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Archive for the ‘Social Security’ Category

Rick Santelli: How Do YOU Define Ponzi Scheme?!

 

This is pure gold.  Rick Santelli can’t seem to get Mr. Friedman to define ‘Ponzi Scheme.’  You know, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…..

CNBC

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Seven Startling Things Most People Still Don’t Know About The National Debt, Banking And The Money Supply

 

Most people, even smart people, know surprisingly little about the way money really works in Big Government. With the debt ceiling fiasco suddenly raising awareness of the possibility of a total global financial blowout, now seems like a good time to remind people of seven disturbing facts about money that are almost never acknowledge in the old media.

Fact #1 – There is no FDIC insurance fund.

The money at your bank is insured against loss by the FDIC’s insurance fund, right? Nope. That’s total fiction. There is no actual money in the fund. The FDIC insurance money has already been looted by the U.S. Treasury which has simply replaced the money with a bunch of IOUs.

Why does this matter? Because it means that if the U.S. government goes into default, so will the FDIC! And that means all your bank funds have zero insurance. That’s gonna be a big shock for tens of millions of people when they finally figure this out one day…

Fact #2 – There are no social security funds, either.

When you pay social security taxes, all that money goes into a trust fund that’s held for safekeeping until the day it pays you back, right?

Ha! That’s the “sucker’s view” of social security that only ignorant people believe. In reality, there is no money in the social security trust fund because it too has all been looted by the U.S. Treasury and spent. In truth, social security is already broke. Can’t wait for people to wake up and figure this one out, either…

Fact #3 – The U.S. Treasury is stealing money from you every day, even if you pay no taxes!

Here’s a mind-boggling truth that most people just can’t seem to get their heads around: The U.S. Treasury is stealing money from you every single day by the simple fact that they keep creating new money and handing it out to wealthy banksters. Well, technically this is being done by the Federal Reserve, which isn’t even part of the federal government. But it’s all done in cahoots with the Treasury, which is eroding the value of your money through these money creation and distribution actions.

That’s why prices keep going up all around you, folks: Food isn’t suddenly worth more money; the truth is that your money is worth less! That’s how the Treasury and the Federal Reserve steal from you without even breaking into your home.

Probably 99.9% of the population has no understanding of this phenomenon — the erosion of currency valuation through the centralized government printing of more currency.  And yet it is a government scam that has been carried out against citizens of the world time and time again, spanning millennia! As history has clearly shown, every nation that goes down the path of printing more currency to pay its bills eventually ends up in a runaway hyperinflation scenario followed by
economic collapse. The USA will be no different.

Fact #4 – The “balanced solution” isn’t balanced.

Don’t you love the quirky White House Press Secretary who keeps spewing out the phrase “balanced solution” even while the debt deal leaves the U.S. budget entirely unbalanced?

When you’re spending more money than you’re earning, that’s not financial balance. When the White House says “balanced” what it really means is “compromised” — as in, half way between the Republican position (spend us into purgatory) and the Democratic position (spend us into oblivion). Neither party has any real solution to the cancerous growth of Big Government. That’s because they are creatures of Big Government!

Politicians can no more solve the problems of Big Government than arsonists can solve the problem
of office fires. Because they are, themselves, creatures of runaway debt spending (how else do you get elected these days?), they simply do not possess the cognitive framework from which real financial solutions must stem.

Fact #5 – The government is going to steal everything from you before it collapses

Oh my, this is a tough one for people to get their heads around… especially those who naively trust governments to act in the interests of the People. The simple truth of the matter — and I’ve publicly made this prediction before — is that the government is going to STEAL almost everything you own as it heads toward a total financial implosion.

This will include:

• The government theft of private retirement accounts. The feds will claim they’re taking them over “for your protection.”  Yeah, right. And then one day they will simply all vanish. Kiss your IRA
goodbye…

• The government theft of precious metals. Within the next 3 years, watch for a national emergency to be declared, followed by government confiscation of gold and silver. The feds will take your gold and hand you paper money in exchange. The paper money, of course, will be all but worthless shortly thereafter. Only the suckers, of course, will actually turn in their metals…

• Government takeover of your bank accounts. As banks begin to fail in the big collapse, the government will step in and take ownership of the failed institutions, just as it did with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (which used to be publicly-owned companies but are now largely just government finance operations). This will put your bank accounts under the direct control of the White House, which can use executive orders to do things like banning all wire transfers out of the country or limiting daily withdrawals and transfers.  Sure, you’ll still “own” your money in the bank, you just won’t be able to freely access it!

