

The bad news just keeps rolling in. Keeping up with it is almost a full-time job. Here’s a recent sample featuring wage slaves, vanishing pensions and soaring health care costs.

1. It’s Not Too Late To Revive Slavery

A recent report notes that it’s not enough to create jobs. You’ve also got to create jobs which pay a living wage. Imagine that! What are these guys? Socialists? From Not getting by on minimum wage (September 27, 2011)—

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Most experts agree that to get out of the economic slump, we need more jobs.

But another problem is that millions of Americans already have jobs that don’t pay very much.

Getting the economy going will require more than just creating a large number of low-wage positions, said Paul Osterman, economics professor at MIT. Raising the minimum wage to get more cash to the working poor is just as crucial, he said.

About 20% of American adults who have jobs are earning only $10.65 an hour or less, according to Osterman’s analysis. Even at 40 hours a week, that amounts to less than $22,314, the poverty level for a family of four.

The federal minimum wage currently stands at $7.25 an hour (18 states set their own rates above the federal level, maxing out at $8.67 an hour in Washington State).

Here’s the kicker.

But increases have not kept up with inflation. When adjusted for inflation, the highest federal minimum wage was in 1968, when it was the equivalent of $10.38 in today’s dollars

With a greater percentage of the nation’s income going to corporate profits than ever before, Osterman argues that businesses can afford a higher minimum wage.

“There needs to be standards in the job market,” he said. “If the object is simply to minimize costs, we can use slaves again.”

2. Your Vanishing Pension

The Daily Ticker recently reported on the Retirement Heist! — U.S. Pensions Plundered By Corporate Greed, Author Says (video below).

As if the average worker didn’t have enough to worry about, Ellen Schultz, an award-winning Wall Street Journal reporter and author of Retirement Heist: How Companies Plunder and Profit from the Nest Eggs of American Workers, says that in some instances the fat paychecks of the top paid executives are coming directly out of the pocket of average workers.

“As recently as a decade ago there was a trillion dollars, a quarter of a trillion in surplus assets,” in corporate funds, Schultz tells The Daily Ticker’s Aaron Task in the accompanying clip. “There was plenty of money in pension plans; there was plenty to pay the benefits but corporations went about taking the money away.”

… Schultz believes this was no accident, claiming corporations have been “exaggerating their retiree burdens” and plundering retirement plans in a variety of ways, including:

  • Siphon billions of dollars from their pension plans to finance downsizings and sell the assets in merger deals.
  • Overstate the burden of rank-and-file retiree obligations to justify benefits cuts, while simultaneously using the savings to inflate executive pay and pensions.

And so on… Corporate big shots are stealing worker pension funds and then reducing their retirement benefits. It’s really very simple, the opposite of complicated. It’s not a head-scratcher. No need to pore over the details. What did George Carlin say about corporate big shots?

They want obedient workers. Obedient workers. People who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork, and just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shittier jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime, and the vanishing pension which disappears the minute you go to collect it…

The American Dream, folks. Of course, you’ve got to asleep to believe it.

3. If You Shoot Yourself In The Head…

McClatchy Newspapers reports that job-based health insurance premiums have risen sharply this year.

WASHINGTON — After modest increases last year, the cost of job-based health insurance for families and individuals has jumped sharply this year, even though insurers are paying less in benefits as cash-strapped American workers opt for less medical care.

For the estimated 150 million workers with employer-sponsored coverage, the average cost of family health insurance jumped 9 percent this year to $15,073, while the price of individual coverage rose 8 percent to $5,429.

Both increases are the largest since 2005.

Worker_health_insurance_2011
Click to enlarge.

And when McClatchy says this—

Each far outpaced a national 2 percent hike in wages and a 3.2 percent rise in inflation, according to an annual survey of nearly 2,100 businesses that the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research & Educational Trust released Tuesday.

you should bear in mind that it is nearly a certainty that the wages of working Americans have not increased this year, while those of the top wage-earners did.

All is not lost. You can avoid these soaring health care costs. My solution? If you shoot yourself in the head, you won’t have to pay those rising premiums. If you don’t own a gun, be creative!

