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Archive for the ‘Social Security Trust Fund II’ Category

SS Trust Fund – "We lost $1.1 Trillion last year!"

 

Yes, that is a correct headline. In its annual report to Congress last  week SS acknowledged that its condition had sharply deteriorated in  2010. This sentence from the report is all you really need to know about what the status is:

The open group unfunded obligation over the 75-year projection period has increased from $5.4 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2010) to $6.5 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2011).

Note that this is a present value calculation. The total unfunded  obligation has grown by a cool $1.1 trillion in just a year. In other  words, if we had to shore up the TF to the level that it was just a year ago the USA would have to write a check for $1.1 T. The unfunded status was a disaster a year ago at $5.6T, it got worse by 20% during 2010.  The cost of “fixing” SS goes up as a result. To put things in balance  one of these two extremes are now required:

For the combined OASDI Trust Funds to remain solvent, the payroll tax rate could be increased an immediate and permanent 2.15%, (or) scheduled benefits could be reduced by an immediate and permanent 13.8%.

If you think this a ho-hum result, think again. If benefits get cut  across the board by 14% we will have many seniors who will fall into a  hole. An increase in payroll taxes of 2.15% is simply not going to  happen anytime soon. There is no support in Congress for an increase  like that. It would mean that taxes on all workers/employers would have  to go up by $110b in the first year and rise every year thereafter. This would be a very regressive tax increase that hurts lower end workers  the hardest. For 2011 there is already a payroll tax holiday of 2%. If  the required increases take place in 2012 it would mean a 3.2% reduction in wages. Kiss the economy goodbye under that scenario.

I underlined the TF’s use of the words immediate and permanent as this language highlights the fact there can be no delaying on the fixes necessary at SS. One thing that you can take to the bank is that nothing will happen with SS in 2011 or 2012. This is a problem that will simmer for at least another 24 months. This delay will prove to be very costly for all involved. Both the required  tax increases and/or the required cutbacks will be much larger than  today.

The NPV of the unfunded liabilities at SS are now growing by at least  $100b a month. One would think that this massive cost would spur some  response in D.C. Don’t count on it. As a result, SS is going to come off the rails in about two years.

Zero Hedge

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Geithner Admits: There Are NO Trust Funds

 

Note this one well folks:

Medicare, the government health plan for seniors, will exhaust its principal trust fund five years sooner than previously thought, which could heighten pressure on the White House and Congress to change the program as part of deficit-reduction negotiations.

Wait a second…. didn’t we just hear this from Timmy about the need to borrow more money?

“If the United States were forced to stop, limit or delay payment on obligations to which the Nation has already committed – such as military salaries, Social Security and Medicare, tax refunds, contractual payments to businesses for goods and services, and payments to our investors….”

Busted jackass.

Tim Geithner just admitted in writing that there is no trust fund – there is no money – the Government in fact blew every last penny of it.

You, America, have been serially lied to about these so-called “trust funds.”

THEY DO NOT EXIST.

Anyone – and I repeat anyone – who believes there is a “trust fund” or that there is one thin dime set aside by the government to cover Social Security and Medicare after you were just told, in black ink by the Secretary of the Treasury that there is not deserves exactly what they get.

You, the American people, have been robbed.  I and a few others have been trying to warn you of this for years and have been laughed at.

Tim Geithner has now admitted in black letters that what I’ve been saying for years is, in fact, correct.

The Market-Ticker

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Why the Government Wants to Hijack Your 401(k)

 

Why the Government Wants to Hijack Your 401(k)

By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning

It’s bad enough that we’ve been forced to bail out Wall Street. But now the Obama administration is hatching plans to raid our retirement savings, too.

To say that I’m “outraged” doesn’t come close to describing the emotions I experience every time I think about the government’s latest hare-brained scheme.

According to widespread media reports, both the U.S. Treasury Department and the Department of Labor plan are planning to stage a public-comment period before implementing regulations that would require U.S. savers to invest portions of their 401(k) savings plans and Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) into annuities or other “steady” payment streams backed by U.S. government bonds.

Folks, there’s only one reason these agencies would do such a thing – the nation’s creditors think that U.S. government bonds are a bad bet and don’t want to buy them anymore. So like a grifter who’s down to his last dollar, the administration is hoping to get its hands on our hard-earned savings before the American people realize they’ve had the wool pulled over their eyes … once again.

It’s easy to understand why.

Facing a $14 trillion fiscal hangover, the Treasury can no longer count countries such as Japan and China to be dependable buyers of U.S. government debt. Not only have those nations dramatically reduced their purchasing of U.S. bonds, most of our largest creditors are now actively diversifying their reserves away from greenback-based investments in favor of other reliable stores of value – like oil, gold and other commodities.

This growing reluctance couldn’t come at a worse time. Just yesterday (Tuesday), in fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the U.S. budget deficit would hit $1.35 trillion this year. And that’s not the only shortfall the Treasury has to address. The U.S. Federal Reserve is supposed to stop buying Treasury bonds for its asset portfolio, a program the central bank put in place last year.

The upshot: The Obama administration has to find other ways sell government debt – without raising interest rates, a move that would almost certainly jeopardize the country’s super-weak economic recovery.

Facing an uphill battle and increasingly skeptical buyers, the government is changing tactics and targeting the biggest pile of money available as a means of dealing with its fiscal follies – the $3.6 trillion sitting in U.S. retirement plans, including 401(k) plans.

The way I see it, the Obama administration can see the financial train wreck that’s going to occur. So it’s rushing to crack open the safe that holds our retirement money before anyone realizes that they’ve been robbed.