Fact #6 – Most people have no idea about fractional reserve banking, derivatives, the
money supply or the Federal Reserve

It’s not just that most people don’t understand banking and finance; it’s that even members of
Congress
have no idea how all this works. With few exceptions (like Ron Paul), they’re just clueless!

Get this: Even most bankers don’t even know how fractional reserve banking really works. They don’t understand derivatives, either, which is why they screwed them up so badly in the housing boom that crashed in 2007. And because bankers, investors and bureaucrats have no idea how it all works, they unwittingly turn it all into a runaway catastrophe.

Allowing ignorant adults to play with debt and derivatives is like letting infants play with nuclear weapons. It can only lead to something messy.

Fact #7 – Most people are betting their lives on the dollar

People buy insurance for their cars, their homes and even their health. But when it comes to money, 99 out of 100 people in America are betting their entire financial existence on the U.S. dollar! They get their paychecks in dollars, their savings accounts are in dollars, and all their assets are denominated in dollars. As a result, they have no diversity to protect them against dollar devaluation.

That’s kinda crazy, considering just how quickly the dollar could collapse in the near future and become totally worthless. That’s why smart people are diversifying their assets and converting
dollars into land, gold, silver or even storable food. Here in central Texas, even ammunition has a long-term barter value that far exceeds dollars.

Looking around at the financial behaviors of others, I’m just stunned at how many people are betting everything on the dollar because they never realized they had any other option (that’s the way the government likes to keep it, of course!).

Coming soon: A huge national finance education of the masses

Mark my words, folks: The great financial collapse of America is now closer than ever.  While I can’t put an exact prediction date on it, there’s absolutely no doubt that it’s coming. The morons in Washington aren’t doing anything to avoid it, either — they’re all just cashing in as much as they can before the big collapse rolls in.

Bunch of cowards and crooks running this country. They don’t understanding banking and finance, and they’re determined to make sure you don’t either. Because the less you know about what’s really going on, the longer they can continue to loot the U.S. economy while people stand around and do nothing.

How bad is the situation, really? Just yesterday, Vice President Joe Biden called Congressional Tea Party members “terrorists” for their insistence that the U.S. budget be balanced. So now, the mere idea of calling for a balanced budget turns you into a “terrorist” to be prosecuted under the Patriot Act.

And why not? Demanding financial sanity MUST be labeled an act of terrorism for our criminal government to continue its own criminal looting operation. Next we’ll probably see the President ordering the arrest and prosecution of any members of Congress — i.e. “terrorists” — who do not go along with unlimited increased in the debt ceiling.

Now you see what the terrorism laws are really all about: They are legislative weapons to be used against political enemies, not actual terrorists. Meanwhile, Big Government is technically engaged in the use of financial weapons of mass destruction against the People, yet no one notices.

A bizarre world we live in, folks. It is dominated by the mindless masses and run by criminal sociopaths. Those who demand real solutions are labeled terrorists, and those who try to explain all this to everybody else are labeled “alarmists.”

Just wait until this house of cards collapses, though. There will be a day of reckoning in which a whole bunch of apologies will be owed to all those people who tried to warn the nation what was
really happening (and where it would lead us).

Mike Adams for Natural News

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Why Obama’s Lie To Seniors About Social Security Checks Is Pure Evil

 

Obama’s speech was replete with exactly what you would expect, from blaming Bush to blaming corporate jets to all out class warfare on the rich. But one thing he said that I found more offensive than any of it was when he was speaking directly to the American people, not in some interview, but in an address to the nation in which he lied directly to the faces of senior citizens, if you will, suggesting they may not get their social security checks if we don’t raise the debt ceiling and we in turn default. Honestly, if there was a new low that Obama could sink to, then he did tonight. Here’s the super short video so you can see for yourself:

 

He’s just a despicable human being to do this. It’s one thing to lie in an interview, but to lie directly to the American people in his nationwide address – I just don’t think I’ve ever seen this level of evil in the White House.