Bonus Video

 

Decline of the Empire

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17 Facts That Prove That The Average American Family Is Getting Absolutely Pulverized By This Economy

 

How in the world does the average American family survive in this economy?  The median household income is a little bit less than $50,000 a year right now.  So let’s call that about $4000 a month.  But before any of that money gets spent, you have to take out at least $1000 in taxes.  That leaves about $3000 a month to pay all the bills with.  With that $3000 you have to pay the mortgage (or rent), make the car payments, make the student loan payments, pay for power and water, pay for health insurance, pay for home insurance, pay for car insurance, pay the phone bill, pay the Internet bill and pay the cable bill.  On top of all that, every member of the family needs three meals a day and the cars need to be filled up with gasoline or they won’t go anywhere.  Of course I haven’t even mentioned expenses that don’t happen every month such as car repairs or new shoes.  No wonder so many families are feeling so financially stressed!

The truth is that American families are getting squeezed harder than they have been in ages.  The number of good jobs is declining, incomes are going down, and the cost of living just keeps going up.

The following are 17 facts that prove that the average American family is getting absolutely pulverized by this economy….

#1 The cost of a health insurance policy for the average American family rose by a whopping 9 percent last year.  According to a report put out by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust, the average family health insurance policy now costs over $15,000 a year.

How in the world can most families afford that?  Yes, in many cases employers are paying for at least a portion of that, but still that seems absolutely outrageous.

#2 Due to rising costs, a lot of employers are completely getting rid of health plans for their employees.  In fact, the percentage of Americans covered by employer-based health plans has fallen for 11 years in a row.

#3 The number of uninsured Americans continues to rise.  Things have gotten so bad that an all-time record 49.9 million Americans do not have any health insurance at all.

#4 At this point, most American families are tapped out financially.  According to the U.S. Labor Department, incomes and spending were both down for the second straight year in 2010.

#5 At the same time, the employment picture continues to look worse with each passing month.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of layoffs in the United States was up 14 percent in August.

#6 Even if you do have a job that doesn’t mean that you are doing much more than surviving.  According to Paul Osterman, a professor of economics at MIT, approximately 20 percent of all employed Americans are making $10.65 an hour or less.

#7 The amount of debt that the average American family has piled up is absolutely staggering.  The median yearly wage in the United States is just $26,261, but the average American household is carrying $75,600 in debt.

#8 Consumer confidence is extremely low right now.  If the U.S. economy was in good shape, the Consumer Confidence Index would be up around 90.  Instead, it is sitting at 45.4.

#9 Nearly every recent survey shows that the American people are feeling really depressed about the economy right now.  In fact, one poll found that 80 percent of them believe that we are actually in a recession right now.

#10 Many consumers are seriously starting to cut back on spending again, and that is not a good sign for the U.S. economy.  According to one recent study, 40 percent of all Americans have cut back on their spending within the last 60 days.

#11 It certainly does not help that millions of good jobs have been shipped out of the country.  Sadly, the trend of offshoring our jobs is going to continue to accelerate if something is not done.  According to Professor Alan Blinder of Princeton University, 40 million more U.S. jobs could be sent offshore over the next two decades.

#12 There is a lot of fear in the workforce right now.  According to Gallup, 30 percent of all employed Americans are worried that they will be laid off soon.

#13 Today, there are 5.9 million Americans between the ages of 25 and 34 that are living with their parents.  That is putting an even greater strain on the budgets of many families.

#14 American families have gotten very accustomed to using plastic to pay for things.  Today, the average U.S. household has 13 different credit cards.

#15 Many American families are not making it at all in this economy.  Last year, 2.6 million more Americans dropped into poverty.  That was the largest increase that we have seen since the U.S. government began keeping statistics on this back in 1959.

#16 For many American families, living on food stamps has become a way of life.  Today, there are more than 45 million Americans on food stamps and we keep setting a brand new record almost every single month.

#17 Things have gotten so bad that many American families are selling off whatever they can in order to survive.  For example, down in Florida hundreds of people have been selling off their burial plots in an attempt to raise cash.  The following is an excerpt from a local news report about this new trend….

Sellers are posting online, using burial plot brokers, and also funeral homes to market the real estate. Some of those advertisements show single plots starting at about $1,000, while family plots can go for up to $50,000.