And if this plan becomes reality, that’s just what it will be – robbery. American retail investors didn’t sign up for the financial-crisis roller-coaster ride we’ve been on since 2008. We didn’t approve the nation’s five-fold increase in lending capacity. And we certainly didn’t volunteer to help pay down a national debt that’s doubled.

Few people realize that the federal government spent an estimated $17,000 to $25,000 per U.S. household in 2009 (the final figures haven’t been calculated, yet). But that’s no surprise: “We the people” didn’t approve it.

At a point where it’s spending money like a drunken sailor, Washington seems more interested in appropriating and redistributing our retirement savings than it is in fixing a system that’s badly broken. If you add in all the stimulus spending that the taxpayers must now repay, the average government-agency-spending tab has zoomed more than 50% in the last couple of years. That’s right – 50%.

So it’s only logical that the administration would go after our 401(k) and IRA savings plans.

Disgusting, but logical.

Here’s how the argument is likely to be framed.

The system we presently have in place is what’s commonly called a “defined contribution plan.” Under such a plan, the benefits we enjoy during retirement aren’t determined in advance. Instead, those benefits are determined by how much money we contribute while working, and by the performance of the investments that we choose. The 401(k) is almost exclusively a defined contribution plan.

Years ago, Americans depended more upon “defined benefit plans” that promised a steady stream of income at a future date – with the actual amounts determined by our years of service or our earnings history. Old-fashioned company pension plans and even U.S. Social Security are examples of defined benefit plans.

By laying claim to our retirement assets in exchange for 30-year Treasury bonds, annuities or other payout streams, the government will try to persuade us that we’re not capable of managing our own money, that the stock market is too risky a place for most Americans, and that we need Big Brother to hold our hands and protect our futures.

What we need, the administration is going to tell us, is a defined benefit plan.

So expect a big snow job. But here’s the problem.

Defined benefit plans are great only as long as they are well funded. Unfortunately, most aren’t.

In fact, according to various studies, pension funds could already be underfunded by as much as $5.3 trillion. Add that to the $14 trillion we’ve already got on the table and we’re talking a staggering $19.3 trillion – and that’s with no escalators, no cost-of-living adjustments and no interest-rate increases. And that’s assuming we don’t need another round of stimulus.

Here’s what the government isn’t going to tell you. When pension funds transition from defined contribution plans to defined benefit plans, the only backing they have is the underlying assets themselves and the company or entity that’s responsible for the plans – which in this case would be the U.S. government.

If the prospects of your entire future being placed in the hands of the federal government doesn’t scare the daylights out of you after all we’ve experienced so far, I suspect that nothing will.

Our elected leaders, appointed government guardians, and Wall Street have together demonstrated a total inability to manage what they already control. There’s no reason on the planet why they should be allowed to get their hands on our hard-won savings. All that will do is punish the thrifty, disciplined and far-sighted investor, while rewarding – or at the very least protecting – the inept politicians and career bureaucrats who allowed this crisis to occur in the first place.

By backing their plan with 30-year Treasuries, government backers of this plan are betting that you and I won’t notice that the trouble with annuities and long bonds is that they tend to get annihilated by inflation. That’s why even the most jaded professionals will tell you that investing in such instruments right now when interest rates are being artificially held down near 0.00% is bad juju: Interest rates have only one direction to travel – up, which tends to crush bond prices.

Right now, Americans are apparently smarter than the administration believes. In fact, a survey by the Investment Company Institute found that more than 70% of all households disagreed with the idea of requiring a retiree to buy an annuity with a portion of their assets. And it didn’t matter whether the annuity was offered by an insurance company or by the government.

Let’s hope that the full-court press that the administration is getting ready to deploy doesn’t snow American investors. If the government succeeds, we’ll look back and see that they pulled a pretty slick trick to get our support.

Unfortunately, it won’t be the last trick they play with our retirement money. That last trick will come after they have control of our savings – when they make our retirements disappear.

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The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k)

 

The Treasury Is Soliciting Your Feedback Regarding The Proposed Annuitization Of 401(k)

Submitted by Tyler Durden

Yes, slowly but surely it is happening. In a federal notice filed earlier, the DOL and Treasury are soliciting a response on what has been on many investors’ mind, namely the process of converting 401(k)s into annuity-like products. To wit:

The Department of Labor and the Department of the Treasury (the “Agencies”) are currently reviewing the rules under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and the plan qualification rules under the Internal Revenue Code (Code) to determine whether, and, if so, how, the Agencies could or should enhance, by regulation or otherwise, the retirement security of participants in employer-sponsored retirement plans and in individual retirement arrangements (IRAs) by facilitating access to, and use of, lifetime income or other arrangements designed to provide a lifetime stream of income after retirement. The purpose of this request for information is to solicit views, suggestions and comments from plan participants, employers and other plan sponsors, plan service providers, and members of the financial community, as well as the general public, on this important issue.

A cursory read of the document does not seem to ask about a flat out regulatory requirement for annuitization. We point your attention to item 13:

13. Should some form of lifetime income distribution option be required for defined contribution plans (in addition to money purchase pension plans)? If so, should that option be the default distribution option, and should it apply to the entire account balance? To what extent would such a requirement encourage or discourage plan sponsorship?

For readers who feel compelled to respond to this increasignly socialistic and ludicrous development, we suggest you voice your anger at the following address:

  • e-ORI@dol.gov. Include RIN 1210-AB33 in the subject line of the message

Full notice

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