Now here is why I am so adamant about this being a lie from the pit of hell. We all know that social security checks will go out, but we may not all know exactly why. Let’s just say for the sake of argument that we hit the debt ceiling and there isn’t enough tax payer money to cover social security checks. It doesn’t matter because checks will still go out. Why you ask? Well thanks to Mark Levin’s interview with Mike McConnell tonight, we can answer that question:

 

Levin: First of all you wrote a piece Contrary to the President, Social Security Checks Are Not At Risk. Can you explain why that’s the case?

McConnell: Well that’s true because of the existence of the Social Security trust fund which holds some 2.4 trillion dollars in US Treasury securities for the purpose of paying off Social Security claims. Now in general that doesn’t really help our budget situation but it does mean that the debt ceiling is not a problem for Social Security.

Because if we were to hit the debt ceiling, all that the Social Security trustees need to do is to turn it some of their treasury securities for cash, which they could then use to pay of their obligations. And as they do that, that will lower the total number of US Treasuries outstanding and thus the Treasury can just turn right around and simultaneously sell new bonds to other people to make that up and that would not violate the debt ceiling.

So basically the Treasury securities can be turned in for cash and the Treasury will just re-sell them to make up that money. It’s that simple. And this isn’t rocket science in the White House. The Treasury knows this and Obama knows this as well and yet he is still willing to lie directly to the American people. I’m sorry, but where I come from we call that pure evil.

***

As promised you can watch Obama’s full speech here. But be careful because blood may shoot directly out of your eyes.

The Right Scoop

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Social Security is NOT At Risk On Debt Ceiling

 

To the peanut gallery that don’t “get it”: There is zero risk of Social Security and Medicare checks not going out if the debt ceiling is not raised for the next three years.

Got it?  Zero.

How?   Here’s how:

That total debt number is the amount subject to the limit, more or less.

But the “Intragovernmental Holdings” is the amount that the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are “owed” by the general fund.

The Treasury can redeem those by selling new bonds into the market in a 1:1 ratio and if they do so they now have dollars in an exactly equal amount.

That’s $4.6 trillion dollars.

How much is Social Security and Medicare every year?   That’s easy – we can look at the Trustee report, which says that in 2010 the total expenditures were $1.235 trillion.

Note that these funds also receive tax monies and in 2010 they took in $1.267 trillion.

Wait a second…… they took in more than they spent?  Indeed, which means that the only reason the Treasury has a problem in the present tense is that they have been stealing the tax revenues and replacing them with yet more IOUs.

(Note that due to the boomers retiring and medicare cost advances, which are relentless, both of these funds are bankrupt in the intermediate term.  We’re talking about whether the money exists to pay benefits here and now, not in the future.)

But since those IOUs are counted in the total debt outstanding there is no reason whatsoever to state that Social Security “might” or “would” not be paid, other than as an intentional act of screwing Senior Citizens by Treasury and President Obama, for which they would both be personally responsible.

Let’s make sure you understand this:

THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF FUNDS TO PAY SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE UNDER THE EXISTING DEBT CEILING.  IN FACT, TREASURY COULD PAY THOSE BENEFITS EVEN IF THERE WAS ZERO TAX COLLECTED FROM ANYONE IN THIS COUNTRY FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE – SUCH AS IF UNEMPLOYMENT WAS 100% – FOR A PERIOD OF MORE THAN THREE YEARS, AND NOT VIOLATE THE DEBT CEILING.

President Obama and Tim Geithner are lying and their own data, from their own web sites and the Trustees proves it beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Do not allow the fraudmasters of Washington DC to run their “tanks in the streets” lie once again.

This is simple: Raise the debt ceiling by as little as one dollar, lose your f%$#ing job.

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The Promises That Cannot Be Kept

The government’s promises, for pensions and healthcare and everything else, cannot be kept. We as a nation will eventually have to have a truthful conversation about that reality.