Most American families are living in a state of almost constant financial stress.  Way too many parents are spending way too many sleepless nights wondering how in the world they will be able to keep their heads above water for another month.

Very few families seem to have “extra money” for stuff these days.  Yeah, there are the “privileged few”, but most people are really struggling to get by.

In America today, if you are able to keep your home from being foreclosed and you are able to put food on the table and clothes on the backs of your family then you are doing pretty good.

Sadly, as our current economic crisis deepens, the average American family is going to have an even more difficult time trying to survive financially.

The Economic Collapse

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The Big Change: Massive Financial Volitility & The Occupation of Wall Street

 

The Big Change:  Massive financial volatility and the occupation of Wall Street – when the middle class breaks protests will hit the financial streets.  Poverty in the suburbs and rising food costs.

When the basic costs of living move up there is bound to be shocks deep in the economy.  As we mull over the humbling Census data, it is clear that many Americans are struggling in this modern day economy that protects the banks at the cost of the majority.  Let us call a spade a spade.  We are in the epicenter of the biggest financial disaster in history spurred on by the investment banks and their purchased colleagues in Washington D.C.  How do we know this?  Because no real reform has been enacted on Wall Street and we enter a decade of lost wages.  The middle class is disappearing because bankers have used corporate welfare to shield themselves from the brutal corrections of the markets while the rest of Americans need to get by on an average of $25,000 per capita.  Oscillating votes from Democrats to Republicans has done absolutely nothing.  Many are now taking to the streets and protestors are now marching to Wall Street taking action.  If you look at those who are protesting many are young, in their twenties and thirties, protesting what the media has failed to cover for years.  If we look at the last decade we realize that our current financial system has captured our political system and things are starting to get volatile, just like the stock markets.

 

The rising costs of daily goods

You don’t need a degree in economics to know the cost of living is getting more expensive.  Take a look at the performance of various asset classes for the last year:

one year performance

Look at all the items related to food in the green:

-Live cattle is up 21 percent over the last year.

-Rough rice is up 33 percent over the last year

-Lean hogs are up 13.3 percent over the last year

-Soybeans are up 12 percent

-Crude oil is up 5 percent

-Sugar is up 2.7 percent

At the same time, the majority of Americans see a shrinking paycheck or no paycheck with the large number of unemployed.  When trends like this persist, economies begin to get unstable.  The Federal Reserve continues to devalue the U.S. dollar through its actions and specifically looks to aid the big banks at the expense of the public.

 

Poverty in the suburbs

One of the oddest symptoms of this crisis is suburb poverty.  When we think of poverty we usually think of run down sections of Detroit or other inner cities.  Yet poverty in the suburbs is growing with the middle class shrinking:

poverty suburbs

Read the rest at My Budget 360

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Economic Data Roundup: More Suck. Everywhere.

 

 

Nothing good here…

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 428,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 417,000. The 4-week moving average was 419,500, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 415,500.

Oh look, it’s going up again!  What do we blame this time?  I’m sure we can find something….. (How about “Your policies suck Mr. President and Congress?”)

There’s nothing worthwhile in the extended claims data – the total dropped by 25,000 in the August 27th week, but the increases the last couple of weeks are not yet in these numbers.  They will be, but not until we get right up against the employment report for September.

Note that with the claims numbers we’re seeing and the trend direction the risk of a negative September NFP report is climbing fast.  If you’re wondering what’s feeding the panic level in Obama’s White House with his “jobs” bill look no further than this series.


CPI: Smoking!

What’s the “misery index” again?  I seem to remember it being 12-month chained inflation and unemployment.  Well?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

But but but…. there’s no inflation, right?

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in August, the same increase as the previous month. Shelter and apparel were the biggest contributors, though the indexes for most of its major components posted increases, including used cars and trucks, medical care, household furnishings and operations, recreation, tobacco, and personal care. The new vehicles index, unchanged for the second month in a row, was an exception.

The “but it’s all energy prices and they’re volatile” excuse is long in the tooth and running out of gas.  That dog won’t hunt any more folks….

The energy index has risen 18.4 percent over the last year, while the food index has increased 4.6 percent.