The fact that the Federal government cannot possibly fund the entitlement/ benefit programs that have been promised to the citizenry is well-known, but remarkably unwelcome. I have addressed this difficult reality dozens of times, as have hundreds of other commentators, for example:
To Fix Social Security, First Ask Why It Is Deep in the Red (January 18, 2011)
Is the Recovery “Self-Sustaining”? Here’s a Test (March 22, 2011)
If You Want Solutions, First Pin Down Where the Money Is Going (May 23, 2011)

Bruce Krasting recently penned a wonderful evocation of the bitter “I, Me, Mine” rage this reality triggers in Americans:I go to a 4th of July party (Zero Hedge).

The typical reaction is either denial, mixed with wishful thinking–if only we taxed the rich and cut out war spending, everything could easily be funded indefinitely–or  rage against anything and everyone that threatens the individual’s own share of the swag.

Krasting brilliantly depicts the net result, which I call internecine conflict between protected fiefdoms in Survival+: the constituency of each fiefdom–Social Security, Medicare, Defense, etc.– will undermine the other fiefdoms to maintain their slice of the dwindling Federal pie. This leads to a profound political disunity which cannot be overcome with compromises, as that would require deep cuts in all government programs.

None of this is new. Richard W. Fisher of the Dallas Federal Reserve laid it all out very succinctly back in May 2008, before the global financial meltdown. Now of course, the situation is much worse: Social Security is already deeply in the red, for example, a condition that wasn’t supposed to occur until 2017.  If we removed  Federal and Federal Reserve stimulus, the economy would immediately contract 11%.

The entire notion of entitlements based on age requires an ever-expanding population of working contributors and an ever-expanding economy. If either condition isn’t met, then the programs fail. Fisher’s message is clear: our entitlement programs will fail because there is no way to raise $100 trillion in additional taxes in a declining economy.

Storms on the Horizon:

Please sit tight while I walk you through the math of Medicare. As you may know, the program comes in three parts: Medicare Part A, which covers hospital stays; Medicare B, which covers doctor visits; and Medicare D, the drug benefit that went into effect just 29 months ago. The infinite-horizon present discounted value of the unfunded liability for Medicare A is $34.4 trillion. The unfunded liability of Medicare B is an additional $34 trillion. The shortfall for Medicare D adds another $17.2 trillion. The total? If you wanted to cover the unfunded liability of all three programs today, you would be stuck with an $85.6 trillion bill. That is more than six times as large as the bill for Social Security. It is more than six times the annual output of the entire U.S. economy.

I want to remind you that I am only talking about the unfunded portions of Social Security and Medicare. It is what the current payment scheme of Social Security payroll taxes, Medicare payroll taxes, membership fees for Medicare B, copays, deductibles and all other revenue currently channeled to our entitlement system will not cover under current rules. These existing revenue streams must remain in place in perpetuity to handle the “funded” entitlement liabilities. Reduce or eliminate this income and the unfunded liability grows. Increase benefits and the liability grows as well.

To solve the entitlement deficit problem, discretionary spending would have to be reduced by 97 percent not only for our generation, but for our children and their children and every generation of children to come. And similarly on the taxation side, income tax revenue would have to rise 68 percent and remain that high forever. Remember, though, I said tax revenue, not tax rates. Who knows how much  individual and corporate tax rates would have to change to increase revenue by 68 percent?

For the existing unfunded liabilities to be covered in the end, someone must pay $99.2 trillion more or receive $99.2 trillion less than they have been currently promised. This is a cold, hard fact.

Though I’ve addressed this many times before, let’s walk through it one more time.Let’s start with the income side of the ledger, Total Personal Income in the U.S.:

Total personal income is defined by the United States’ Bureau of Economic Analysis as income received by persons from all sources. It includes income received from  participation in production as well as from government and business transfer payments. It is the sum of compensation of employees (received), supplements to wages and salaries,  proprietors’ income with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and capital consumption  adjustment (CCAdj), rental income of persons with CCAdj, personal income receipts on  assets, and personal current transfer receipts, less contributions for  government social insurance.

In other words, total personal income includes all the entitlement spending and government benefits such as extended unemployment, Section 8 housing, etc. As Mish recently explained, personal transfers now eat up all Federal tax revenues: $2.4 trillion in, $2.4 trillion mailed out.

If we set aside our own fond hopes for Social Security checks being deposited into our personal accounts and Medicare to survive long enough to pay for our own care,  we conclude this is a staggering imbalance.  The promised programs are already consuming every dollar the government collects, and the Baby Boom has barely begun to retire.

Perhaps a few million of the 76 million Boomer generation has started collecting Social Security, and the first Boomers, born in 1946, are just now qualifying for Medicare. That these programs have already expanded to the point that they consume all revenues should give pause to anyone still in the denial or rage stage of the  denial/anger/grief/resignation/acceptance cycle.

Earned Income is flat to down. Here is a chart of total income:

There are two components of income: wages and non-labor, which includes dividends, interest, capital gains, rental income, and other investment income.


Charts: Conerly Consulting

The handsome rebound in Corporate America’s profits–roughly 11% of the entire GDP at $1.6 trillion–and the Fed-engineered “permanent rally” in stocks has goosed non-labor income for the top 10% who own these income streams, but it has also bolstered the pension funds that millions of state and local government retirees depend on. (When the stock and bond markets implode, so will all those pension funds’ promises.)

Personal income has “recovered” only as a result of greatly increased Federal transfer payments. If we subtract all those government transfer payments,  income has cratered:

Government transfers now account for 22% of household income, an unprecedented dependence on Central State checks and benefits:

Click on chart for full-sized chart in a new browser window.

Employment is down and is not recovering. I have addressed why many times,  what author Jeremy Rifkin termed “the end of work.” So any projections based on a rapidly growing workforce are not reality-based.

All the “growth” of the past decade was simply borrowed, as our private and public debt has soared. If you borrow cash from your credit card and spend it, is that really “income”? No. Here is the national “credit card” account. Does that look sustainable?

Notice how much of the decade’s income was equity extraction during the housing bubble.That source of borrow-and-spend is gone.

The problem is that the benefit costs are not static; they’re constantly moving ever higher because the programs are expanding 3, 4 or 5 times faster than the real economy. Here is a chart of local government healthcare and pension costs. Does this look remotely sustainable?

Here is a chart of our national healthcare (a.k.a. sickcare) spending. Compare this rocket-ascent path to the moon with the chart of declining income and the skyrocketing debt.

Many readers suggest that cutting Defense and raising taxes on the wealthy will preserve these entitlement programs. Unfortunately the math doesn’t pencil out, for the reason noted above: when expenses are rising by 6% to 11% a year, every year, and your income remains flat to down, then in a very few years, those expenses will eat up your entire income.

But let’s do the math.Let’s knock a third out of the Defense budget of around $730 billion, saving $250 billion a year. (Never mind the fierce fight that fiefdom would put up.) Let’s increase taxes on the super-wealthy (good luck getting them to pay it) and the plain old wealthy and you might raise $500 billion more a year.

That is questionable for a number of reasons, most saliently that the wealthy already pay most of the Federal income tax, which is quite progressive on earned income:The Problem with “Tax The Rich”: It Won’t Work (May 28, 2010).

The top 5% earn about 22% of the income, and they pay about 60% of Federal taxes. As many readers have pointed out, the total tax burden, including sales tax, property tax, etc. is heavier on lower-income workers as a percentage of income than it is on the super-wealthy (top 1%), who pay around 17% of income in taxes.  But no matter how you slice the data, the fact remains that the top 5%  already pay a hefty percentage of earned income in taxes, and they also pony up 60% of all Federal income taxes.

The top  1% could certainly stand to pay more than 17%, but the problem there is that capital is mobile now and anyone paying taxes on their global income in, say, Switzerland, cannot be made to pay taxes elsewhere on that same income. (Income and corporate taxes are low in Switzerland compared to the U.S. and Europe.)

We can rail against this reality, but capital will flow to the highest returns and lowest tax rates. We should impose the same tax rate on non-labor as we do on labor, and that would raise a a few hundred billion more a year. But let’s also recall that the Federal government is borrowing $1.6 trillion each and every year, fully 11% of the nation’s GDP and 40% of Federal spending, so even $500 billion more simply isn’t going to rectify the budget shortfall or long-term situation.