Of course Senior Citizens who were prudent and saved don’t have a problem with this, right?  After all they don’t need to buy food or energy… and neither does anyone else…. right?

This doesn’t disproportionately hit the lower class and working poor, does it?  I mean, food and energy aren’t a disproportionate amount of their spending, are they?

Hmmmm….

There are some big numbers in the tables – of note are virtually everything food-related, up 4% or better across the board with some things such as meats and dairy up 8 and 9% respectively.  Fuel oil was up a stunning 27%, water and sewer services up nearly 5%, apparel up 4% and private transportation costs up an eye-popping 12% – with public transport costs skyrocketing as well (7.2%).

Hospitals jacked people for 6.2% more while higher education screwed you to the tune of 4.4%.

These are annualized changes (from August 2010) and put into stark relief exactly what sort of squeeze has been felt by the common person.  Everyone loves to talk about “oh it’s 0.2% this month” but few will go back and look at who this hits and how hard – and how it all looks on a annualized basis.

When you look at the monthly change in these categories you find no joy either.  Monthly change on food was 0.6; annualized that’s 7.4%.  Apparel was up 2.3% last month, which you better hope doesn’t continue (as it’s an annualized rate of change of 31%!)  Both private and public transport, thank God, did level off this last month.

In short while the inflation trend may be slowing down for the lower class and working poor the damage has already been done.

Make sure you thank Ben and Obama.


Empire Manufacturing: More Suck Part Deux

No joy found in here….

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers worsened for a fourth consecutive month in September. The general business conditions index inched down one point, to -8.8. The new orders index held steady at -8.0, while the shipments index dropped sixteen points to -12.9. The inventories index, negative for a third month in a row, fell to -12.0—a sign that inventories continued to decline. After dropping significantly over the summer, the indexes for both prices paid and prices received climbed several points, suggesting that the pace of price increases picked up. Employment indexes were below zero, indicating that employment levels and hours worked fell over the month.

In other words it all sucks, basically - while prices are picking up again into collapsing demand.

What’s worse is that the forward expectations for employment are now zero (no growth) and for the workweek are negative for the second month in a row.  This is a seriously bad indication of forward economic activity, and comes into major softening in the other regional indices.

We’re rapidly piling up the “recession” indicators, exactly as I expected would happen a year ago when the PPI changes started to come into the focus.

Brace for the impact folks – this ride is going to get very rough in the terms that matter the most to you – jobs.


Philly Fed: Sucks, But Better Than Traders Expected

When you get a crap number and the market goes up you know the expectation was “Armageddon.”

Responses to the Business Outlook Survey this month suggest that regional manufacturing activity is continuing to contract, but declines are less widespread than in August. The survey’s broad indicators for activity, shipments, and new orders all remained negative for the second consecutive month. Responding firms, however, indicated that employment was slightly higher this month. The broadest indicator of future activity remained positive and rebounded this month, suggesting that recent declines are not expected to continue over the next six months.

Eh, I’m not impressed.

One good numbers in there – the employees number stopped falling apart.  But – the workweek did not, which makes one wonder whether seasonal factors are involved in this more than anything else.  I cannot get excited about alleged “stabilization” in employment in that survey with hours worked declining as that directly contradicts the alleged improvement in the employee numbers.


 The Market-Ticker

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CPI (Consumer Price Index): The Big Suck

But, but, but….. as Professor Kack (or is that “Hack”) said, there’s no indication of inflation:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.

This is “no indication of trouble”, right?  1.005 ^ 12 = 6.2% annualized inflation.

Not a problem, right?

What’s been flying upward?  Gasoline, clothing, electricity and groceries.

You don’t need to buy any of those, right?  You can hide out in things that aren’t going up much, like commodities less food and energy?

Yeah, right.

Oh, and Bernanke?  He claims he wants to see 1-2% inflation despite clear language in The Federal Reserve Act that mandates stable prices.  Well, how’s he doing?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.6 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 225.922 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 4.1 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 222.686 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

Why did we have The Coinage Act of 1792 again?  Oh that might be so that the common man doesn’t get screwed, blued and tattooed by those who would otherwise intentionally destroy his saved capital.

It’s time to bring it back, including the penalty clause, with sentences to be carried out in public on The National Mall.

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