Studies have found that taxes are remarkably stable at about 20% of GDP. It seems that attempts to raise taxes above that share of the economy trigger blowback in the form of tax avoidance, capital flight, voluntary reductions in income, etc.

But let’s say you do manage to strip out $250 billion annually from Defense and Homeland Security/War on Global Terror (GWOT), and boost tax revenues by $500 billion a year (a 21% increase in total tax revenues).  Together, that would generate $750 billion annually, or $15 trillion over 20 years.

I haven’t found any firm estimates of the unfunded liabilities due in the next 20 years, but since  25% of the entire population (the Baby Boomers) will be retired and drawing on Social Security and Medicare within 15 years, I think we can reckon that about half that $106 trillion will come due in the next 20 years–and that is probably absurdly conservative.

$15 trillion down, $35 trillion to go. Do you see how utterly hopeless this exercise is when Federal spending rises by 6.5% every year even as the underlying economy muddles along at 2% in good years and -5% in poor years, if we subtract borrow-and-spend deficit financing?

In other words, $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities is the number now, but if spending continues rising at triple the rate of the real economy, then that number will only grow.

If we’re honest about our accounting, then the U.S. economy hasn’t grown at all since 2008; it’s shrunk by $6 trillion, a sum we have masked by borrowing and spending $6 trillion in Federal debt, money that replaced the decline of private borrowing and spending.

Please look at the charts of healthcare and local government pension and healthcare costs again.  Those rocket-launch lines shooting higher cannot be funded by a national income that is flat or declining.

We need a national conversation about reality, not wishful thinking. We need to grasp the nettle and talk about triage, about conserving Social Security for those with no other sources of income, and about devoting our scarce resources for palliative and preventive care.  The Status Quo is completely, utterly unsustainable, but that needn’t bring the nation to its knees–unless we actively insist that it does so.
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SS Trust Fund – "We lost $1.1 Trillion last year!"

 

Yes, that is a correct headline. In its annual report to Congress last  week SS acknowledged that its condition had sharply deteriorated in  2010. This sentence from the report is all you really need to know about what the status is:

The open group unfunded obligation over the 75-year projection period has increased from $5.4 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2010) to $6.5 trillion (present discounted value as of January 1, 2011).

Note that this is a present value calculation. The total unfunded  obligation has grown by a cool $1.1 trillion in just a year. In other  words, if we had to shore up the TF to the level that it was just a year ago the USA would have to write a check for $1.1 T. The unfunded status was a disaster a year ago at $5.6T, it got worse by 20% during 2010.  The cost of “fixing” SS goes up as a result. To put things in balance  one of these two extremes are now required:

For the combined OASDI Trust Funds to remain solvent, the payroll tax rate could be increased an immediate and permanent 2.15%, (or) scheduled benefits could be reduced by an immediate and permanent 13.8%.

If you think this a ho-hum result, think again. If benefits get cut  across the board by 14% we will have many seniors who will fall into a  hole. An increase in payroll taxes of 2.15% is simply not going to  happen anytime soon. There is no support in Congress for an increase  like that. It would mean that taxes on all workers/employers would have  to go up by $110b in the first year and rise every year thereafter. This would be a very regressive tax increase that hurts lower end workers  the hardest. For 2011 there is already a payroll tax holiday of 2%. If  the required increases take place in 2012 it would mean a 3.2% reduction in wages. Kiss the economy goodbye under that scenario.

I underlined the TF’s use of the words immediate and permanent as this language highlights the fact there can be no delaying on the fixes necessary at SS. One thing that you can take to the bank is that nothing will happen with SS in 2011 or 2012. This is a problem that will simmer for at least another 24 months. This delay will prove to be very costly for all involved. Both the required  tax increases and/or the required cutbacks will be much larger than  today.

The NPV of the unfunded liabilities at SS are now growing by at least  $100b a month. One would think that this massive cost would spur some  response in D.C. Don’t count on it. As a result, SS is going to come off the rails in about two years.

Zero Hedge

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